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“New Learning” Barnard’s Inn Hall Holborn London EC1N 2HH Tel: +44 (0)20 7831 0575 Fax: +44 (0)20 7831 5208

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Presentation on theme: "“New Learning” Barnard’s Inn Hall Holborn London EC1N 2HH Tel: +44 (0)20 7831 0575 Fax: +44 (0)20 7831 5208"— Presentation transcript:

1 “New Learning” Barnard’s Inn Hall Holborn London EC1N 2HH Tel: +44 (0)20 7831 0575 Fax: +44 (0)20 7831 5208 Email : enquiries@gresham.ac.uk www.gresham.ac.uk © Gresham College 2008 Mercers’ School Memorial Professor of Commerce Michael Mainelli Regulating The Above Average: Luck or Skill?

2 www.gresham.ac.uk © Gresham College 2008 Outline Woe begone days Control structures Skill or luck? Good or bad? Regulating the excellent Popularity measures “Get a detailed grip on the big picture.” Chao Kli Ning

3 www.gresham.ac.uk © Gresham College 2008 Woe Begone Days

4 www.gresham.ac.uk © Gresham College 2008 Above Average Lecter(er)

5 www.gresham.ac.uk © Gresham College 2008 Inconceivable!

6 www.gresham.ac.uk © Gresham College 2008 Luck Or Skill? [Source: http://southportbooze.wordpress.com/2008/06/11/poker-at-the-welly/]

7 www.gresham.ac.uk © Gresham College 2008 Long-Term Application Of Skill [Source: http://image.orientaltrading.com/otcimg/62_9137.jpg]http://image.orientaltrading.com/otcimg/62_9137.jpg

8 www.gresham.ac.uk © Gresham College 2008 Skill Or Luck? Heads/ObverseTails/Reverse

9 www.gresham.ac.uk © Gresham College 2008 Flip!

10 www.gresham.ac.uk © Gresham College 2008 Chance Would Be A Fine Thing FlipChanceCumulativeOdds, 1:x 1H/O0.5 2 2T/R0.50.254 3H/O0.50.1258 4H/O0.50.062516 5T/R0.50.0312532 6H/O0.50.01562564 7H/O0.50.0078125128 8T/R0.50.00390625256 9H/O0.50.001953125512 10T/R0.50.00097656301024

11 www.gresham.ac.uk © Gresham College 2008 Dumb Luck

12 www.gresham.ac.uk © Gresham College 2008 12 Long Years [Source: http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/] ¿?

13 www.gresham.ac.uk © Gresham College 2008 Good Or Bad? (1) George Fabio

14 www.gresham.ac.uk © Gresham College 2008 Good Or Bad? (2) George Fabio R2 = 0.0067 R 2 =0.0026

15 www.gresham.ac.uk © Gresham College 2008 Good Or Bad? (3) George Fabio

16 www.gresham.ac.uk © Gresham College 2008 Finding Faults Commission over omission Losses over gains Present over future

17 www.gresham.ac.uk © Gresham College 2008 Predicting The Above Average Disinformation Chance Skill Complex Simple High Low Gambler ProfessionalScientist Measurable Information

18 www.gresham.ac.uk © Gresham College 2008 Competing Towards Excellence

19 www.gresham.ac.uk © Gresham College 2008 Enforced Regulation Disinformation Enforcement Regulation High Low High Low Confused CumbersomeIneffective Desirable Information

20 www.gresham.ac.uk © Gresham College 2008 Regulating The Above Average Appeal to professional or scientific virtue Use control systems Pin down predictions Promote competition… but avoid measuring popularity in place of performance

21 www.gresham.ac.uk © Gresham College 2008 Discussion 1. Managing skill. 2. Managing luck. [Source: http://www.gammoned.com/backgammon-set-and-setup.html]

22 www.gresham.ac.uk © Gresham College 2008 Regulating The Above Average: Luck Or Skill? Thank you! “Get a big picture grip on the details.” Chao Kli Ning

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