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1 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany.

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Presentation on theme: "1 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill 3-4 July 2007 missed heavy precipitation event in the Western Swiss Alps (Or the art of forecasting precipitations in a mountainous region)

2 2 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill The terrain Geneva Zurich Locarno Bern Lausanne Basel

3 3 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill Heavy precipitation critical thresholds in Switzerland 50mm/24h 100mm/24h

4 4 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill Unseasonably strong westerly flow across the Alps. Passage of an active frontal system in this rapid flow Unusually active warm front and warm sector cold front starting to wave against the Alps Mainly large scale precipitations certainly with a convective component (but no thunderstorms) What happened?

5 5 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill MeteoSwiss Surface analysis – 3 July 2007 12UTC

6 6 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill UK Met Office Surface analysis – 4 July 2007 00UTC

7 7 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill MeteoSwiss 500 hPa analysis – 3 July 2007 12UTC

8 8 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill Western Switzerland WV 5.35 - 7.15 µm 3 July – 18UTC

9 9 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill WV 5.35 - 7.15 µm 4 July – 00UTC Western Switzerland

10 10 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill

11 11 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill ECMWF 01.07.2007 00UTC run – 24h precip for 3 and 4 July

12 12 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill ECMWF 01.07.2007 12UTC run – 24h precip for 3 and 4 July

13 13 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill ECMWF 02.07.2007 00UTC run – 24h precip for 3 and 4 July

14 14 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill ECMWF 02.07.2007 12UTC run – 24h precip for 3 and 4 July

15 15 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill

16 16 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill

17 17 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill

18 18 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill

19 19 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill

20 20 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill

21 21 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill Region receiving more than 50mm/12h

22 22 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill

23 23 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill Hourly Precipitation rate in Aigle, le Bouveret and le Moléson

24 24 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill

25 25 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill Consequences Floods Landslides Mudslides Power outage Fortunately no injuries or deaths!

26 26 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill A new tool – MAP D-PHASE

27 27 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill … and what about forecasting stratus cloud in mountainous regions?

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