1. 1 COMPILING QGDP OF THE SERVICES SECTOR ACTIVITIES - DATA SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY Ramesh Kolli Additional Director General Central Statistical Organisation, India

2. 2 DECISIONS TO BE TAKEN BEFORE STARTING QNA GVA by industry and/or GDP expenditures Compilation level Sources of data Method of compilation Current or constant prices first Release timeliness

3. 3 GVA by industry and/or GDP expenditures In developing countries, it is easier to produce production GDP Can also produce GDP expenditures, using same sources of data (GFCF-construction and output of services), and external sector transactions

4. 4 Compilation level Assess the available data sources at as disaggregated industry level as possible –QNA estimates to be compiled at that level –With computerization, the process should not be time-consuming However, will be less detailed than annual estimates

5. 5 Sources of data Same sources as those used in ANA Quarterly surveys/Admn. records Proxy indicators

6. 6 Sources Quarterly economy-wide enterprise surveys Quarterly retail trade surveys Quarterly labour force surveys Tax data – disaggregated by industries Quarterly financial results of companies Government expenditures Administrative data Foreign trade

7. 7 Proxy indicators Can be several – which are closer to the reality? –Index of industrial production –Building materials for construction –Service production/turnover index –Labour input –Sometimes even population data –Quantity indicators –Labor input –Other input indicators (government)

8. 8 Method of compilation Current or constant prices first? –Depending on source data being from enterprise surveys and financial results of corporations or tax data or generally in nominal prices –Current prices first and using a corresponding price index to get constant prices Quantum or volume indicators – labour input, IIP, production of building materials, agriculture production –Constant prices first and use price indices as inflators to get current price estimates Is there any systematic bias? – generally upward

9. 9 Release timeliness Definitely before the end of next quarter Preferably 45 days

10. 10 Most common indicators for service industries Wholesale and retail trade and hotels & restaurants –Quarterly enterprise survey/retail trade survey-turnover –Quarterly financial results of corporations –Tax data – taxes collected from this industry –number of guest nights for establishments providing accommodation India – extrapolating with –Gross trading index for informal sector –Deflated Quarterly financial results of corporations for others –Sales of motor vehicles

11. 11 Railways Passenger kilometers Freight tonne kilometers Revenue earnings

12. 12 Other transport and storage Quarterly surveys/financial results Volume of transported goods India Road –Number of commercial vehicles on road and passenger kms Air –Domestic and international passenger and freight kms Water –Cargo handled in major ports Services –Combined growth rates of above three Storage –One fourth of annual forecast

13. 13 Communication Administrative data on number of telephone calls, postal articles –number of minutes of telephone service, number of letters handled, number of telegram words, etc Quarterly financial results/enterprise surveys India –Stock of telephone connections and postal revenue

14. 14 Banking and insurance Volume of loans and deposits Financial results Insurance premiums collected India –Aggregated deposits and credits –Net insurance premium collected for both life and non-life

15. 15 Ownership of dwellings Stock of dwellings India –Extrapolated stock of dwellings

16. 16 Real estate and business services Quarterly enterprise surveys/financial results Labour input India –Software companies – financial results –Exports of software –Quarterly financial results of companies

17. 17 Public administration and defence Government expenditures Labour input India –Government revenue expenditures, excluding interest payments

18. 18 Other services Expenditures on education and health Labour input Population growth India –Extrapolated expenditures on education and health –Population growth (some of the personal services) –1/4 th of Annual extrapolations

19. 19 References System of National Accounts 1993 (http://unstats.un.org/unsd/sna1993/toctop.asp)http://unstats.un.org/unsd/sna1993/toctop.asp IMF (2001): Quarterly National Accounts Manual—Concepts, Data Sources, and Compilation (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/qna/2000/Textbook/) OECD (2001): Quarterly National Accounts: Sources And Methods Used By OECD Member Countries (http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/57/36/1909562.pdf) Francois Lequiller and Derek Blades, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (2006): Understanding National Accounts Central Statistical Organisation (2007): National Accounts Statistics: Sources and Methods (http://mospi.gov.in/mospi_cso_rept_pubn.htm)

20. 20 Thanks