1. The External Environment for Developing Countries February 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group

2. Sharp contraction in global production Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG. global industrial production, ch% (3m/3m saar)

3. Deteriorating credit quality for Emerging Market Sovereigns Upgrades minus Downgrades Source: Bloomberg, EMTA and DECPG Finance Team. * as of Feb-13, 2009

4. Industrial countries

5. Source: Department of Commerce and DECPG calculations. U.S. GDP falls 3.8% in fourth quarter on consumption and investment growth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points Stocks Government Consumption Investment Net Exports

6. 4 million persons have joined the jobless queue since start of 2009 initial claims for unemployment insurance, weekly, 4week-ma Source: U.S. Department of Labor. weekly 4-wk moving-avg

7. Retail sales and industrial production off to tough start in 2009 retail sales and IPmfg, ch% saar Source: Department of Commerce, Federal Reserve. Retail sales Production

8. Source: Japan Cabinet Office and DECPG calculations. Japan GDP plummets 12.7% as exports, capital spending drop sharply in Q4-08 growth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points Government Consumption Investment Stocks Net Exports

9. Japan’s trade and production suggest more bad news to come export volumes and manufacturing output, ch% saar Source: Bank of Japan and Japan Cabinet Office. IP [Left] Export volume [R]

10. Labor market, consumer sentiment point to further slide in spending unemployment rate, cash wage (ch% y/y) [L]; Consumer confidence [R] Source: Japan Cabinet Office. Unemployment rate [L] Consumer confidence [R] Cash wage (ch%) [L]

11. European recession intensifies to worst in twenty years in Q4-08 GDP growth at seasonally adjusted annual rates Source: EUROSTAT and DECPG calculations.

12. European exports drop at year-end 2008 export volumes: Germany and France, ch% saar Source: EUROSTAT through Thomson/Datastream. Germany France

13. Concerns about European banks and weaker member states mounting DAX and CACI Index Jan07=100 [left]; IFO overall [R] Source: Thomson/Datastream and IFO. IFO overall [R] CACI [L] DAX [L]

14. Industrial production

15. Sharp contraction in global production with further shrinkage envisaged Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG. Industrial production, ch% (3m/3m saar) Forecast Global production Developing countries

16. GDP contracted in the fourth quarter in emerging economies as well Source: DECPG. GDP in Russia, ch% (3m/3m saar)

17. A rebound in China’s output growth? CLSA/MARKIT PMI:Mnf - Output NBS PMI Mnf New Exp Orders Forecast Industrial production, ch% (3m/3m saar) Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG. IP

18. International trade

19. OECD imports almost “off a cliff” at year-end 2008 import volumes: U.S., Japan and France, ch% saar Source: National Agencies through Thomson/Datastream. USA Japan France

20. Imploding East Asia trade export values (USD), ch% saar Source: National Agencies through Haver Analytics. JapanChina Korea Taiwan (PC)

21. Trade balances shift as terms of trade and crisis effects accrue balance of goods trade in local currency: U.S. and Japan Source: National Agencies through Thomson/Datastream. USA [Left] Japan [Right]

22. Oil prices

23. Crude oil prices stabilize on OPEC production cuts $/bbl World Bank Average Price Source: Thomson/Datastream and DECPG Commodities Group.

24. Crude oil inventories still rising on weak demand M bbl 5-year high-low ranges Source: U.S. Department of Energy and DECPG Commodities Group.

25. Crude price differentials diverge on rising U.S. stocks and OPEC cuts $/bbl WTI Brent Dubai Source: Thomson/Datastream and DECPG Commodities Group.

26. Non-oil commodity prices

27. Food prices rebound in January on supply concerns (2000=100) Source: Datastream and DECPG Commodities Group.

28. Metals prices stabilize on production cuts Cu $/ton Zn $/ton Zinc Copper Nickel Source: LME and DECPG Commodities Group.

29. Gold prices rise on safe-haven buying $/toz$/euro Gold price $/euro Source: Datastream and DECPG Commodities Group.

30. International Finance

31. January capital flows feature a modest revival in bond issuance Source: DECPG Finance Team.

32. Several BRICs have posted strong equity gains over 2009 to date Total return in LCU, 2009 to date (%) Source: Bloomberg and DECPG Finance Team.

33. Deteriorating credit quality for Emerging Market Sovereigns Upgrades minus Downgrades Source: Bloomberg, EMTA and DECPG Finance Team. * as of Feb-13, 2009

34. Currencies

35. Source: Thomson/Datastream. yen/U SD USD/Euro (inverse) Dollar continues gains against euro modest upturn vis-à-vis yen USD per Euro (inverse) [Left] and Yen per USD [right]

36. Pro-euro interest differentials narrow as more bullish ECB reponse expected USD Libor and EURIBOR (6 months), percent EURIBOR 6 months USD LIBOR 6 months Source: Thomson/Datastream.

37. Emerging market currencies largely down vs the dollar over 2009 to date percentage change (USD per LCU) (%) Source: Thomson/Datastrea m.

38. The External Environment for Developing Countries February 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group