1. 2012 Wildfire Season Outlook

2. “Recent” Wildfire History Winter 2001-2002 – VERY DRY followed by the Summer 2002 – Colorado Hayman Fire Coal Seam Fire Missionary Ridge Fire Big Fish Numerous other fires

3. 2001-02 Versus 2011-12 SNOTEL Annual Precip. % as of 5-10-12 01-02 11-12 Yampa & White River Basin: 67 % 69 % Upper Colorado River Basin: 61 % 66 % Gunnison River Basin: 60 % 73 % Dolores/San Miguel R. Basin: 53 % 81 % Missionary Ridge – Summer 2002

4. Gunnison River Basin SNOTEL SWE - Oct. 1 – May 10

5. Upper Colorado River Basin SNOTEL SWE - Oct. 1 – May 10

6. Yampa-White River Basin SNOTEL SWE - Oct. 1 – May 10

7. San Miguel River Basin SNOTEL SWE - Oct. 1 – May 10

8. Dolores River Basin SNOTEL SWE - Oct. 1 – May 10

9. San Juan River Basin SNOTEL SWE - Oct. 1 – May 10

10. SNOTEL Current S.W.E.

11. Precipitation % of Normal 10/1/11 – 5/1/12 Based on all precipitation reporting sites

12. Soil Moisture % of Normal 10/1/11 – 5/6/12

13. Historical ENSO Influence ? Winter 2001-2002 - Neutral Winter 2011-2012 - La Nina 2 nd consecutive La Nina winter

14. Historical ENSO Influence ? Since 1900, there have been 11 back-to-back La Nina winters In western Colorado... 9 events - 2 nd year drier than first 2 events - 2 nd year wetter than first ( early 1950s & mid 1970s) Dr. Klaus Wolter, NOAA Research Scientist

15. Drought Assessment 5/8/12

16. Drought Assessment – 5/8/12

18. May 2012 Climate Outlook Precipitation Temperatures

19. Early Summer 2012 Precipitation Temperatures

20. Late Summer-Early Fall 2012 Monsoon Season Precipitation Temperatures

21. Winter 2012-2013 ??? “…equal chances of Neutral or [weak] El Niño conditions…“ Climate Prediction Center 5-3-12

22. NWS Grand Junction Geared Up for Active Fire WX Season wx.gov/gjt