1. National Senior Certificate Examinations - 2012 Presentation to Portfolio Committee
12 February 2013

2. Presentation Outline Introduction Overall systemic improvements
Quality improvements
Lessons from Standardisation
Diagnostic subject analysis
Interventions
Qualification challenges
Umalusi Concerns
Conclusion

3. Introduction

4. Introduction
The education enterprise is a complex activity which is multifaceted and dependent on a host of intervening variables.
The outcome of the NSC examination is the most important indicator of the performance of the system.
The NSC as a qualification has been implemented for the last five years
Therefore it is appropriate to reflect on the NSC:
- as a qualification
- learner performance

5. Introduction
The national curriculum has established itself over the past five years:
Teachers have adjusted to the national curriculum standards
Remediation programmes have yielded steady improvements
Improved allocation of resources to schools
Ongoing provision of professional support to educators and administrators
Established processes, policies and practices in the national examination and assessment system
Teachers, subject advisors and the examining panels have come to grips with the national curriculum and its associated assessment

6. The Class of 2012 Entered Grade 1 in 2001.
Born in the year when the new democratic dispensation was ushered in.
Education systems and processes were fairly stable.
Exposed to implementation of new curriculum

7. Introduction
Action Plan 2014, Towards Schooling 2025, sets specific targets:
Increase the number of learners eligible for bachelors study.
Increase the number of Grade 12 learners who pass Mathematics
Increase the number of learners who pass Physical Science

8. Overall Systemic Improvements

9. NSC performance: 2008 to 2012

10. Province
Total Wrote
Total Achieved
% Achieved
Ranking
% Achieved in 2011
% Achieved Difference
EASTERN CAPE
63 989
39 443
61.6 9
58.1
3.5
FREE STATE
24 265
19 676
81.1 3
75.7
5.4
GAUTENG
89 627
75 214
83.9 1
2.8
KWAZULU-NATAL
93 003
73.1 6
68.1
5.0
LIMPOPO
77 360
51 745
66.9 8
63.9
3.0
MPUMALANGA
47 889
33 504
70.0 7
64.8
5.2
NORTH WEST
27 174
21 609
79.5 4
77.8
1.7
NORTHERN CAPE
8 925
6 661
74.6 5
68.8
5.9
WESTERN CAPE
44 670
36 974
82.8 2
82.9
-0.1
NATIONAL
73.9
70.2
3.7

11. 2012 NSC passes by type of qualification
Province
Total Wrote
Achieved Bachelor
% achieved Bachelor
achieved Diploma
% achieved Diploma
Achieved Higher Certificate
% achieved Higher Certificate
Achieved NSC
% achieved NSC EC
63 989
11 246
17.6
16 148
25.2
11 998
18.8 51
0.1 FS
24 265
6 937
28.6
8 553
35.2
4 181
17.2 5
0.0 GP
89 627
32 449
36.2
30 422
33.9
12 335
13.8 8
KZN
34 779
27.3
36 841
29.0
21 274
16.7
109 LP
77 360
15 324
19.8
20 103
26.0
16 301
21.1 17 MP
47 889
9 495
14 277
29.8
9 633
20.1 99
0.2 NW
27 174
7 445
27.4
9 151
33.7
5 010
18.4 3 NC
8 925
2 055
23.0
2 787
31.2
1 819
20.4 WC
44 670
16 317
36.5
14 599
32.7
6 053
13.6
National
26.6
29.9
88 604
17.3
297

12. Admission to Bachelor Studies (target of 32%)

13. Proportion of 22-25 year-olds with matric since 2002
Source: STATS SA General Household Surveys,

14. Achievement - Bachelor Studies
Sector on track to achieve target for 32% of Grade 12s able to be admitted for Bachelor degree studies (currently at 26,6% in 2012 from 24.3% in 2011 and 19.9% in 2008)
Over 15, 000 increase year on year
2011 was low for historical reasons so growth in improvements of the order of 10% anticipated

15. Achievement Status per Quintile
Quintile None
Totals
Achieved Bachelor
16 296
19 752
25 252
18 497
46 795
9 253
202
Achieved Diploma
26 885
30 251
34 476
24 179
29 851
7 113
126
Achieved H-Cert
21 208
22 504
22 083
11 660
8 052
3 067 30
88 604
Achieved NSC
167 72 39 8 11
297
Total Achieved
64 556
72 579
81 850
54 344
84 698
19 444
358
Quintiles:
1 to 5
Lowest to highest ranked 99
Independent/Special/Private Schools
None
No Quintile not available

16. Number of candidates in schools per percentage interval per quintile
% Interval (Schools)
Quintile 1
Quintile 2
Quintile 3
Quintile 4
Quintile 5
Total
Exactly 0% 37 9 56
102
No with 0 to 19.9%
1 671
2 142
920 67
168
4 968
No with 20 to 39.9%
9 731
7 688
6 285
1 302
774
25 780
No with 40 to 59.9%
23 828
23 497
22 565
7 389
2 268
79 547
No with 60 to 79.9%
35 937
44 762
46 929
28 662
12 215
No with 80 to 100%
26 671
29 879
39 065
32 903
77 971
Exactly 100%
1 227
1 036
1 953
1 208
14 635
20 059
99 102
71 531

17. Candidates’ performance in selected subjects 2008 – 2012 (at 30% level)

18. Number of Districts per Percentage Interval – 2011 / 2012
Province
Total number of Districts
Below 50%
50% to 59.9%
60% to 69.9%
70% to 79.9%
80% and above
2011
2012
Eastern Cape 23 5 3 6 7 8 4
Free State 1
Gauteng 15 10 12
KwaZulu-Natal 9
Limpopo
Mpumalanga 2
North West
Northern Cape
Western Cape
Total 81 22 18 25 21 28

19. Quality Improvements

20. Quality Improvements
Comparing the achievements of 2012 to that of 2011, the following is a confirmation of the improvement in quality:
more bachelor passes
Nine of the gateway subjects improved at 30% achievement level.
Eight of the gateway subjects improved at the 40% achievement level.
more candidates passed Mathematics (at 30%)
more candidates passed Mathematics (at 40%)
more candidates passed Physical Science (at 30%)
8 967 more candidates passed Physical Science (at 40%)

21. Quality Improvements
Comparing the achievements of 2012 to that of 2011, the following is a confirmation of the improvement in quality:
(h) Increase in the distinction rate across key subjects.
(i) Of the 81 districts, only three performed below 50% (5 in 2011)
(j) Number of districts performing above 80% increased from 21 to 28.
(k) Gini coefficient decreased from to

22. Lessons from Standardisation

23. Standardisation of Results
Ensures that the cohort of learners is not advantaged or disadvantaged by fluctuations of results.
Mitigates fluctuations of learner performance as a result of factors other than learner performance.
Standardisation is based on comparing the performance of the current cohort with previous cohorts. Therefore, standardisation may reveal problems relating to:
the standard of the question paper.
the standard of the marking.
poor subject performance.

24. Standardisation of Results
Year
Subjects
Raw marks
Adjusted downwards
Adjusted upwards
2010 58 39 10 9
2011 56 45 8 3
2012 61 44 12 5

25. Lessons
Acceptance of the majority of the marks based on raw marks, points to the setting of question papers of the appropriate standard and confirms that the marking standards are in keeping with previous years.
Downward adjustments based on the premise that:
the question paper was possibly less challenging than previous years; or
the improvement in the performance of candidates is justified, but too high for one year.
Upward adjustments based on the premise that:
the paper could have been more challenging than in previous years.
learner performance of this cohort has deviated from previous years due to poor teaching and learning.

26. Lessons Downward Adjustments (12 subjects):
Accounting, Physical Sciences, Geography, Tourism, Design, Dramatic Arts, Civil technology, Electrical Technology, English First Additional Language, Xitsonga Home Language, Tshivenda Home language and Sesotho First Additional Language.
These subjects will be closely scrutinised by the examiners to ensure that the appropriate standard is set in 2013.
In terms of NSLA, this is a confirmation that the NSLA strategy is beginning to bear fruit in these subjects, and PEDs should be encouraged to continue with the interventions.

27. Lessons
DBE will explore and develop a method of establishing the impact of these interventions so that the required evidence can be provided to Umalusi to inform the standardisation process and avoid the downward adjustment.

28. Lessons Upward Adjustments (5 subjects)
Life Sciences, English Home language, Afrikaans Home language, Isizulu Home Language and Mathematical Literacy.
The examining panels will conduct a review of these papers to confirm if there were indeed of a higher standard
These 5 subjects must be the focus of the NSLA in the current year, so as to improve performance in these subjects

29. Diagnostic subject Analysis

30. Purpose of Subject Analysis
Provides feedback to learning and teaching and assists in school based diagnostic assessment and intervention
Communicate to teachers and subject advisors the common areas of weakness in the subject and ensures that these areas are constructively addressed in the teaching programme planned for 2013

31. Scope and Approach
The report covers 11 of the subjects with high enrolments namely: Accounting, Mathematics, Physical Sciences, Agricultural Science, Business Studies, Economics, English First Additional Language, Geography, History, Life Sciences and Mathematical Literacy.
Subject analysis based on:
input provided by markers;
analysis of a selected sample of scripts

32. Generic Improvements
Improvement in the quality of answers provided, which confirms that improvement strategies are making a difference.
Gradual consistent improvement in the pass rate in each of the subjects analysed both at the 30% and 40% achievement levels.
Fewer candidates scoring between 0-29% in most of the subjects.
Improved performance in Accounting and Physical Science was observed. Possibly due to an increase in the number of candidates who offered these subjects in combination with Mathematics

33. Generic Shortcomings
Inadequacies relating to foundational knowledge and skills; and basic concepts and principles which negatively impact on advanced learning and understanding.
Inadequate numerical skills required to do simple calculations in Mathematics as well as other subjects where numerical skills were assessed.
Lack of linguistic skills: lack of appropriate language skills which are required to interpret questions and write proper paragraphs. Text based questions - poorly answered.
Failure to apply knowledge and skills. Questions requiring application, higher order thinking skills like problem solving, analysis and evaluation registered the worst performance across all the subjects analysed.
Inadequate preparedness of candidates for the examination, which manifested as a lack of mastery of content

34. Mathematics

35. There was a decrease in the percentage of candidates who performed at 0-29% in 2012 compared to 2011; An improvement in the number of candidates who performed at each of the categories from 40% and above.

36. Maths P1: Average marks per question expressed as a percentage
Content assessed Q1
Algebra, equations and inequalities Q2
Patterns and sequences Q3 Q4
Functions and graphs Q5 Q6 Q7
Annuities and finance Q8
Calculus Q9
Q10
Q11
Linear Programming

37. Maths P2: Average marks per question expressed as a percentage
Content assessed Q1
Data handling Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5
Analytical geometry Q6 Q7
Transformation geometry Q8
Trigonometry Q9
Q10
Trigonometry functions
Q11
Q12
Q13

38. Key areas of Concern
Proposed Interventions
Poor understanding of the basics and foundational competencies taught in earlier grades such as Algebraic manipulations, factorisation, solutions of equations and inequalities.
Focus on knowledge, skill and concepts taught in earlier grades.
Learners should be first taught the concepts and question papers should be utilized for practice.
Expose learners to non-routine questions more regularly. It is not possible to predict the nature of problem solving questions that will be assessed year on year, therefore regular exposure to non routine questions will assist in developing learners problem solving thinking skills.
Learners should be exposed to a variety of questions, not just ‘stimulus-response’ questions, and not limited to those appearing in past question papers
The following topics: Analytical geometry, trigonometric functions, calculus, functions and graphs need focused attention
Over dependence and focus on previous papers without proper grounding and understanding of the concepts. Candidates therefore regurgitate answers to similar questions from previous papers.
Q 10 on calculus, and Q 5 on functions and graphs in P1; Q 10 on Trigonometric functions in P2 registered the worst performance of 24% average nationally .

39. Accounting

40. In 2012, there was a decrease in the percentage of candidates who performed at 0-29% compared to An improvement in the number of candidates who performed at each of the categories from 40% and above.

41. Average marks per question expressed as a percentage
Content assessed Q1
Inventories and VAT Q2
Bank reconciliation and debtors’ age analysis Q3
Manufacturing Q4
Company financial statements and fixed assets Q5
Interpretation of company information Q6
Projected income statement and internal control

42. Key areas of Concern
Proposed Interventions
Lack of proper understanding of basic accounting concepts, basic formats for cash flow and balance sheets
Knowledge and understanding of the basic formats used in Accounting forms the basis of all Accounting and should be focused on by teachers.
Basic theory and basic formats possibly not covered or not well taught, as candidates responses lacked mastery
Curriculum coverage needs to be closely monitored
Question 2 on Bank Reconciliation and debtors analysis registered the least average performance (this topic is taught in grade 11 )
Revision of relevant Grades 10 and 11 content required for examinations in grade 12
Q6 on projected income statement and internal control also noted poor performance.
Preparation of cash budgets, projected income statements, and interpretation thereof needs focus

43. Physical Sciences

44. General improvement in performance in Physical Science in 2012 compared to 2011 .

45. Physical Sc. P1: Average marks in each question expressed as a percentage
Content assessed Q1
One word items Q2
Multiple choice questions Q3
Vertical projectile motion Q4
Momentum and relative velocity Q5
Work and energy Q6
Doppler Effect Q7
2D and 3D wave fronts Q8
Parallel plate capacitors and electric fields Q9
Electric Circuits
Q10
AC circuits
Q11
Photo-electric effect

46. Physical Sc . P2: Average marks per question expressed as a percentage
Content assessed Q1
One-Word Items Q2
Multiple Choice Q3
Nonmenclature of organic compounds Q4
Physical properties of organic compounds Q5
Reactions of organic compounds Q6
Rate of reaction Q7
Chemical equilibrium Q8
Galvanic cells Q9
Electrolyctic cells
Q10
Batteries
Q11
Fertilisers

47. Key areas of Concern
Proposed Interventions
Some centres performed really well and others displayed a serious lack of knowledge which suggests that candidates may not have been taught certain portions of the content
Knowledge and understanding of the concepts in the subject
Syllabus completion must be monitored closely
Lack of knowledge of basic definitions.
Lack of exposure to practical work was evident in the nature of responses provided by a number of candidates on questions based on practical work.
Rate of reaction (P2), and diffraction and interference (2D and 3 D wave fronts ) in P1 need greater attention in 2013.
Poor Mathematical skills relating to reading and interpretation of graphs, handling of calculators.
The worst performance in P1 was in Q7 based on 2D and 3D wave fronts (40.1% average score) and in Q6 in paper 2 on rates of reactions (33.2%)

48. Life Sciences

49. Life Sc registered a drop in the pass rate
Life Sc registered a drop in the pass rate. There was an increase in the percentage of candidates who performed at % in 2012, compared to 2011, a drop in the number of candidates between 30% to 59% level.

50. Average performance per question in Life Sciences Paper 1
Content assessed Q1
Multiple choice, matching, terminology and short questions Q2
Meiosis, protein synthesis and monohybrid cross Q3
Pedigree diagram, DNA and genetic modification Q4
Human evolution, phylogenetic tree, natural and artificial selection

51. Average marks achieved per question as expressed as a percentage: P2
Content Assessed Q1
Multiple choice, matching, terminology and short questions Q2
Brain, Eye, Reproduction, Temperature regulation Q3
Population growth form, human population growth and age-gender pyramids Q4
Culling, competition, adrenalin and reflex action

52. Limited knowledge of basic terminology and concepts.
Key areas of Concern
Proposed Interventions
Limited knowledge of basic terminology and concepts.
Emphasis on learning of terminology.
Glossary of biological terminology can be provided
Teachers need to pay attention to skills relating to drawing graphs, interpreting graphs, making conclusions from data (both P1 and P2)
Syllabus completion needs to be ensured. No aspect of the syllabus should be omitted since all aspects are assessed.
Lack of associated Mathematics skills required to draw graphs e.g. pie charts.
Inappropriate interpretation of questions

53. Interventions

54. Generic Interventions
Districts and schools will continue to guide learners in making the right subject choices and combinations
Subject advisors will convene workshops with teachers, where these reports could be thoroughly discussed and mediated, and problem areas addressed with teachers.
Monitoring of the utilisation of the Diagnostic Reports.
Monitoring of syllabus completion
Focused interventions targeting areas of weaknesses highlighted in the report combined with general systemic interventions

55. Assessment Interventions
Improving the Quality of School Based Assessment
Development of quality assessment items (bank of items for SBA)
Publication of exemplars of learner responses to questions in selected subjects (Geography, History, Eng. FAL P3, Economics)
Preparation for NSC 2014 based on assessment as outlined in CAPs
Advocacy
Development of exemplar question papers
Development of examination syllabi/guidelines in all subjects (Gd. 12)

56. Teacher development
Teacher support will be provided in the following ways:
Develop study guides to assist teachers /learners in areas needed
Develop sample lessons on sections where teacher content knowledge has been found to be deficient
Focused training of teachers on specific content
Monitor and support training and implementation of difficult content
Learner support material
Development and distribution of Mind the gap series in certain key subjects on specific content areas with examination practice questions

57. Learner support
Development and distribution of Mind the gap series in certain key subjects on specific content areas with examination practice questions
Provision of self study guides and past question papers for revision

58. Curriculum Coverage
Monitoring tool to track curriculum coverage at school level has been developed.
Monitoring tool will be administered by managers at the various levels in the system.
Reporting on a quarterly basis to the PED and DBE.
DBE to conduct sample verification visits to authenticate the reports

59. Qualification Challenges

60. Pass Requirement – 30%
Public perception that the pass requirements for the NSC are pegged at a low level
This is based on mis-information on the full package relating to pass requirements.
NSC serves as a school leaving certificate, as well as a certificate for admission to higher education – hence the different categories of NSC passes

61. Mathematics/ Maths Literacy
Increasing percentage of learners are migrating to Mathematics Literacy.
Maths Literacy is selected as a soft option but not recognised for admission to University studies in certain faculties.
Issues:
- is the Maths/Maths Literacy divide useful in promoting Mathematics in the country.
- what is the purpose of Maths Lit and is this being achieved.
- what control measures need to be instituted to curb gate-keeping by school principals.

62. Trends in Matric Mathematics since 2008
Numbers wrote maths
Number passed maths
Maths pass rate
Proportion taking maths
Proportion passing maths
2008
298821
136503
45.70%
56.10%
25.60%
2009
290407
133505
46.00%
52.60%
24.20%
2010
263034
124749
47.40%
48.80%
23.20%
2011
224635
104033
46.30%
45.30%
21.00%
2012
225874
121970
54.00%
44.19%
23.86%

63. Life Orientation
Life Orientation focuses on the development of moral, civic, social and physical skills.
Assessment is school based (100%)
Given the inflated performance of learners, LO is not recognised for University admission.
DBE piloted a Common Assessment Task (CAT) developed nationally, in 2012.
Issues:
- Should the assessment of LO be changed to incorporate an external examination?
- Does LO lend itself to external examinations?

64. Life Orientation Issues: - Should LO be retained as a NSC subject?
- What should be done to improve the status of LO.

65. School Based Assessment
SBA still forms 25 % of final mark
Quality of SBA tasks remains an area of concern
How do we improve capacity of teachers to set good quality SBA tasks?
Utilisation of SBA as a means of driving performance

66. Ministerial Committee
Ministerial Committee will be constituted and will commence with their research by April 2013.
Committee will comprise of a Technical Research Team and a broader Reference Group.
Preliminary report will presented to the Minister by July 2013.

67. Umalusi Concerns

68. Question Papers
(a) Non adherence to time frames and the 18 month cycle
Eighteen (18) month cycle to be progressively implemented (2013 – 2014).
In 2013, Umalusi prescribed timeline of first moderation April 2013 and final moderation by July 2013, will be adhered.
The panel for 2014 has been appointed and will commence with the setting process in April 2013 (well ahead of schedule)
Separate panel has been appointed for each paper, per subject to reduce time required for setting and to improve quality

69. Competency of examiners/capacity of panels
Rigorous recruitment process has been concluded. Panels have been reviewed for 2013 / 2014
Examiners subjected to a competency test based on subject knowledge and assessment skills.
Performance of examiners is evaluated on an annual basis. Appointment extended based on performance status.
Intensive training session scheduled for March 2013 – focus on question taxonomies.

70. SBA and Life Orientation:
(a) Poor quality and standard of school based assessment tasks
Exemplar assessment tasks will be developed and distributed to schools (for both SBA and LO).
Common Assessment Task (CAT) for Life Orientation to be administered in September 2013.
DBE will conduct a national moderation of the June and Preparatory examinations in seven (7) key subjects.
Moderation systems at school, district and provincial levels will be rigorously monitored by the DBE.

71. SBA and Life Orientation
The national panel of moderators will be deployed to selected districts to conduct moderation of SBA and LO
Exemplars of learner evidence (responses) from the 2012 NSC examination will be published with the marking comments and awarded scores.

72. Marking (a) Marker competency:
Policy and Regulations on the implementation of competency tests for markers will be approved by the Minister and published by March 2013.
Will be implemented in seven (7) key subjects and will form part of the criteria utilized for the appointment of markers.
Early administration will allow for a training programme to be implemented prior to the marking process.

73. Marking
Report on the outcome of the re-mark results to be shared with each of the PEDs.
Assist in identifying subjects with significant variations.
Markers will be brought to account where there are major changes.
DBE to conduct random audit of markers appointed by PEDs.
More intensive moderation of marking by PEDs and DBE.

74. Administration of Examinations
Examination processes across all PEDs will be standardised through the use of standard operating procedures, outlined in Examination Process Manuals .
Security across the whole exam system will be enhanced through the declaration of examinations as a national priority by NATJOC.
Printing quality and accuracy will be given attention through intensive monitoring and ensuring compliance to control processes.

75. Conclusion
The data emanating from NSC 2012 and prior, has been analysed closely to ensure that important trends are identified and acted upon.
The Ministerial Committee which is in the process of being constituted by the Minister will address the curriculum challenges that are emanating from the five year review.
The Diagnostic Report which focuses on the key subjects must be discussed with all subject advisors and teachers so that these shortcomings are decisively addressed in 2013.