1. 1 Challenge the future Feed forward mechanisms in public transport Data driven optimisation dr. ir. N. van Oort Assistant professor public transport EMTA Meeting London, TfL October 2014

2. 2 Challenge the future Developments in PT industry More attention to cost efficiency Customer focus Limited (number of) investments Enhanced quality Main challenges: Increasing cost efficiency Increasing customer experience Motivating new strategic investments Data enable achieving objectives

3. 3 Challenge the future Operations and feedback Strategic Tactical Operational Driver/ Control room APC AVL Customer surveys Real-time feedback loop Long term feedback loop

4. 4 Challenge the future Data sources GSM data; tracking travellers -Potential public transport services Vehicle data (AVL); tracking vehicles -Evaluating and optimizing performance Passenger data (APC); tracking passengers -Evaluating and optimizing ridership and passengers flows WiFi, Bluetooth, video data - Tracking pedestrian flows Combining data sources (APC and AVL) -Service reliability from a passenger perspective

5. 5 Challenge the future The challenge -New methodologies -Proven in practice -Data -Information -Knowledge -Improvements -Evaluation -Forecasts

6. 6 Challenge the future - Monitoring and predicting passenger numbers: Whatif - Vehicle performance and service reliability Quantifying benefits of enhanced service reliability in public transport Van Oort, N. (2012)., Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Advanced Systems for Public Transport (CASPT12), Santiago, Chile. - Optimizing planning and real time control Van Oort, N. and R. van Nes (2009), Control of public transport operations to improve reliability: theory and practice, Transportation research record, No. 2112, pp. 70-76. - Optimizing synchronization multimodal transfers Lee, A. N. van Oort, R. van Nes (2014), Service reliability in a network context: impacts of synchronizing schedules in long headway services, TRB - Improved scheduling Van Oort, N. et al. (2012). The impact of scheduling on service reliability: trip time determination and holding points in long-headway services. Public Transport, 4(1), 39-56.Oort, N. Applied examples

7. 7 Challenge the future Smartcard data (1/2) The Netherlands OV Chipkaart Nationwide (since 2012) All modes: train, metro, tram, bus Tap in and tap out Bus and tram: devices are in the vehicle Issues Privacy Data accessibility via operators Data 19 million smartcards 42 million transactions every week Now starting to use the data

8. 8 Challenge the future Smartcard data (2/2) Several applications of smartcard data (Pelletier et. al (2011). Transportation Research Part C) Our research focus: Connecting to transport model Evaluating history Predicting the future Whatif scenario’s Stops: removing or adding Faster and higher frequencies Route changes Quick insights into Expected cost coverage Expected occupancy New generation of transport models: data driven

9. 9 Challenge the future Origin Destination Matrix

10. 10 Challenge the future OD-patterns fictitious data

11. 11 Challenge the future OD-patterns fictitious data

12. 12 Challenge the future -fictitious data

13. 13 Challenge the future -fictitious data

14. 14 Challenge the future -fictitious data

15. 15 Challenge the future -fictitious data

16. 16 Challenge the future -fictitious data

17. 17 Challenge the future -fictitious data

18. 18 Challenge the future -fictitious data

19. 19 Challenge the future -fictitious data

20. 20 Challenge the future -fictitious data

21. 21 Challenge the future -fictitious data

22. 22 Challenge the future -fictitious data

23. 23 Challenge the future -fictitious data

24. 24 Challenge the future Whatif scenarios Adjusting - Speed - Fares - Time of operations - Number of stops - Routes - Frequency Illustrating impacts on (indicators): - Cost coverage - Occupancy - Ridership - On time performance - Revenues

25. 25 Challenge the future Whatif results: Flows increased frequencies

26. 26 Challenge the future

27. 27 Challenge the future Vehicle performance

28. 28 Challenge the future The Dutch approach: GOVI GOVI is a nationwide initiative to make transit data available to authorities and the public. Focus on dynamic traveler information Timetable and AVL data available from the majority of the transit vehicles. -(source: GOVI)

29. 29 Challenge the future GOVI insights -Schedule adherence

30. 30 Challenge the future -Examples: Improving speed and service reliability Speed GOVI insights Dwell time

31. 31 Challenge the future

32. 32 Challenge the future Predicting service reliability Vehicle performance Passenger impacts Travel time impacts AVL data APC data Reliability ratio Additional travel time and variance in travel time units Additional travel time and variance Schedule adherence Transport model - Improved predictions - Predicting and assessing impacts of enhanced service reliability

33. 33 Challenge the future The potential benefits Optimizing network and timetable design: The Netherlands: Potential cost savings: > €50 million Utrecht: € 400.000 less yearly operational costs The Hague: 5-15% increased ridership Amsterdam: ~10% increased cost coverage Tram Maastricht:> €4 Million /year social benefits Light rail Utrecht: : €200 Million social benefits

34. 34 Challenge the future Much data available Data enables quality increase and enhanced efficiency Substantial benefits Evaluating and controlling -> predicting and optimizing Data-> Information -> Knowledge -> Improvements Two applied examples Passenger data and whatif analysis Vehicle performance and service reliability Summary

35. 35 Challenge the future Niels van Oort N.vanOort@TUDelft.nl Research papers: https://nielsvanoort.weblog.tudelft.nl/ Questions / Contact