1. DGVT meeting – Brdo 1-4 March 2008 New insight into future skill needs in Europe Aviana Bulgarelli and Alena Zukersteinova Cedefop

2. DGVT meeting – Brdo 1-4 March 2008 Why skills needs analyses to fill existing information deficits to inform actors on future labour market needs for their decision-making to support evidence-based policy-making in LLL, employment and social policy

3. DGVT meeting – Brdo 1-4 March 2008 Why a European approach Education and skills - key driver for European growth, competitiveness and jobs  need to know which occupations and skills will be required  education and training will develop knowledge and skills, promote innovation, fill potential gaps, support growth and restructuring Approaches to anticipate skills exist in several Member States BUT: not yet well established at European level

4. DGVT meeting – Brdo 1-4 March 2008 Cedefop’s pro-active approach Consistent and comprehensive projections of skill needs across Europe Unique at European level European „team work“  launch and coordination of Skillsnet  towards a European system for early identification of skill needs

5. DGVT meeting – Brdo 1-4 March 2008 In which sectors will employment be growing or declining? Which occupations will be in demand? For which qualifications will demand increase or decrease? Cedefop presents the first European forecast on occupational skill needs … … to answer the following questions

6. DGVT meeting – Brdo 1-4 March 2008 European skills forecasting –comparable information Europe-wide –feasible & cost-effective First stage: demand side (skill needs - jobs) Second stage: supply side (available skills – people) and identification of possible imbalances Next stages: further improvement of methods and data bases; additional research; joint European approach

7. DGVT meeting – Brdo 1-4 March 2008 Modular approach to skill needs forecasting Overview of the Framework Module 1: Macroeconomic and sectoral scenarios Module 2: Expansion demand by occupation Module 3: Expansion demand by qualification Module 4: Replacement demand

8. DGVT meeting – Brdo 1-4 March 2008 Future trends at a pan-European level (EU-25 + ) by sector (up to 41 industries) by occupation (up to 27 occupations) by qualification (3 broad levels) plus replacement demands EU-25 + = EU-25 + Norway and Switzerland

9. DGVT meeting – Brdo 1-4 March 2008 Past and likely future trends by sector (EU-25 + )

10. DGVT meeting – Brdo 1-4 March 2008 Past and likely future sectoral change and structure (EU-25 + )

11. DGVT meeting – Brdo 1-4 March 2008 Past and likely future occupational change (EU-25 + )

12. DGVT meeting – Brdo 1-4 March 2008 Past and likely future occupational structure (EU-25 + )

13. DGVT meeting – Brdo 1-4 March 2008 Replacement demand (EU-25 + )

14. DGVT meeting – Brdo 1-4 March 2008 Past and likely future qualification trends (EU-25 + )

15. DGVT meeting – Brdo 1-4 March 2008 Past and likely future qualification structure (EU-25 + )

16. DGVT meeting – Brdo 1-4 March 2008 Past and likely future qualification structure (Slovenia)

17. DGVT meeting – Brdo 1-4 March 2008 Past and likely future qualification change (EU-25 + )

18. DGVT meeting – Brdo 1-4 March 2008 Qualification requirements increase in all occupations – also in elementary jobs

19. DGVT meeting – Brdo 1-4 March 2008 Key similarities and differences across countries Many common trends: –sectors, occupations, replacement needs, qualifications Some differences: –stage of economic development, different industrial & occupational structures ► process of convergence

20. DGVT meeting – Brdo 1-4 March 2008 Key findings Evolutionary structural change towards service sectors and knowledge-intensive jobs  over 13 million additional jobs by 2015 –Almost 16 million new jobs in service sector –Loss of over 2 million jobs in the primary sector and 0,5 million in manufacturing

21. DGVT meeting – Brdo 1-4 March 2008 Demand for skilled occupations  today 80 out of 210 million people are employed in high skilled non manual jobs. Expected to increase in next decade  jobs requiring generic clerical skills, crafts and agricultural occupations will decline  increases expected in elementary occupations (construction, services)

22. DGVT meeting – Brdo 1-4 March 2008 Qualification needs by 2015  job gains requiring highly (12,5 million) and medium qualified workers (9,5 million), in particular vocational qualifications  job losses for low qualified workers (8,5 million), even in elementary occupations  in 2015, 30% of jobs will need high qualifications, 50% medium. Low qualifications will fall from a third in 1996 to around 20%

23. DGVT meeting – Brdo 1-4 March 2008 Results lead to a knowledge and competence based European model that combines needs for  medium and high qualifications and continuing learning and up-skilling in all jobs  workers in elementary occupations but with growing qualifications

24. DGVT meeting – Brdo 1-4 March 2008 Future priorities Continuing dialogue: with country experts and stakeholders Overcome data problems: policy support needed to refine data Further refinement: the models/framework Complementary research: forecast of skills supply and more detailed analysis of skill needs at enterprise and sectoral level

25. DGVT meeting – Brdo 1-4 March 2008 Contact details for further information: Alena Zukersteinova alena.zukersteinova@cedefop.europa.eu Torsten Dunkel torsten.dunkel@cedefop.europa.eu Cedefop: www.cedefop.europa.euwww.cedefop.europa.eu Skillsnet: www.trainingvillage.gr/skillsnetwww.trainingvillage.gr/skillsnet