1. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Transportation and Global Emissions to 2030 Dr. Fatih Birol Chief Economist Head, Economic Analysis Division

2. World Primary Energy Demand Fossil fuels will continue to dominate the global energy mix, while oil remains the leading fuel

3. Increase in World Primary Energy Demand by Fuel Oil grows most in absolute terms, underpinned by strong demand for transport – especially in developing regions

4. Increase in World Oil Demand, 2002-2030 Most of the increase in oil demand comes from the transport sector – especially in OECD countries -3 2 7 12 17 22 OECDNon-OECD mb/d Power generationIndustryTransportOther

5. Incremental Oil Demand in the Transport Sector, 2002-2030 Transport oil demand in Non-OECD countries will increase three times more than in the OECD 0 10 20 30 40 Total oil demandOil transportNon-OECD oil transport mb/d

6. Road Vehicle Stock The vehicle stock increases much faster in non-OECD regions, though most vehicles will still be in the OECD in 2030

7. New Vehicles Fuel Efficiency, 2002 Scope for improvement in new vehicles fuel efficiency is generally greater in developing countries

8. Environmental Implications

9. CO 2 emissions, 1971-2030 CO 2 emissions will increase fastest in developing countries, overtaking OECD in the 2020s

10. Growth in World Energy Demand & CO 2 Emissions Average carbon content of primary energy increases slightly through 2030 – in contrast to past trends 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 1971-20022002-2030 average annual growth rate Primary energy demandEmissions

11. CO 2 emissions by sector, 1990-2030 CO 2 emissions in power generation and transport are expected to increase the most

12. Incremental CO 2 emissions in the Transport Sector, 2002-2030 Transport accounts for a quarter of total CO2 emissions increase, most of which will come from Non-OECD

13. Vehicle stock and emissions in China Vehicle stock will quadruple in the next 30 years leading to a threefold increase in CO 2 emissions

14. World Alternative Policy Scenario

15. Alternative Policy Scenario Main Policies for Transport Improve vehicle fuel efficiency (e.g. strengthen of US CAFE standards, prolongation of Chinese standards) Increased sales of alternative fuel vehicles and fuels (e.g. biofuels in Europe, Brazil) Mode switching (e.g. increased high speed rail in Japan)

16. World Transport Oil Demand 15 20 25 30 35 40 17 00022 00027 00032 00037 00042 00047 00052 000 GDP (billion 2000 US$ using PPPs) mb/d Global oil demand for transport increases very closely in line with GDP 2003 1971

17. Concluding remarks World energy demand in transport will climb faster than any other end-use sector On current policies, well over 90% of all energy used for transport will be in form of oil products Oil demand increase in transport will be three times higher in developing countries than in the OECD Share of transport in global CO 2 emissions is set to increase New government policies can alter these trends significantly