1. bree.gov.au CEDA Unconventional Energy Options 3 September 2012 Challenges and Opportunities for Unconventional Gas Professor Quentin Grafton Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics

2. bree.gov.au Global Gas Resources and Production

3. bree.gov.au Global Gas Resources

4. bree.gov.au Projected Gas Production 2035 0 200 400 600 800 1 000 Turkmenistan Saudi Arabia Australia Algeria Canada Qatar Iran China United States Russia Conventional Unconventional bcm Unconventional gas could represent 40% of total gas supplied Source: IEA 2011

5. bree.gov.au Projected Primary World Energy Demand Additional to 2035 2010 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 OilCoalGasRenewablesNuclear Mtoe gas & renewables meet more than 60% of incremental energy demand Source: IEA 2011

6. bree.gov.au Australian Resources and Production

7. bree.gov.au Australia’s Gas Resources Source: Geoscience Australia2011

8. bree.gov.au Australian Gas Production

9. bree.gov.au LNG Exports (Volume & Value)

10. bree.gov.au Queensland LNG Projects Under Constructio n Investment (US$b) Train s Start Date Mt QCLNG20220148.5 GLNG19220157.8 APLNG23220169 Total62625.3

11. bree.gov.au Unconventional Gas production

12. bree.gov.au Unconventional Gas

13. bree.gov.au Coal Seam Gas Source: Williams and Pittock 2012

14. bree.gov.au Risks that Require Monitoring Well-bores and their integrity Water injection (hydraulic fracturing), extraction and storage Air quality and noise levels Traffic of vehicles

15. bree.gov.au Better Practices Full community engagement over local concerns (land access protocolos, disclosure, etc.) Effective risk management (venting of gas, water management, etc.) International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that adopting Best Practices would increase costs of production by only about 10%

16. bree.gov.au Gas as a Transitional Fuel

17. bree.gov.au CO 2 Emissions during Electricity Generation (grams per kWh) Source: IGU 2012

18. bree.gov.au Reductions in CO 2 Emissions IEA estimates that with ‘Golden Rules’ in terms of unconventional gas production with adequate environmental practices in place global CO2 emissions would be 1.3% less in 2035. Globally, substitution of coal and oil by gas would projected to reduce global CO2 emissions by 740 Mt in 2035 In Australia, if gas substituted one-for-one for reductions in coal-fired electricity generation and based on BREE’s long-term energy projections by 2035 would have 15% less CO2 emissions in electricity generation sector.

19. bree.gov.au Thank you Quentin.grafton@bree.gov.au