1. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION The Bumpy Road to a Sustainable Future: People, Policy, Politics, Pscience New Systems and Policies to Address our Energy Future Terry Surles California Energy Commission Rockford College, Rockford, IL January 27, 2003

2. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Driving to a Sustainable Future: The “E”s are Linked  Environment  Energy  Economics  Equity  Education

3. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Energy and Environment  Climate change and sustainable development w Energy fuel cycles are leading culprits w Energy choices for the future w What will happen - modeling and speculation  Deregulation Debate w Public access to resources w Public good vs commodities  Role of research and development w Inform decision making w Advance knowledge w Expand market choices

4. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION World GDP to 2030

5. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION World Energy Consumption 1970-2020 (EIA 1999)

6. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION World Electricity Generation by Fuel Source (IEA)

7. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CO 2 Emissions from Power Generation (IEA)

8. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Projected CO 2 Emissions from Electricity Generation by Fuel (million metric tons) EIA 1999

9. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Particulate Matter Concentration from Combustion of Coal, Oil and Natural Gas (US EPA)

10. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Atmospheric CO 2 Concentration Historic Data

11. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Earth’s Surface Temperature Historic Data

12. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION A1 Rapid economic growth, population stabilization A1B balanced tech. mix A1T non-fossil fuel mix A1FI fossil fuel intensive A2 Heterogeneous world, high population growth B1 Convergent world, population stabilization, energy efficient technologies B2 Focus on social and environmental sustainability, moderate population growth IS92a Projections from 1992 Atmospheric CO 2 Concentration Projections (IPCC)

13. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Earth’s Surface Temperature Projections (IPCC)

14. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION

15. US 1997 Carbon Emissions— 1500 MtC

16. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION

17. CEC has a $62M/yr Energy R&D Program for Improving Efficiency and Developing Distributed Resources Carbon Management Efficiency Btu GSP Decarbonization CO2 Btu Sequestration CO2 atm CO2 produced < < <

18. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Reducing Electricity Use by 8% Leads to Additional Environmental Benefits (Emissions Reduction)  2,044 tons CO  2,307 tons NO x  175 tons SO x  263 tons PM 10  600,000 MT CO 2

19. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION California and United States Electricity per Capita Trends Since 1976

20. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Primary Energy Intensity (UNDP) (Energy Consumption per GDP in 1990 US $ using exchange rates) Megajoules / GDP 1970 19801990 2000 20102020 50 100 150 200 China and centr. planned Asia Former Soviet Union Central and Eastern Europe North America Western Europe reportedprojected

21. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION US Refrigerator Use vs Time

22. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Electricity Generating Capacity for 150 Million Refrigerators and Freezers in the US

23. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION

24. Decarbonization = <  Renewables w Affordability w Near-term applicability w NIMBY  Natural gas w Availability at low cost: How long will low-cost reserves last? w Critical infrastructure issues w Distributed technologies/collateral benefits CO 2 Btu

25. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION PowerLight’s PowerGuard PowerLight’s insulated 30 year roof system reduces building air conditioning loads while it’s PV surface generates electricity during hot and expensive peak summer hours While California is known for its hot dry summers, that same solar resource provides a clean, safe and reliable way to generate electricity

26. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION The Yolo County Success Accomplishments w Is opening the way for landfill gas electricity systems to be more widely used in California Accelerates gas production from over 30 years to less than 10 years, making landfill electricity more competitive Reduces volume of landfill which can extend landfill life by 20 percent Significantly reduces the chance for groundwater pollution from leachate release w Has become the leading bioreactor project within EPA’s XL Program and will strongly influence landfill regulations across the country CEC’s Role w Through the CEC’s R&D programs, we’re bringing bioreactor technology from concept to reality Control cell without bioreactor Enhanced bioreactor cell

27. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION WTCs Low Cost Wind Turbine Wind parks supply over 1600 MW of California’s electricity capacity. An additional 5000 MW of new wind is undeveloped due to lower wind speeds that are too expensive to harness Capable of generating electricity at low cost in lower wind speed areas, WTC’s unique wind turbine will help harness California’s untapped wind potential

28. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Xonon Cool Combustion System - Catalytica Energy Systems, Inc. Description:  Gas turbine combustion system that controls combustion temperature to prevent the formation of NO X. Benefits:  Lower NO X emissions without SCR;  Can retrofit existing turbines;  Allows deployment of smaller turbines for DG; and  Expandable to large, central station turbines.

29. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Reduced-Temperature SOFC - Lawrence Livermore National Lab Description:  High efficiency, planar Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) with reduced operating temperature. Benefits:  Reduction in SOFC manufacturing costs;  A DG technology that can be sited in buildings in urban areas; and  Electricity generation with water & carbon dioxide as the only emissions.

30. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Nuclear Should Remain an Option, BUT  Cost  Waste Disposal  Health and safety  Proliferation

31. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Sequestration: <  Indirect w Enhancing CO 2 uptake through better agriculture/forestry practices Problem: cost, standard practice w Enhancing CO 2 uptake through ocean fertilization Problem: Law of sea, cost  Direct w Capture, separation, compression, and transport of CO 2 to: geologic storage ocean injection Problem: cost, public concern, environmental impacts CO 2 (atm) CO 2 produced

32. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Air Nitrogen Fuel Gas Generator Oxygen Excess Water Gas or Oil Coal or Biomass Crude Fuel Recycle Water Air Separation Plant Fuel Processing Plant Carbon Dioxide Recovery Multi-stage Turbine Electrical Generator Carbon dioxide sequestration CO 2 HP IPLP Heat exchanger Steam/CO 2 (~90/10% vol.) (CH 4, CO, H 2, etc.) CES Zero-Emission Power Generation System Con- den- ser

33. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Energy Choices vs Climate Must Also Incorporate Other Initiatives  Deregulation - our current experiment  Critical infrastructure protection - a looming issue  Transportation - 60% of California emissions

34. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION 1990-1999 Relative Gross Greenhouse Gas Emissions

35. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Our Principal Reservoir - The Sierra Snow Pack - Is Shrinking Sacramento River Runoff (1906-2001) April to July as a Percent of Total Runoff Source: California Protection Agency, Environmental Protection Indicators for California, 2001 Warmer Winters Have:  Reduced snow pack  Earlier snow melt  Decreased Spring runoff by 10%  Major effects on water supply, Cal Fed and Delta

36. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Sea Level Is Rising Along California’s Coast San Francisco Yearly Mean Sea Level (1855-2000) Source: California Protection Agency, Environmental Protection Indicators for California, 2001  CA has already seen a 7” rise in 150 years  IPCC projects 4” to 35” sea level rise by 2100  Concerns over levee stability and salt water intrusion

37. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Potential Impacts of Climate Change on California: Agriculture  Currently first in the nation w major user of water (43%) and energy (2nd largest user)  This sector may be severely affected by climate change but more studies are needed w water availability w exotic species

38. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Potential Impacts of Climate Change on California w Increased cooling degree days are already affecting electricity demand. w Increased temperatures could increase energy expenditures significantly. w Exacerbated by population growth, demographic shifts.

39. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION California Energy Perspective  Previous system wasn’t broken  Market power became concentrated w profits up by selling less for more  No price signal for end users  Loss of momentum on demand side management w 10 GWh saved by early 1990’s w Restructuring derails utility DSM  1.4 GW of renewable cancelled w “No need” w Price was above cost to utilities  Results w Demand up 0.7%, price up 130% w Blackouts with 28 GW load with ~ 50 GW capacity

40. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ISO Daily Peak Loads January 2000 - August 31, 2001 Summer Peak is 50% higher than rest of year Yet blackouts occurred here

41. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION California Electricity Problems: Non-causes  “Soaring electricity demand” w 1990-1999 only 1.1% per year  “Huge electricity demand from Internet” w Claimed 8-13% of electricity demand w Actual 2-3% and growing slowly  “Environmental regulations prevented power plants” w Uncertainty, restructuring and standed costs chilled construction  “California built no power plants in 1990’s” w Added 4010 MW, most small scale  “Fuel shortage”

42. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION What Changed by Summer & Fall 2001?  CA peak demand > 40,000 MW on only 9 days  FERC ordered generators to offer power  FERC threatened scrutiny of outages  Conservation of ~8% from publicity campaign and higher prices  Capacity additions 1/1/01 - 8/1/01 8/2/01 - 8/1/02 CA & N. Baja 3,192 MW7,652 MW NW, Alberta, BC 2,104 MW4,038 MW SW 2,331 MW3,212 MW 7,627 MW 14,902 MW

43. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION California Peak Demand

44. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Monthly Peak Demand Reduction 2001 -2002 compared to 2000, adjusted for growth and weather

45. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Summer 2001 Peak Demand Reductions versus Summer 2000

46. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Top 10 California Household Conservation Actions

47. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION California Energy Issues Interdependencies  Relationship of natural gas to electricity use w storage down 87% from 11/99 to 11/00 w generators pass through spot gas prices w $3 to $69 MBtu from 12/12/99 to 12/12/00  1-in-75 year drought will cause increased gas demand w 600 Bcf in west, 225 Bcf in So Cal  SONGS outages reduced 1100 MW of generating capacity w increase gas demand by 200 Mcfd  First cold winter in US in three years w price up all over, higher in California

48. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Transmission Issues Will Increase in the Future  Lack of recent investment due to IOU financial problems and ownership uncertainty  Increasing amount of long-distance power transactions w Today, more than half of all electricity is traded in wholesale markets before delivery to end-users  $2-$12 billion required for WSCC transmission system upgrade until 2010

49. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Transportation Systems Produce One-Third of national CO 2 Emissions  California’s tailpipe law: TBL  The new market power: ethanol  Potential for hybrid and fuel cell advances

50. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION New Automobile Fleet Characteristics and CO 2 Emissions In Europe Average CO 2 emissions for new vehicles decreased significantly in Europe despite increases in vehicle mass, power, and engine capacity Source: European Automobile Manufacturers Association and the Commission Services, “Monitoring of ACEA’s Commitment on CO2 Emission Reduction from Passenger Cars,” June 2002

51. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION California has Established a $62M/yr Public Interest Energy Research Program (PIER) California’s Energy Future Economy: Affordable Solutions Quality: Reliable and Available Environment: Protect and Enhance

52. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Act Globally, Think Locally  Be cognizant of local culture and values  Don’t “parachute” technologies into developing countries  Benefits must be obvious to community w industrial acceptance w ease of use  Requires a portfolio approach