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0 28 January 2010
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The SKF Group Year-end results 2009 Tom Johnstone, President and CEO
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2 28 January 2010 Key points, full-year report Strong cash flow Q4: SEK 1,445 mFull year: SEK 5,752 m Dramatic volume drop year over year Improving trend sequentially during second half Q4: -14.1% Full year: -24.3% Positive price/mix Q4: 0.3%Full year: 4.3% Capacity adjustments and cost reduction efforts giving results - significant short-time working being utilized, December 13,000 people - reduction of 4,900 people since Q3 2008 (whereof 3,800 in 2009) - annualised savings from all programmes, around SEK 1,050 million Demand outlook for Q1 - year over year:slightly higher - sequentially:slightly higher
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3 28 January 2010 New businesses, some examples A Memorandum of Understanding for strategic partnership signed with Sinovel Wind Co. Ltd. A five year condition based maintenance contract with Total E&P UK for providing condition based maintenance services. A service contract with Transocean that covers asset reliability services for 59 of Transocean's drilling rigs. A long-term contract for the supply of bearings to Hero Honda of India. An order for axleboxes and drive system bearings to CSR Zhuzhou Electric Locomotive Co., Ltd. ZELC.
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4 28 January 2010 Investing in knowledge 2009 Agreement with Ricardo to develop energy-efficient solutions. Contract signed with Cambridge University to set up a SKF University Technology Centre (UTC) on steels and also with Imperial College London to set up a SKF UTC on tribology. Seven new SKF Solution Factories opened around the world. A SKF Global Testing Centre inaugurated in Bengaluru, India. Expanded range of sealed spherical roller bearings. More than 20 new market offers.
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5 28 January 2010 Sales volume % change y-o-y 2007 2008 2009
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6 28 January 2010 Sales in local currencies (excl. structural changes) % change y-o-y 2007 2008 2009
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7 28 January 2010 Growth in local currency (Organic growth + acquisition/divestments) % y-o-y Acquisitions/Divestments Organic growth 13.2% Long-term target level: 6-8% per annum 7.1% -19.0%
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8 28 January 2010 Western Europe -26% Asia/Pacific -6% Latin America -2% Eastern Europe -20% Middle East & Africa +3% North America -18% Growth development by geography Local currency 2009 vs 2008
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9 28 January 2010 Components in net sales Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 7.96.99.06.34.96.22.7-13.0 -26.9-30.8-24.9-14.1 4.04.63.71.0 1.30.52.41.41.11.20.4 1.82.72.03.23.84.06.48.57.15.63.70.3 13.714.214.710.59.711.59.6-2.1-18.4-24.1-20.0-13.4 -5.6-2.3-1.9-2.0-1.2-4.1-0.910.313.612.26.6-1.4 8.111.912.88.5 7.48.78.2-4.8-11.9-13.4-14.8 Percent y-o-y Volume Structure Price / Mix Sales in local currency Currency Net sales 2007 2008 2009
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10 28 January 2010 Operating profit SEKm 20072008 2009 Restructuring and one-time items
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11 28 January 2010 Operating margin % 2007 Long-term target level: 12% 2008 2009 Restructuring and one-time items
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12 28 January 2010 Operating margin % 12.9 12.2 Long-term target level: 12% 5.7 13.3* 12.7* 8.0* Restructuring and one-time items * Excluding restructuring and one-time items
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13 28 January 2010 Operating margin per division Industrial Service Automotive % 20072008 Excluding one-off items (eg. restructuring, impairments, capital gains) 2009
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14 28 January 2010 Activities to adapt to lower demand Cost and restructuring programmes People Costs charged to operating profit Q4 20082,500SEK 340 m Q1 2009 500SEK 175 m Q2 2009 900SEK 500 m Q3 200970SEK 200 m Q4 2009450SEK 400 m 4,420SEK 1,615 m December 2009, around 4,900 people had left the Group since the third quarter 2008, of which around 2,800 people under the programmes. When fully, implemented total savings from these activities will be around SEK 1,050 m. Around 13,000 people in short-time working December 2009.
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15 28 January 2010 SEKm 20092008 Net sales13,88716,307 Operating profit1,004*1,450 Operating margin, %7.2%8.9% Operating margin excl. restructuring, %10.1%11.0% Profit before taxes7651,107 Net profit505819 Basic earnings per share, SEK1.051.75 Cash flow after investments before financial items 1,445-150 Fourth quarter 2009 *Q4 restructuring around SEK 400 m Operating profit excl. restructuring activities SEK 1,404 m
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16 28 January 2010 SEKm 20092008 Net sales56,22763,361 Operating profit3,203*7,710 Operating margin, %5.7%12.2% Operating margin excl. restructuring, %8.0%12.7% Profit before taxes2,2976,868 Net profit1,7054,741 Basic earnings per share, SEK3.6110.14 Cash flow after investments before financial items 5,75265 Full year 2009 * 2009 restructuring around SEK 1,275 m Operating profit excl. restructuring activities SEK 4,478 m
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17 28 January 2010 Inventories as % of annual sales % 2007 Long-term target level: 18% 2008 2009
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18 28 January 2010 Cash flow, after investments before financial items 2007 SEKm Cash out from acquisitions* (SEKm) : 20071,209 2008 1,284 2009241 2008 2009 * including non-controlling interests.
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19 28 January 2010 Return on capital employed ROCE: Operating profit plus interest income, as a percentage of twelve months average of total assets less the average of non- interest bearing liabilities. % Long-term target level: 24% 24.9 24.0 9.1
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20 28 January 2010 Net debt (Short-term financial assets minus loans and post-employment benefits) SEKm AB SKF, dividend paid (SEKm) : 2007 Q2 2,049 2008 Q22,277 2009 Q21,594 Redemption (SEKm) : 2007 Q2 4,554 2008 Q22,277 20072008 2009
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21 28 January 2010 Debt structure Amount in millionMaturity Euro BondEUR 1322010-06 SEK BondSEK 556 *) 2011-06 Term loan in euro EUR 1502013-06 Euro BondEUR 400 **) 2013-12 Euro loansEUR 1302014-03 Euro loan EUR 1002016-06 After early repurchase in Q4 2009 of: *) SEK 944 million **) EUR 100 million
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22 28 January 2010 Key focus areas ahead 2009 Profit and cash flow - maintain positive price/mix - drive operational efficiency and cost reduction - reduce working capital and investments Adjustment of manufacturing output to new demand levels - restructuring - short-time working Growing segments and geographies Strengthening the platform/segment approach Competence development SKF Care and Six Sigma as guiding lights
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23 28 January 2010 Key focus areas ahead 2009 Profit and cash flow - maintain positive price/mix - drive operational efficiency and cost reduction - reduce working capital and investments Adjustment of manufacturing output to new demand levels - restructuring - short-time working Growing segments and geographies Strengthening the platform/segment approach Competence development SKF Care and Six Sigma as guiding lights.
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24 28 January 2010 SKF capital structure a dividend of SEK 3.50 per share a mandate to the Board to repurchase a maximum of 5% of the company's own shares The AB SKF Board proposes the Annual General Meeting to decide on:
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25 28 January 2010 Volume trends (based on current assumptions) Daily volume trends for: Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Net sales 2009 Europe51% North America17% Asia Pacific23% Latin America6% Total Outlook Q1 2010 vs 2009 - - +++ +
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26 28 January 2010 7% 14% 11% 7% 5% 22% 16% 12% 3% Aerospace Cars Industrial OEM, Heavy+Off-highway Energy Railway Industrial distribution Industrial OEM, General+Special Vehicle Service Market Trucks Electrical and two-wheeler Sequential volume trend main segments Q1 2010 (based on current assumptions) Net sales 2009
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27 28 January 2010 Volume trends, Divisions (based on current assumptions) Daily volume trends for Q1 2010 Net sales 2009 Industrial34% Service35% Automotive29% Total Outlook Q1 2010 vs 2009 --- + +++ +
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28 28 January 2010 December 2009: Outlook for the first quarter 2010 Sales development compared to first quarter last year The demand for SKF products and services is expected to be slightly higher for the Group in total. In Europe and North America it is expected to be slightly lower and in Asia and Latin America significantly higher. It is expected to be significantly lower for the Industrial Division, slightly higher for the Service Division and significantly higher for the Automotive Division. Sales development compared to the fourth quarter 2009 The demand is expected to be slightly higher for the SKF Group in total. It is expected to be slightly higher in Europe, Asia and Latin America and relatively unchanged in North America. For the Industrial Division it is expected to be relatively unchanged, and slightly higher for both the Service Division and Automotive Division. Manufacturing level The manufacturing level will be higher year on year and slightly higher compared to the fourth quarter 2009.
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29 28 January 2010 Guidance for the first quarter 2010 Tax level: around 30% Financial net for the first quarter: Around SEK -175 million Exchange rates on operating profit versus 2009 Q1: SEK -175 million Full year: SEK -400 million Additions to PPE: Around SEK 1.5 billion for 2010 Guidance is approximate and based on current assumptions and exchange rates.
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30 28 January 2010 Key focus areas ahead 2010 Profit and cash flow Adjustment of manufacturing output to new demand levels Growing segments and geographies Strengthening the platform/segment approach Competence development SKF Care and Six Sigma as guiding lights
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31 28 January 2010 SKF Care Employee Care Community Care Environmental Care Business Care BeyondZero TM SKF Care Operating margin
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32 28 January 2010 SKF Group Vision To equip the world with SKF knowledge
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33 28 January 2010 Cautionary statement This presentation contains forward-looking statements that are based on the current expectations of the management of SKF. Although management believes that the expectations reflected in such forward- looking statements are reasonable, no assurance can be given that such expectations will prove to have been correct. Accordingly, results could differ materially from those implied in the forward-looking statements as a result of, among other factors, changes in economic, market and competitive conditions, changes in the regulatory environment and other government actions, fluctuations in exchange rates and other factors mentioned in SKF's latest annual report (available on www.skf.com) under the Administration Report; “Important factors influencing the financial results", "Financial risks" and "Sensitivity analysis”.
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34 28 January 2010
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