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Kevin M. Wilson, ChFC, PhD President/CEO/CIO Dheenu Sivalingam, MBA AVP/CCO/Senior Analyst 1314 E. Superior Street Suite 2 Duluth, MN 55805 Office: 218-464-4399.

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Presentation on theme: "Kevin M. Wilson, ChFC, PhD President/CEO/CIO Dheenu Sivalingam, MBA AVP/CCO/Senior Analyst 1314 E. Superior Street Suite 2 Duluth, MN 55805 Office: 218-464-4399."— Presentation transcript:

1 Kevin M. Wilson, ChFC, PhD President/CEO/CIO Dheenu Sivalingam, MBA AVP/CCO/Senior Analyst 1314 E. Superior Street Suite 2 Duluth, MN 55805 Office: 218-464-4399 Toll Free: 877-327-5062 Fax: 218-464-4397 Email: info@bluewater-cap.com www.bluewatercapitaladvisors.com Monthly Market Review “How To Swim With The Sharks” April 19, 2012 Ted A. Pavlovich, WMS VP Wealth Management 11

2 INTRODUCTION TED A. PAVLOVICH 2

3 BLUE WATER’S MOVE TO 1405 MEDICAL ARTS BUILDING, 324 W. SUPERIOR ST., DULUTH MN 55802 IN MAY, 2012 KEVIN M. WILSON 3

4 Blue Water’s New Home 4

5 BRIEF MONTHLY SITUATION REPORT TED A. PAVLOVICH 5

6 Perspective: Market Cycles Within The LT Bear Market 13 years 6

7 7 Relative Valuations & Market History Serve As Guides When Assessing Risk

8 8 Three-Year Rally Is Capable Of Continuing

9 9 S & P 500 Moving Average Indicates Short Term Trouble

10 OUR STOCK PICKING DISCIPLINE IN BRIEF DHEENU V. SIVALINGAM 10

11 The Seven Immutable Laws of Investing  Always insist on a margin of safety  This time is never different  Be patient and wait for the fat pitch  Be contrarian (market consensus often wrong)  Risk is the permanent loss of capital, never a function of volatility  Be leery of leverage  Never invest in something you don’t understand 11

12 BWCA Stock Discipline Intrinsic Value: The actual value of a company or an asset based on an underlying perception of its true value including all aspects of the business, in terms of both tangible and intangible factors. This is generally how we pick stocks. 12

13 Risk/Reward Evaluation is critical determinant of long-term returns 13

14 HOW TO SWIM WITH THE SHARKS KEVIN M. WILSON 14

15 This Is Either A Dolphin Singing Or The Dow (Investors Need To Limit The Impact Of Volatility) 15

16 16 Longer Holding Periods May Help Combat Volatility, But There Are Also Dangerous Secular Bear Markets

17 17 Dividends Reduce Risk Over Time

18 18 P/E Valuations Predict Returns

19 19 Over-Bought + Over-Bullish Syndrome Precedes Losses Blue = Syndrome Drawdown S & P 500

20 20 A Market Controlled By Money Printing LTRO

21 21 “Helicopter Ben” Approach Will Continue, But Is Ineffective

22 SUMMARY & CONCLUSIONS 22 KEVIN M. WILSON -Market Sharks (Traders, Speculators) In Control Courtesy of the Fed & ECB -European Crisis, Economic Data, & Earnings May Cause Big Doubts By Summer -We like High Quality, Dividends, And Value Stocks As Foils To Market Volatility -If Market Sells Off, Risk/Reward Will Be VG & Huge Opportunity Awaits

23 This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any security or commodity and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change at any time without notice. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, for its accuracy and interpretation are not guaranteed. Investing in securities involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance should not be taken as an indication of guarantee of future performance and no representation, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. The firm does not provide tax advice; clients should contact their attorney, accountant, or other tax adviser regarding tax matters. Blue Water Capital Advisors, LLC is an SEC registered investment advisor. Not FDIC insured. No bank guarantee. May lose value. Not a deposit. Not insured by any federal government agency. Blue Water Capital Advisors, LLC is not affiliated with National Bank of Commerce or NATCOM Bancshares, Inc. Disclaimer 23


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