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Progress of CTB Transition Project Team for Land Data Assimilation: Impact on CFS of: A) new land model (Noah LSM) B) new land initial conditions (from.

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Presentation on theme: "Progress of CTB Transition Project Team for Land Data Assimilation: Impact on CFS of: A) new land model (Noah LSM) B) new land initial conditions (from."— Presentation transcript:

1 Progress of CTB Transition Project Team for Land Data Assimilation: Impact on CFS of: A) new land model (Noah LSM) B) new land initial conditions (from 27-year T126 GLDAS/Noah) 10-year 10-member 6-month T126 CFS runs (GFS-OP3T3,MOM-3) –Four configurations of T126 CFS: A) CFS/OSU/GR2: - OSU LSM, initial land states from GR2 (CONTROL) B) CFS/Noah/GR2: - Noah LSM, initial land states from GR2 C) CFS/Noah/GLDAS: - Noah LSM, initial land states from T126 GLDAS/Noah D) CFS/Noah/GLDAS-Climo: - Noah LSM, initial land states from GLDAS/Noah climo –10 summers:(88, 90, 91, 93, 99, 00, 01, 02, 03, 04) Initial conditions: 00Z daily from Apr 19-23, Apr 29-30, May 1-3 –10 winters:(83, 88, 89, 90, 98, 00, 01, 02, 03, 04) Initial conditions: 00Z daily from Nov 29-30, Dec 1-3, Dec 19-23 For summers 1999 & 2000 only Ensemble size test (Case B only, 5 added members from April 9-13 I.C.s for total of 15) Lead time test (Cases B & C, 10 added members run from May 30-31, Jun1-3, Jun 19-23 I.C.s) –Also for test of CFS version (in FY06 CTB, we tested current ops CFS with Noah at T126) For summer 2003 only (to compare with Augustin’s CTB CFS tests) 7 members, 2-month fcsts (same July initial dates as Augustin, for Aug fcst) 10-year 10-member runs just finished on CTB/HAZE on April 8 –Only time thus far for evaluation of 1999 summer ensemble over U.S. for precip –Results of above pilot evaluation of CFS experiments shown in next frame –Plus 3 additional frames comparing GLDAS/Noah and GR2/OSU soil moisture

2 CFS Test A: Control T126 CFS / OSU / GR2 CFS Test C: T126 CFS / Noah / GLDAS Impact of Upgrading Land Surface Model and Land Surface Initial Conditions in Seasonal 3-Month Forecasts of the Experimental NCEP Climate Forecast System With respect to 10-year climate of given CFS model from 10-member ensemble of CFS forecasts from April initial conditions July 99 Observed Anomaly Black Circles: Worse than Case CWhite Circles: Best or decent CFS Test B: T126 CFS / Noah / GR2 CFS Test A: Control - old OSU LSM - GR2 initial land states CFS Test B: - new Noah LSM - GR2 initial land states CFS Test C: - new Noah LSM GLDAS initial land states CFS Test D: New Noah LSM GLDAS climo initial land states CFS Test D: T126 CFS / Noah /GLDAS-climo CFS Predicted July 1999 Precipitation Anomaly (mm) Most successful configuration

3 GLDAS/Noah (top) versus GR2/OSU (bottom) 2-meter soil moisture (% volumetric) May 1 st Climatology 01 May 1999 Anomaly Left column: GLDAS/Noah soil moisture climo is generally higher then GR2/OSU Middle column: GLDAS/Noah soil moisture anomaly pattern agrees better than that of GR2/OSU with observed precipitation anomaly (right column: top) Top: observed 90-day Precipitation Anomaly (mm) valid 30 April 99 Bottom: Climatology

4 GLDAS/Noah (top) versus GR2/OSU (bottom) 2-meter soil moisture (% volumetric) May 1 st Climatology 01 May 1999 Anomaly

5 Monthly Time Series (1985-2004) of Area-mean Illinois 2-meter Soil Moisture [mm]: Observations (black), GLDAS/Noah (purple), GR2/OSU (green) Total Anomaly Climatology The climatology of GLDAS/Noah soil moisture is higher and closer to the observed climatology than that of GR2/OSU, while the anomlies of all three show generally better agreement (though some exceptions)

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