1. Kim Kelly – NWRO GIS Specialist Gene Lonning – NWRO Fuels Specialist March 2009 Northwest Regional Office Risk Assessment

2. National Risk Assessment Low Resolution – Budget Decisions Examples: EMDS and BIA National RA National Risk Assessment Regional Risk Assessment Local Risk Assessment Risk Assessments Scale & Purpose Regional Risk Assessment Moderate Resolution - Budget Decisions Examples: Florida State RA, NWRO Regional RA Local Reservation Risk Assessment High Resolution - Project Level Fuels Planning Examples: Spokane, CSKT, Warm Springs, CDA

3. Risk Assessment Inputs Risk Probability ValueHazard Ecosystem Performance

4. Risk Elements and Datasets

5. Flame Length Rate of Spread Crown Fire Activity Fire Behavior/ Hazard Fire HazardValues at Risk Fire ProbabilityPerformance Silvis WUI Timber Value Values at Risk All Fire Starts Large Fires > 100ac PS Dryness Level Fire Probability Fire Regime Groups FRCC Performance

6. Risk Elements & Classification

7. Fire Behavior Analysis Fire Hazard Fire Behavior Analysis  Landfire Data Not Calibrated  Composite Output Crown Fire, Surface Fire, Flame Length  Extreme Fire Conditions 20ft winds @ 25 mph  Fuel Moisture File 1hr, 10hr, 100hr, LH, LW  1 3 3 7 15 60  2 3 3 7 15 60  4 3 3 7 15 60  5 3 3 7 15 60  6 3 3 7 15 60  7 3 3 7 15 60  8 5 5 6 30 60  9 4 4 5 30 60  10 5 5 6 30 60  11 4 4 5 30 60  12 4 4 5 30 60 Fire Behavior Acres

8. Fire Hazard Map

9. Fire Probability

10. Fire Probability Map Fire Occurrence

11. Fire Probability Map Large Fire + Predictive Services Dryness Levels

12. Values at Risk – Forest Timber Types Forest Timber Type Map Forest Timber Types

13. Values at Risk – Silvis WUI Silvis WUI MapSilvis WUI Acres Agency/ReservationAcres Siletz - Grand Ronde, Coquille, Siletz1489 Olympic Peninsula/ Puget Sound / Metlakatla57465 Siletz - Cow Creek75 QIN35576 Ft. Hall227374 Nez Perce630528 Umatilla131834 Coeur d'Alene198596 Warm Springs110521 Yakama584953 Spokane97322 CKST731474 Colville287486

14. Ecosystem Performance Map Fire Regime Groups

15. Ecosystem Performance Map FRCC

16. Overall Risk Map

17. Overall Risk Acres by Reservation

18. NWR Pre-Assessment Ranking