1. 1 The Twin Challenges of Climate Change: Energy Security The Greatest Threats to Mankind? What we can do about it: Hard Choices Ahead Great Weston Fayre - 12 th July 2009 N.K. Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) M.A, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук Energy Science Director CRed Project HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal 5 th October 2007 CRed Carbon Reduction

2. The Twin Challenges of Climate Change: Energy Security The Background –Is Climate Change Man Made? –Energy Security issues The UK scene – the challenges facing us –The Hard Choices – there is no easy answer A Way Forward –The prospects for renewables/conservation –Involving the Community through Awareness Raising Community Projects What about China? 2 The Greatest Threats to Mankind? What we can do about it: Hard Choices Ahead

3. 33 Changes in Temperature and Carbon Dioxide

4. 4 Increasing Occurrence of Drought

5. 5 Increasing Occurrence of Flood

6. 6 Is Global Warming Man Made? Not according to Channel 4: “ The Great Global Warming Swindle”! Conveniently omits recent data post 1980 and 10 hottest years

7. 7 Last Ice Age Humans are ‘forcing’ the system in a new way. CO 2 increases are mainly due to fossil fuel burning. CO 2 has not been this high in more than half a million years. Last Interglacial Ice ages are not random. They are 'forced' (by earth’s orbital clock…. changes in the sunlight received). 350 300 250 200 Carbon Dioxide (ppmv) 6005004003002001000 Thousands of Years Before Present [Adapted from Figure 6.3, ©IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4] 1800 today 7 Long Term Carbon Dioxide Record

8. 8 Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) actual predicted Is Global Warming man made? Prediction: Anthropogenic only Not a good match between 1920 and 1970 Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates and ozone Solar and volcanic activity 8

9. 9 Is Global Warming man made? Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office Prediction: Natural only good match until 1960 Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates and ozone Solar and volcanic activity 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) actual predicted 9

10. 10 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) actual predicted Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic Generally a good match Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates and ozone Solar and volcanic activity Is Global Warming man made? 10

11. 11 (Source: Prof. Bill McGuire, University College London) Norwich Consequence of ~ 1m rise Consequence of ~ 6m rise Norwich City would be playing water polo!

12. 12 1979 2003 Climate Change: Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003 Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region NASA satellite imagery الصيف الجليد في القطب الشمالي تغطية المنطقة القطبيه ناسا الصور الفضاءيه Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.htmlhttp://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html 20% reduction in 24 years 20 ٪ تخفيض في 24 سنوات تغير المناخ اثار على الجليديه القطبيه كاب 1979 - 2003 12

13. Comparison of Discoveries and Demand We need to consider alternatives now 13

14. 14 UK Gas Production and Demand Import Gap

15. 15 Per capita Carbon Emissions Japan UK What is the magnitude of the CO 2 problem?

16. 16

17. r 17 Electricity Generation i n selected Countries

18. 18 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Gas CCGT 0 - 80% (curently 35%) Available now (but is now running out) ~2p + but recent trends put figure much higher UK becomes net importer of gas in 2004 Langeland and Balzand Pipe Lines completed Price projected by Government for Gas generation in 2020 18

19. 19 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2018. Gas CCGT 0 - 80% (curently 35%) Available now (but is now running out) ~2p + but recent trends put figure much higher Carbon sequestration either by burying it or use methanolisation as a new transport fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s 19

20. 20 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

21. 21 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Scroby Sands had a Load factor of 25.8% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 60% needs of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich

22. 22 Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill, Norfolk. Rated capacity 5.5 kW Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

23. 23 Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 400 sq km - But energy needed to make PV takes up to 10 years to pay back in UK. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

24. 24 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 300 sq km But energy needed to make PV takes up to 8 years to pay back in UK.

25. 25 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generatejust over 5% of UK electricity needs. Transport Fuels: Biodiesel? Bioethanol? Compressed gas from methane from waste.

26. 26 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

27. 27 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

28. 28 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Output 78 000 GWh per annum - Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney but there are only 4000 in Orkney. Controversy in bringing cables south Save 40000 tonnes of CO 2

29. 29 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

30. 30 Opted Out Coal: Stations can only run for 20 000 hours more and must close by 2015 New Nuclear assumes completing 1 new nuclear station each year beyond 2018 New Coal assumes completing 1 new coal station each year beyond 2018 Our Choices: They are difficult: Energy Security There is a looming capacity shortfall Even with a full deployment of renewables. A 10% reduction in demand per house will see a rise of 7% in total demand - Increased population decreased household size

31. 31 Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is NO Do we want to return to using coal? then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly unless we can develop carbon sequestration and apply it to ALL our power stations NOW - Apart from small schemes it is not available at present. Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years. If our answer is NO Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks? If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

32. 32 Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is YES By 2020 we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> If not: We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming by using coal? -the North Norfolk Coal Field? Aylsham Colliery, North Walsham Pit? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

33. 33 Normal hot water circuit Solar Circuit Solar Pump Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions Solar Thermal Energy

34. 34 Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004 Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions Solar Thermal Energy

35. 35 Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions Solar Thermal Energy 2007 2008

36. 36 Our Choices: They are difficult Latest some evidence to suggest that a few birds are killed typically 3 per installed MW per year except in a few locations. the oldest wind farm in UK on Burgar Hill has an RSPB reserve right next to it. in Orkney a party from UEA came across new fewer than 3 dead birds on roads in 2 days in area around turbines. Currently UK has around 3350 MW installed perhaps 10000 killed a year Estimates of 1 million killed each year by vehicles British Trust for Ornithology estimate 100 million birds collide with fixed objects of whom one third are killed Wind Energy: The Issues Wind Turbines kill birds

37. 37 Whilst the wind turbine is considered 'ugly' by some residents of Swaffham, most consider it a unique landmark and see it as an asset to the town. Most of the local population are proud of the turbine and it seems to have had a positive impact on the town in a number of ways. I do believe that were it not for the number of visitors to Swaffham, coming to see the turbine for whatever reason, we would not have such a high influx of buyers from out of the area. This has increased house prices, and the prosperity of the area. Our Choices: They are difficult Affect House Prices Evidence from Estate Agents in the Swaffham Area say they have a positive effect on house prices.

38. Wind Energy Performance in East Anglia 38 Load Factor Data for Wind Turbines in East Anglia Dec 2006 – Nov 2007 Data on Monthly Basis Data on Annual Basis

39. 39 Wind Turbines: Some Myths Wind Turbines are Incredibly Inefficient Efficiency: the ratio of the USEFUL work to the total energy available (or expended) Oxford English Dictionary Modern Wind Turbines convert 40 – 42% of available energy in the wind Modern Coal Fired Power Stations achieve 38% Sizewell B achieves 32% A car engine achieve 20 - 25% at best Compared to many other energy devices, Wind Turbines are Very Efficient

40. 40 T during this Capacity Factor issue Wind Turbines have a Capacity Factor losranging from 22% to 35%+. Average has been around 27%. Sizewell B is off line for up to 50 days at a time –equivalent output of 700 + turbines is lost during this period. A car driven 10000 miles has a capacity factor of 5% Wind Turbines: Some Myths

41. 41 Our Choices: They are difficult Wind Turbines are beautiful! » Wind Turbines are Ugly! What is the consequence of not using wind alongside conservation, biomass etc?. Insecure supply of Electricity when we import fossil fuels from Russia The North Norfolk Coal Field 20 new nuclear power stations in the UK by 2025 Increased incidence of extreme weather events. What happens when wind does not blow? What happens when SIZEWELL or another coal fired power station trips – Effect is much more serious

42. 42 How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO 2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. Around 4 million over Norfolk. In the developing world, the average is under 1 balloon per person Is this Fair? On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO 2 each year. "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

43. 43 Raising Awareness A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m. 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon. Standby on electrical appliances up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year) A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year ~ 500 balloons each year. Filling up with petrol (~£38 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour? 1.6 miles At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai 上海徐汇区高第一小学 A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO 2. School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya

44. 44 The Behavioural Dimension Social Attitudes towards energy consumption have a profound effect on actual consumption Data collected from 114 houses in Norwich For a given size of household electricity consumption for appliances [NOT HEATING or HOT WATER] can vary by as much as 9 times. When income levels are accounted for, variation is still 6 times

45. 45 Many residents on island of Burray (Orkney) compaigned for a wind turbine. On average they are fully self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity Involve the local Community Waste cooking oil from other islands is processed into biodiesel for farm and other vehicles. Ethanol used in process is obtained from fermentation of harvested sea weed Island of Westray

46. 46 6 kW Proven Turbine powering a Heat Pump providing heating for Parish Kirk, Westray Horizontal Axis Mini Wind

47. 47 Micro CHP Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical Solutions Micro CHP plant for homes are being trialled. Replaces the normal boiler But there is a problem in summer as there is limited demand for heat – electrical generation will be limited. Backup generation is still needed in summer unless integrated with solar photovoltaic?

48. 48 Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions: The Heat Pump Any low grade source of heat may be used Coils buried in garden 1 – 1.5 m deep Bore holes Lakes/Rivers are ideal Air can be used but is not as good Best performance if the temperature source between outside source and inside sink is as small as possible. Heat pump delivers 3, 4, or even 5 times as much heat as electricity put in.

49. 49 The Carbon Debt to China Production of exports has caused emission of CO 2 in China to increase by 796 Mtonnes between 2002 and 2005. [ 478 Mtonnes to Developed Countries] Each person in developed world is responsible to China for the emission of an EXTRA 463kg in just 3 years. Increases in CO 2 in China 2002 - 2005 Other

50. 50 Conclusions Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades Energy Security will become increasingly important. Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity more likely in future. Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of energy. It is as much about the individual’s response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take. Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real alternatives for significant renewable generation in next 5 – 10 years. Otherwise Nuclear??? Or insecure supplies from Russia Even if we are not convinced about Global Warming – Energy Security issues will shortly start to affect us.

51. A Pathway to a Low Carbon Future 未来的低碳之路 1. 不要浪费能源 Awareness 3. 使用可再生能源 Renewable Energy 4. 抵消碳排放 Offsetting 2. 使用效率高的设备 Technical Solutions

52. 52 WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org This presentation will be on WEB from this evening >follow Academic Resources Link Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person ’ s room And Finally Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher 老子 （ 604-531BC ）中国古代思想家、哲学家 “If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading.” （直译）： “ 如果你不改变，你将止步于原 地。 ”

53. 53 How many Blades? See http://www.windpower.org/en/tour/design/concepts.htm for advantages / disadvantages of different number of bladeshttp://www.windpower.org/en/tour/design/concepts.htm ThreeTwo one