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Almond Presentation January 2013 Presented by - Bill Morecraft General Manager Blue Diamond Almonds Global Ingredients Division
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Almond Overview Growth Drivers and Historical Context Current Year Overview Looking Ahead
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The Global Middle Class
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The Global Middle Class is Evolving The middle class is not easily defined “Purchasing Power Parity” (PPP) Developing Economies = US $10,000 Established Economies = US $45,000 - $75,000 We have seen very diverse results in middle class growth when looking at developing economies versus economies with an established middle class Two trends haven driven almond industry growth in recent years Growing Middle Class Growth in Healthy Eating Habits Source: Euromonitor, “The Global Middle Class Sees Mixed Fortunes, October - 2012
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Rapidly Growing Middle Class in World’s Two Largest Countries Number of Households (millions) 2011 2006
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Almond Shipments to China Have Grown Nearly 1000% Millions Pounds
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Almond Shipments to India Have Grown 145% Millions Pounds
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2006 v 2011 Percent of Households With PPP of US $45,000 to US $75,000 2006 v 2011
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Evolving Eating Habits Busier Lifestyles Shorter lunch breaks / working during lunch Longer working hours Longer commutes Working Women More women in workforce and less time cooking Demand for convenience Healthy solutions Snacking Fills the Mealtime Gaps Convenience / portability Ability to eat on-the-go Increase in healthy offerings, e.g. 100 calorie pack Healthy Lifestyles Desire to combine health & convenience Lower sodium, less fat, natural ingredients, functional ingredients Helps fuel demand for Western products in emerging markets Source: Euromonitor, “Home Cooking & Eating Habits, A Global Analysis. April - 2012
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Almond Industry Shipments 5-year History Millions / lbs. 18% 10% 6% 13% 14% 78% Growth Between 2007-12
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Export Demand Comparisons Millions / lbs. Source: Almond Board of California Position Reports. Asia does not include Australia or New Zealand. Middle East does not include Africa. Europe is inclusive of Western & Eastern Europe.
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Demand Share Comparisons
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Current Crop Year Overview
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YTD December- Total Industry Shipments -.9% 155.8mm 255.2m 141.5m 267.7mm
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2012 California Almond Crop Pounds / Billions
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Short Term Outlook Growth in Shipments vs. 2012 Supply Increase
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Yield Trend
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Trended Crop Projections
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Key Factors for Future Global demand can continue to grow, driven by: Middle class growth in emerging economies Changing eating habits in mature economies Global almond production will grow slower in next 2-3 years, than in past decade Almond pricing will reflect supply tightness for the near future
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Questions?
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