1. Jordan W. Smith, Ph.D. Department of Forestry and Natural Resources Purdue University A DAPTIVE E NGAGEMENT IN F OREST P LANNING C ONTINGENT U PON H YPOTHETICAL C LIMATE C HANGE I MPACTS

2. Public Participation in Resource Management Under Climate Change Individuals anticipate future risks on the basis of available information and act accordingly depending upon their preferences A direct linkage between global climate change and local impacts GLOBAL Climate Change Local impacts severe enough to result in personal costs (i.e., decrement in the personal utility derived from affected local systems). SOURCE: National Research Council. (2010). Advancing the science of climate change.

3. Adaptive Participation in Forest Service Planning Are public participation rates likely to differ according to the predicted severity of impacts to local social and economic systems?

4. Waynesville, NC Franklin, NCSpruce Pine, NC 2010 population: 9,896 2010 population: 2,175 2010 population: 3,845

5. Several hypothetical, yet realistic, scenarios were presented to respondents via a mail-back questionnaire. For each hypothetical scenario, respondents were asked to make two decisions regarding whether or not they would become involved in forest planning Direct connection between global climate change and local impacts

6. Franklin Waynesville Spruce Pine

9. The experimental ‘treatment’ involves varying the level of impact to each system across each hypothetical scenario. 3 3 = 27 hypothetical treatment combinations Blocked Fully Factorial Design 1213456789

10. Sampling Waynesville, NC Franklin, NCSpruce Pine, NC 300 full-time property owners sampled in each community 420 returned questionnaires 48.8% response rate

11. Estimation Hierarchical Mixed Effects Logistic Regression Model Given our data were collected from three sample communities, there is the possibility for the presence of within-sample correlation and bias to exist in the data.

12. Impacts to all three attributes have significant effects on individuals’ behavioral intentions

16. Implications for Forest Managers In short, agencies are likely to face a double-bind of simultaneously developing plans and management actions to adapt to changing conditions that are characterized by increasing scientific uncertainty and facilitating the needs of a citizenry who will be coming increasingly concerned about how increasingly variable environments impact their economies, lifestyles, and environments. Known need for increased certainty about how an altered climate will change forest ecosystems Concomitant need for increased capacities to engage, educate, and develop the adaptive capacities of local communities

17. Jordan W. Smith, Ph.D. Department of Forestry and Natural Resources Purdue University S LIDES AND FULL - DRAFT AVAILABLE AT http://web.ics.purdue.edu/~smit1547/index.php