1. State of the WA Environment Climate Change Vulnerabilities & Impacts: The unavoidable need for managing change Dr Wally Cox Chairman Environmental Protection Authority

2. SoE Overview Report to community and decision makers (every 5 years) Major environmental issues and trends Raise awareness ID responses required Report out in late 2006 WA State of the Environment 2006 PressuresState Response SOER

3. Scope Fundamental Pressures: –CLIMATE CHANGE, population & consumption Major environmental themes: –Land, air, inland waters, marine, biodiversity, human settlements, heritage NRM Sectors: –Agriculture, mining, energy, water supply etc WA State of the Environment 2006 Climate change identified in every section

4. WA State of the Environment 2006 Aspects of climate change

5. WA’s position Primary focus greenhouse gas emissions mitigation Global emissions reduction beyond our control Change is inevitable WA must prepare to live with and adapt to climate change WA State of the Environment 2006

6. Vulnerabilities Key drivers temperature and rainfall Every living organism has a T & R range Implications for natural and economic systems in WA WA State of the Environment 2006

7. Key vulnerabilities - natural systems General: Climate change will exacerbate current threats to biodiversity, natural systems Individual species:Some threatened spp. even more vulnerable, Some too slow to adapt, move egStirling Range Moggridgea sp. spider V narrow range, highly vulnerable to fire, increased fire incidence will increase vulnerability Endangered mammal spp. In the SW eg Dibbler Exacerbation of existing threats – loss of habitat, increased fire threat Vegetation assemblagesImpacts on many vegetation types egDecline in Tuart, WandooAlready subject to a number of stresses Decline in Karri, Marri, Tingles Future risk from lower rainfall Ecosystems Coral reef bleachingIncrease in # high sea temperature events Loss of wetlandsLower rainfall, increased eutrophication Decline in riverine ecosystems Reduced streamflow, increased eutrophication

8. Key vulnerabilities - economic systems General: Most NRM sectors vulnerable to CC SectorVulnerabilityDrivers Water supply - SW Risks to quantity and quality of water supply Decreased rainfall, increased evaporation, corresponding non-linear decrease in runoff & g/water recharge AgricultureChanging productivity, impacts on farm profitability Increased temperatures, changes in evaporation, enhanced CO 2 concentrations, increased seasonal variability, changes in rainfall intensities PastoralismDecrease in viability of (southern) rangelands Rainfall decline in southern rangelands leading to reduced pasture growth and water availability ForestryChanging productivity, changes in sustainable yields from native forests Rainfall decline, increasing temperatures, exacerbation of pests and diseases

9. Gnangara Mound decline

10. Consequences Banksia littoralis Banksia prionotes Regelia ciliata Yanchep Caves Stygofauna and root matt communities

11. Median monthly flows for the Harris River, near Collie before and after 1976

12. Adaptation - Principles Prevent and/or modify threats Change uses / activities Change location of activities Expand research into impacts, technologies and methods of adaptation Educate, inform and encourage behavioural change WA State of the Environment 2006

13. Adaptation - capacity Some areas will be able to adapt: –Water sector –Coastal planning –Agriculture Some won’t –Vulnerable SW ecosystems –Wheatbelt spp. –Southern rangelands? –Coral reefs – Ningaloo, Dampier Archipelago WA State of the Environment 2006

14. Intervention? WA State of the Environment 2006 Natural adaptation Intervention: adaptive management Extreme / deliberate intervention - ‘Last line of defence’  Millenium Seed Bank Project, cryogenic chamber  Yanchep stygofauna Cost of intervention Technology requirements Timeframe Knowledge

15. Conclusion The “Greenhouse Bulldozer” is coming We have a moral obligation to reduce our GHG emissions We need to: –Enhance our understanding of the impacts for WA environment and sectors –Plan to adapt AND –Adapt WA State of the Environment 2006