1. CRAWFORD SCHOOL of Economics and Government Environmental values and valuation over time Gabriela Scheufele EERH Workshop 20 May 2008

2. CRAWFORD SCHOOL of Economics and Government Motivation  30 year history of non-market valuation: opportunity to analyse environmental values and valuation across time  Number of value estimation studies linking time and value is limited, mostly considering relatively short time periods (e.g., Brouwer 2006; Brouwer and Bateman 2005; Carson et al. 1997; Loomis 1989; McConnell et al. 1998; Reiling et al. 1990; Stevens et al. 1994; Teisl et al. 1995; Whitehead and Aiken 2007; Whitehead and Hoban 1999; Zandersen et al. 2005)  Policy making requires forecast of future preferences and extrapolation of value estimates over extended time periods (‘shelf live’?)  Benefit transfer – transfer across space and time  Changing reference dependency - influence of extreme events & long-term ‘threats’ (‘right’ point in time?)

3. CRAWFORD SCHOOL of Economics and Government Research questions  Do value (estimates) change over longer time periods?  What is the direction and extent of possible value (estimate) changes across time?  What are the drivers motivating possible value (estimate) volatility over time?

4. CRAWFORD SCHOOL of Economics and Government Drivers of temporal value volatility  Temporal unreliability of value estimates  Impact of methodological evolution (procedural changes) on value estimates across time (e.g., sampling methods, survey design, elicitation format, underlying economic models, econometric analysis & interpretation of results )  Temporal volatility of inherent values due to changes in environmental preferences and constraints (e.g., income; availability of close and cheap substitutes; relative scarcity; socio-demographics such as age, gender, cultural background; quantitative and qualitative characteristics; psychometric factors such as attitude-behaviour relations, decision making types, or unfamiliarity with natural resources)

5. CRAWFORD SCHOOL of Economics and Government Case study  Existence value of the Nadgee Nature Reserve  Nadgee Nature Reserve covers an area of 17,116 ha  Only coastal wilderness area in NSW  Pristine character Source: webpage Department of Environment and Climate Change, New South Wales Government  Existence value of the Nadgee Nature Reserve  Nadgee Nature Reserve covers an area of 17,116 ha  Only coastal wilderness area in NSW  Pristine character  Existence value of the Nadgee Nature Reserve  Nadgee Nature Reserve covers an area of 17,116 ha  Only coastal wilderness area in NSW  Pristine character Source: webpage Department of Environment and Climate Change, New South Wales Government Source: Department of Environment and Climate Change, New South Wales Government

6. CRAWFORD SCHOOL of Economics and Government Methods  Comparison of original CV 1978 with original replication in 2008/2009  Analysis of the evolution of conservation areas in Australia  Analysis of changes in conservation related policies in Australia  Analysis of other survey data (e.g., world value survey)  Analysis of links to social psychological models  Testing for temporal unreliability  Comparison of original CV 2008/2009 with CV exhibiting procedural changes (e.g., econometric analysis, elicitation format, incentive compatibility) and CM