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Predicting right whale distributions from space Andrew J. Pershing University of Maine/ Gulf of Maine Research Institute.

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Presentation on theme: "Predicting right whale distributions from space Andrew J. Pershing University of Maine/ Gulf of Maine Research Institute."— Presentation transcript:

1 Predicting right whale distributions from space Andrew J. Pershing University of Maine/ Gulf of Maine Research Institute

2 22 Collaborators –UMaine/GMRI: Nick Record, Dan Pendleton –Cornell: Bruce Monger, Linda Woodard, Chris Clark –PCCS: Stormy Mayo –Umass D: Changsheng Chen –NEFSC: Tim Cole Funding –NASA Applied Sciences –NSF Information Technology Research Program –NOAA Right Whale Grants Program Acknowledgments

3 33 Right whale facts 350-400 right whales Extinct in 200 years? Calving grounds off SE US Moms & babies migrate to feeding grounds in February All known feeding grounds are in the Gulf of Maine Calving Grounds (Nov-Jan) Feeding Grounds (Spring- Summer)

4 44 Right whale, wrong time? Threats to population –Ship strikes –Fishing gear

5 55 Threats to population –Ship strikes –Fishing gear Right whale, wrong time?

6 66 Threats to population –Ship strikes –Fishing gear All management options depend on knowing where whales are Right whale, wrong time?

7 77 Saving the Whales Food is very important, especially for females –Implication: identifying feeding areas should be a good way to locate whales –How can we find whale food on operational time scales? Courtesy PCCS

8 8 8 RWPS 1.0 SEASCAPE=Satellite-based Estimates and Analysis of Stage- resolved Copepod Abundance in Pelagic Ecosystems –Satellites can measure temperature and chlorophyll from space –Copepod growth and reproduction is related to temp & chl * = Chl SST nauplii C1-4 C5 Adult ~150m in GoM, 1000m Norwegian Sea

9 99 Predicting Whales from Calanus Date GSC Whale Sightings Year

10 10 Predicting Whales from Calanus Whale Arrival Date

11 11 Predicting Whales from Calanus Whale Arrival Date Whales arrive early when food is abundant Whale Arrival Date Calanus Abundance http://gmri.org/whalesgmri.org/whales

12 12 RWPS 1.0 Regional Scale: ~100 km, ~month physics: general circulation biology: copepod production management: habitat boundaries in space & time Habitat Scale: ~10 km, ~week physics: wind, fronts biology: whales follow copepods management: shipping lanes, sighting advisories Patch Scale: ~10 m, ~hr physics: boundary layers biology: copepod behavior management: gear interactions

13 13 RWPS 1.0 Regional Scale: ~100 km, ~month physics: general circulation biology: copepod production management: habitat boundaries in space & time Habitat Scale: ~10 km, ~week physics: wind, fronts biology: whales follow copepods management: shipping lanes, sighting advisories Patch Scale: ~10 m, ~hr physics: boundary layers biology: copepod behavior management: gear interactions CPR

14 14 RWPS 1.0 Regional Scale: ~100 km, ~month physics: general circulation biology: copepod production management: habitat boundaries in space & time Habitat Scale: ~10 km, ~week physics: wind, fronts biology: whales follow copepods management: shipping lanes, sighting advisories Patch Scale: ~10 m, ~hr physics: boundary layers biology: copepod behavior management: gear interactions CPR

15 15 RWPS 1.0 Regional Scale: ~100 km, ~month physics: general circulation biology: copepod production management: habitat boundaries in space & time Habitat Scale: ~10 km, ~week physics: wind, fronts biology: whales follow copepods management: shipping lanes, sighting advisories Patch Scale: ~10 m, ~hr physics: boundary layers biology: copepod behavior management: gear interactions MM5-FVCOM Circulation forecasts CPR

16 16 RWPS 1.0 Regional Scale: ~100 km, ~month physics: general circulation biology: copepod production management: habitat boundaries in space & time Habitat Scale: ~10 km, ~week physics: wind, fronts biology: whales follow copepods management: shipping lanes, sighting advisories Patch Scale: ~10 m, ~hr physics: boundary layers biology: copepod behavior management: gear interactions MM5-FVCOM Circulation forecasts CPR Photo courtesy of Cornell BRP Photo courtesy of NOAA

17 17 Right Whale Forecasts First generation forecast system provides useful info on Calanus and whales –Conditions in late-winter determine Calanus abundance in summer –Calanus abundance determines when whales arrive in GSC and how many stay Next generation forecasts will –extend to finer spatial and temporal scales using FVCOM –assimilate zooplankton observations in Cape Cod Bay –drive right whale distribution models Applications –aerial survey planning –shipping lane evaluation –characterize zooplankton resource in state waters

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