1. Adaptation Advisory Group Tuesday, November 16, 2010 City of Chicago Richard M. Daley, Mayor DRAFT

2. Adaptation Advisory Group Agenda Copyright 2010, City of Chicago I.Introductions Discuss Advisor roles and expectations II.Chicago climate impacts research and risk analysis Review Chicago climate impacts research and risk analysis III.Chicago Climate Action Plan adaptation Review approach and progress Discuss Chicago’s current and future adaptation responses IV.Advisor updates: adaptation successes Review New York City’s approach Review City of Toronto’s approach V.Next steps Discuss Advisor takeaways and next steps DRAFT

3. 2 Adaptation Advisory Group Scope Advisors will help establish CCAP adaptation implementation best practice: 1.Identify metrics to measure adaptation success 2.Evaluate existing adaptation responses 3.Prioritize future adaptation responses 4.Provide communications input 5.Identify existing resources and funding needs 6.Advise on gaps 7.Advisors assess & act on climate risk, creating template for scale out

4. 3 DRAFT Adaptation Advisory Group Agenda Copyright 2010, City of Chicago I.Introductions II.Chicago climate impacts research and risk analysis Review Chicago climate impacts research and risk analysis III.Chicago Climate Action Plan adaptation IV.Advisor updates: adaptation successes V.Next steps DRAFT

5. 4 Illustrative Chicago Climate Change Projections Under a high emissions scenario, the Midwest could experience changes in temperature and precipitation such as: Midwest Seasonal Precipitation Events Projected under high emissions 2010-2039 2040-2069 Winters and Springs Facts and chart source: Hayhoe et al. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 2010. Summers % changes relative to a 1961-1990 average Increased annual avg. Chicago temperatures, from 50° Fahrenheit (F) to 59° F by end of century An occurrence of 45-85 days over 95° F per year by end of century, (higher than the 2007 projection of 31 days) Springs with 20% more precipitation events and summers with 10% fewer by 2040, as compared to current frequencies Impacts Research 2070-2099

6. 5 DRAFT Chart source: Hayhoe, U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2009. Midwest Plant Hardiness Zones Observed and projected changes under multiple emissions Chicago’s changing climate could affect its: Illustrative Chicago Climate Change Effects Built environment, increasing the need for resources the projected climate change impact on City departments and functions, for 2010-2099, could cost $2.54B in a high emissions scenario Fact source: Oliver Wyman, Corporate Risk Case Study, 2008. Natural environment, changing ecosystems and habitat Midwest Plant Hardiness Zones could shift 1 zone, a 10° F range change in the lowest temperature of the year, every 30 years Fact source: Hayhoe, U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2009. People, increasing morbidity Chicago could experience 1,200 heat-related deaths per year by 2085 Fact source: Hayhoe, Journal of Great Lakes Research, 2010. Impacts Research

7. 6 DRAFT Copyright 2010, City of Chicago Economic Risk of Climate Impacts 1.Areas & type of financial impact (e.g. capital investment, operational costs) 2.Primary impact drivers, (e.g. heat, precipitation) 3.Nature of the impact, (e.g. deterioration of building facades) 4.Magnitude of potential impacts Risk Analysis The City, in partnership with Oliver Wyman, analyzed economic impacts on City infrastructure, key departments and budgets Chart source: Oliver Wyman, Corporate Risk Case Study, 2008. Avg. additional annual cost in 2007 dollars by climate driver and period

8. 7 DRAFT Copyright 2010, City of Chicago Adaptation Implementation Prioritization Risk Prioritization Chart Source: MWH, Chicago Area Climate Change Quick Guide, 2008. 125 Potential Adaptation Actions Organized by Risk, Timing and Department The City, in partnership with MWH Global, prioritized adaptation actions by risk, timing, and department Identify adaptation strategies and develop implementation tactics to reduce vulnerability to: - Extreme heat - Extreme precipitation - Buildings/infrastructure/equipment - Ecosystem degradation

9. 8 DRAFT Adaptation Advisory Group Agenda Copyright 2010, City of Chicago I.Introductions II.Climate impacts research and risk analysis III.Chicago Climate Action Plan adaptation Review approach and progress Discuss Chicago’s current and future adaptation responses IV.Advisor updates: adaptation successes V.Next steps DRAFT

10. 9 ADAPTATION Built Environment Natural Environment People Copyright 2010, City of Chicago FIVE STRATEGIES DRAFT

11. 10 DRAFT Model City adaptation implementation for CCAP scale-out Leverage City business as usual to serve adaptation goals Prioritize vulnerable communities Balance the need for research with the need to act Enhance collateral benefits of climate change mitigation CCAP’s Adaptation Drivers Approach

12. 11 DRAFT Research University of Illinois Oliver Wyman MWH Global Research and Implementation Partners Copyright 2010, City of Chicago Strategy A.T. Kearney Center for Clean Air Policy Approach

13. 12 DRAFT CCAP Accountability and Leadership Chicago Mayor’s Office Green Ribbon Committee CCAP Adaptation Target Work Groups Copyright 2010, City of Chicago Chicago Climate Leader Group Natural EnvironmentPeopleBuilt Environment Approach

14. 13 DRAFT City Department CCAP Lead By Example (LBE) 20 work plans created for Departments & Agencies 68 CCAP adaptation initiatives managed by green staff Milestones approved by Commissioners and presented to Mayor’s Office Copyright 2010, City of Chicago Illustrative 2010-2011 LBE Adaptation Initiatives Dept./ Agency ActionInitiativeTop 5? OwnerQ3-2010 MilestoneStatus AviationPrepare people Improve customer service for stranded passengers in anticipation of frequent and high intensity storm events Jane Doe Develop a plan to improve the passenger assistance program Delayed Environ- ment Prepare natural environment Convene Ecosystem Adaptation Work Group to prepare Chicago's landscapes for anticipated climate changes xJessica Doe Convene Ecosystem Adaptation Working Group to discuss priorities On Track General Services Prepare built environment Ensure that cooling centers have adequate back-up generation John Doe Emergency generation is in place Complete Approach

15. 14 DRAFT CCAP Adaptation Evolution 2007 2008 20092010 Understood the climate science: Assess climate impacts Assessed economic risk: Project City cost of no action at -$2.54B in high- emissions Developed adaptation action framework: Prioritize actions by risk & timing Created 5 climate impacts working groups: 21 departments & agencies create 39 “Tactics” for 5 groups Launched CCAP: Mayor, September Created CCAP department work plans: Departments commit to adaptation actions through work plans Defined adaptation targets: Define 3 targets Hosting “Lessons Learned” meetings: Improve responses to extreme weather events Forming Adaptation Advisory Group: Will provide guidance and oversight Current Progress

16. 15 DRAFT CCAP Adaptation Target: Built Environment Temperature Piloted high-albedo materials for roofs and streetscapes Precipitation Developed a trunk sewer model for 775 miles of pipe to prioritize resources Infrastructure Reinvigorated catchbasin control Current Progress Trunk Sewer Improved Existing Trunk Existing on RogersRogers Ave CIP $0 ~$8M~$6M ~$2M Stormwater management: Chicago’s comprehensive sewer model Climate impactsExample actions to prepare the built environment

17. 16 DRAFT CCAP Adaptation Target: Natural Environment Current Progress Temperature Created the Urban Forest Agenda and the Chicago Trees Initiative Water SystemsExpanded use of wetland water control structures, e.g., establish stormwater parks Ecosystems Crafted the Invasive Species Ordinance Climate impacts Example actions to prepare the natural environment Chicago’s Urban Forest Agenda Chicago Trees Initiative

18. 17 DRAFT CCAP Adaptation Target: People Current Progress Temperature Prioritized tree planting initiatives to mitigate urban heat island (UHI) effect Health Created Air Quality Action Agenda to, e.g., decrease ground level ozone EcosystemsDeveloped Climate Action Plan for Nature, communicated native specie planting and habitat preservation Climate impactsExample actions to prepare people Addressing UHI island through increased vegetation

19. 18 DRAFT Three major focus areas for climate change r esponse: 1. Maintain affects: infrastructure/assets resilience and conservation 2. Maintain processes: technological processes 3. Maintain systems: systematic/behavioral Source reviewed: Economics of Climate Adaptation, 2009. Adaptation Responses Future Progress

20. 19 DRAFT Mitigation Performance Indicators CCAP created a formal system for measuring mitigation action progress CCAP aims to measure adaptation progress for internal decision-making and illustrating progress to the public Future Progress Illustrative CCAP 2008-2009 dashboard of progress by action

21. 20 DRAFT Adaptation Performance Indicators Future Progress Potential measures Climate change measures Climate readiness measures –Stormwater catch-basin restrictors in place (built environment) –Permeable pavement built (built environment) –Water control structures sized for extreme precipitation (natural environment) –Urban Heat Island area planted with climate ready trees (natural environment) Surveillance measures –Heat-related fatalities per year (people) –Street closure hours per year due to flooding (people, built environment) –Power shut down hours per year (people, built environment) –Heat-related school and labor absences per year, (people) –Beach closure days per year, (natural environment)

22. 21 DRAFT CCAP Immediate Priorities Refine adaptation working groups and support leaders Leverage existing City processes and plans to serve adaptation goals Prioritize adaptation implementation for Chicagoans most vulnerable to climate change impacts Participate in climate impacts research, e.g., climate analyses and services for the Midwest Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments grant Learn from other Cities’ best practice Research Next Steps

23. 22 DRAFT Adaptation Advisory Group Agenda Copyright 2010, City of Chicago I.Introductions II.Climate Impacts Research and Risk Analysis III.Chicago Climate Action Plan Adaptation IV.Advisor Updates: Adaptation Successes Review New York City’s approach Review City of Toronto’s approach V.Next Steps DRAFT

24. 23 DRAFT New York City Other Approach

25. 24 DRAFT City of Toronto Other Approach

26. 25 DRAFT Adaptation Advisory Group Agenda Copyright 2010, City of Chicago I.Introductions II.Climate Impacts Research and Risk Analysis III.Chicago Climate Action Plan Adaptation IV.Advisor Updates: Adaptation Successes V.Next Steps Discuss Advisor takeaways and next steps DRAFT

27. 26 DRAFT CCAP Adaptation Next Steps Guidance on metrics approach? Critique of existing adaptation implementation? Thoughts on future (2011) emphasis? Next Steps

28. 27 DRAFT Adaptation Advisor Survey What would your organization need to do in order to prepare for the impacts of a changed climate? Take Away

29. 28 DRAFT Next Meeting Date: Tuesday, February 1, 2011 Location: Chicago Department of Environment, 30 North La Salle, Suite 2, Chicago, Illinois 60602 Topic emphasis: -Provide communications input -Identify existing resources and funding needs

30. 29 DRAFT Thank You

31. 30 DRAFT Appendix

32. 31 DRAFT Adaptation Resources www.chicagoclimateaction.org Copyright 2010, City of Chicago Projections and potential impacts Adaptation quick guide Corporate risk analysis

33. 32 DRAFT Defining Adaptation The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change defines adaptation as the: "adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities” Source: IPPC Working Group II, Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, 2007.

34. 33 DRAFT Migrating Climates Source: Hayhoe et al, Journal of Great Lakes Research, 2010. Summers: Hot, humid Winters: warmer, more snow

35. 34 DRAFT Impact and Probability Distributions Chart source: Oliver Wyman, Corporate Risk Case Study, 2008.

36. 35 DRAFT Stormwater management Urban forest management Green infrastructure to help capture stormwater on-site High albedo surfaces Mitigation-Adaptation Overlap Example Complementary Actions

37. 36 DRAFT Chicago Green Alleys The Chicago Green Alley Handbook

38. 37 DRAFT Stormwater Management