1. Post-2012 Issues under the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol for COP 13 and COP/MOP 3 ______________ ECBI LDC Workshop Bali, Indonesia 29-30 November 2007 M.J. Mace FIELD London

2. 2 Presentation Outline Post-2012 Issues and Challenges Threads to be woven together 1.Ad-hoc Working Group on commitments for Annex I Parties (AWG) 2.Dialogue under the Convention on long-term cooperative action to enhance implementation 3.Article 9 – review of Kyoto Protocol 4.Russian Proposal – voluntary commitments Bali Roadmap

3. 3 Post-2012 Issues and Challenges Convention - aims to bring developed country GHG emissions back to 1990 levels toward stabilisation of concentrations Kyoto - aims to reduce overall developed country emissions by about 5% below 1990 levels over ‘first commitment period’ 2008-2012 –anticipates ‘subsequent’ commitment periods, but –does not specify duration –does not specify goal How to select a level of ambition for Kyoto Parties?

4. 4 Developing Country Contributions?

5. 5 Projected development of GHG emissions around the world (60 years)

6. 6 Political challenges Some developed country Convention Parties with major emissions have decided not to ratify Kyoto Protocol and thus have no target (US, Australia) - US was 36% of industrialised emissions in 1990 Some developing countries that have ratified Kyoto do not have targets but have rapidly increasing emissions (e.g., China). - China is the world’s second largest emitter

7. 7 How to address this dynamic? Article 3.9 of the Kyoto Protocol required Parties with targets to begin discussion of the second commitment period no later than 7 years before the end of the first commitment period (2005). With some countries not active in Kyoto, another process had to be found for engaging these countries.

8. 8 Two negotiating processes established to address future commitments Ad Hoc Open-ended Working Group (AWG) –Open to all Parties –Considers future commitments for Annex I Parties Dialogue on long-term cooperative action to address climate change by enhancing implementation of the Convention –Open to all Parties –Considers cooperative action to promote existing global agreement under UNFCCC

9. 9 1. Ad Hoc Working Group on Article 3.9 Tasked to consider further commitments for Annex I Parties beyond 2012 under the KP Aims to complete work as early as possible, to ensure no gap between first and second commitment periods Has met four times May 2006, Dec. 2006, May 2007, Aug. 2007 AWG4 will resume at COP/MOP 3 Discussed written submissions of Parties, oral statements Timetable: views collected by 9 November 2007 on timetable to complete work

10. 10 AWG 1: December 2005 Chair’s indicative list of topics relevant to work 1.Scientific basis for determining level of ambition for further Annex I commitments –Scenarios for stabilising GHG concentrations (to guide KP’s role in contributing to ultimate objective of UNFCCC) –Adverse impacts; costs of impacts and adaptation –Other relevant scientific, technical and socio-economic information 2.Emissions trends, mitigation potential of Annex I Parties –Costs of impacts and adaptation –Socio-economic drivers, PAMs –Sectoral analyses and impacts on competitiveness

11. 11 3. Experience gained in implementing the KP methodologies, LULUCF, PAMS, flex mechs, demonstrable progress 4.Architecture of further commitments for Annex I Parties Length of commitment period review of sectors and sources of emissions differentiation and burden sharing feasibility of measures to complement targets, e.g., sectoral approaches contribution of flexible mechanisms incentives for development, deployment of technology 5.Legal matters Scope of amendments to Annex B, Elements of KP to be amended or supplemented Entry into force of amendments to Annex B, avoidance of gap.

12. 12 AWG-2: Bonn 2006 Agreement on work programme for 2007: Analysis of mitigation potential, effectiveness, efficiency, costs, benefits, of current and future policies, measures and technologies, taking into account their economic and social consequences, their sectoral dimensions, and the international context in which they are deployed Identification of possible ranges of emission reductions by Annex I Parties, through their domestic and international efforts, and analysis of their contribution to the ultimate objective of the Convention

13. 13 AWG-3: Nairobi Dec. 2006 Reviewed mitigation potential of policies, measures and technologies at the disposal of Annex I Parties. AWG notes useful parameters for its work –According to IPCC scenarios analysed to date, global emissions of GHGs need to be reduced to very low levels, well below half of levels in 2000 by the middle of the 21 th century to stabilise concentrations at the lowest level analysed to date. AWG noted inputs made by Parties, presenters, observers

14. 14 AWG 4: Vienna Aug. 2007 Mitigation potentials and identification of emission reduction objectives of Annex I Parties Conclusions: –Annex I Parties: to achieve lowest stabilization level assessed to date by IPCC (450 ppm) would require Annex I Parties to reduce by 25-40% below 1990 levels by 2020. –Global emissions must peak in next 10-15 years –Be reduced to very low levels, ‘well below half of 2000 levels’ by mid 20 th Cent. –Greater mitigation potential available through wider use of the flex mechs. –Note concern of SIDS and some developing countries that lower stabilisation concentrations levels below 450 ppm need to be analysed

15. 15 Technical paper (FCCC/TP/2007/1) –‘Synthesis of information relevant to the determination of the mitigation potential and to the identification of possible ranges of emission reduction objectives of Annex I Parties’ AWG 4 part II - resume in Bali (possible emission reduction ranges) AWG 5 - June 2008 (possible means to achieve mitigation objectives).

16. 16 2. Dialogue on long-term cooperative action to enhance implementation of the Convention 4 workshops, beginning May 2006 Exchange of experiences, strategic approaches for long-term cooperative action on: (1) advancing development goals in a sustainable way; (2) addressing action on adaptation; (3) realising the full potential of technology; (4) realising the full potential of market-based opportunities. Informed by best available scientific information.

17. 17 Forum was designed to: identify actions to promote research, development and deployment of cleaner technologies identify ways to support voluntary actions by developing countries identify ways to promote access by developing countries to climate-friendly technologies and technologies for adaptation. Open and non-binding discussion, Held ‘without prejudice to any future negotiations, commitments, process, framework or mandate under the Convention.’

18. 18 Results to date: Far ranging discussions, constructive atmosphere Last of four workshops held in Vienna in August 2007 First Co-facilitators’ report produced for COP-12 Second Report will be produced for COP-13 Dialogue Working Paper 8: ‘Report on analysis of existing and potential investment and financial flows relevant to the development of an effective and appropriate international response to climate change’ - input to 4 th workshop October 31 – secretariat convened workshop to build upon report and ideas expressed in Dialogue Parties to consider whether/how to continue the Dialogue or to convert it into formal negotiations

19. 19 Dialogue Scenario Note: Common elements that may provide direction to the regime A long-term goal, consistent with what the science tells us, to provide overall direction to the regime, with short-term reduction objectives for developed countries and strategies for cleaner development paths for developing countries, all reflecting different national circumstances; how positive incentives could be provided for actions put forward by developing countries in line with sustainable development policies and objectives;

20. 20 market mechanisms, including the carbon market, and other fiscal and regulatory approaches that can reduce the cost of mitigation, provide incentives for cleaner development and help mobilize the required investment; adaptation: the need to ensure that adaptation is addressed with a sense of urgency and in a comprehensive manner by all Parties, supported by effective regional and international cooperative action;

21. 21 Efforts to stimulate the diffusion, transfer and deployment of existing lower emissions technologies and to promote investment in the development and demonstration of additional technological solutions; Sectoral opportunities - mitigation opportunities in specific sectors to allow countries with varying national circumstances to contribute actively to the effort (e.g., initiatives in sectors such as cement and in reducing emissions from deforestation).

22. 22 How to move forward? 1.Extend the Dialogue, with report to COP, similar to existing Dialogue or with further mandates, timelines; 2.Continue discussions under an item on the COP agenda and reorganise and consolidate agendas of the Subsidiary Bodies around 4 ‘building blocks’; 3.Establish a negotiating process to be undertaken by a working group or other negotiating body established under the COP with a clear mandate and timeframes; 4.Establish a fully integrated negotiating process to be undertaken in working group or other negotiating body established under both the COP and COP/MOP with a clear mandate and set timeframes.

23. 23 3. Second review of the Kyoto Protocol pursuant to its Article 9 (COP/MOP 11) Article 9: Parties are to periodically review the Protocol in light of best available scientific information on climate change and its impacts, and take appropriate action First review completed at COP/MOP 2 Second review to take place at COP/MOP 4 (2008) Submissions of views on how to carry out this review In Bali, Parties to consider scope and content of review, and process for preparing for review.

24. 24 Scope and content Implementation issues v. architectural issues Role of the flexible mechanisms –broadening and deepening, so more reductions can be achieved in developing countries Annexes –Annex A: sectors, gases (LULUCF, bunker fuels) –Annex B: Parties), adaptation, procedural issues –Nature of commitments –Adoption of amendments Adaptation and levy on flexible mechanisms. Procedural issues around review –technical papers, workshops, submissions for input into review

25. 25 4. Russian Proposal (COP/MOP 2) Russian concerned with existing obstacles under the current regime for countries interested in taking on voluntary commitments. Once amendment to include a new Party is adopted, ¾ of Parties must ratify. Seeks ways to make it more attractive for non-Annex I Parties to “contribute to the objective of the Convention.” Commitments would need to be flexible; Incentives could be explored to encourage such commitments.

26. 26 Two proposals: 1. “Kyoto” track - COP/MOP could agree on simplified procedures to allow Parties to join Annex I and Annex B. 2.“Convention” track – COP could agree on an approach to support national voluntary commitments by developing countries. In Bali, Parties to consider how to address the Proposal in existing agenda items

27. 27 COP/MOP 2 requested its President to convene a workshop in May 2007 to clarify and explore the implications of the Russian proposal – that appropriate procedures be developed to enable Kyoto Parties to adopt voluntary commitments Parties to consider the report (FCCC/KP/CMP/2007/INF.2)

28. 28 Bali Roadmap Decision: agreeing on a process between Bali and COP 15 (Copenhagen) to weave together strands, while keeping all countries on board. Process: working group or other body under Convention, timetable for meetings, milestones for agreeing on elements, feed in from AWG Substance: aspirational long-term goal (overarching global GHG reduction ambition), short term milestones on bringing information into the process (e.g., building blocks of adaptation, mitigation, tech transfer, financing; sectoral potential for reductions, positive incentives; what can be achieved)

29. 29 Thank you for your attention. FIELD www.field.org.uk mj.mace@field.org.uk Tel: +44 20 7388-2117 Fax: +44 20 7388-2826 3 Endsleigh Street London WC1H 0DD United Kingdom