1. Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Forest Growth and Yield Xinbiao Zhu CIF-NL-AGM St John’s, NL November 12–14, 2014

2. Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Forest inventory (stand type, site quality…) Planning periods (5yrs) Planning horizon (160 yrs) Decision variables Management strategies G & Y curves Coefficients Objective functions (management goals, Constraints) LP AAC Stocking level Species composition Age structure Harvest schedule Forest Planning System

3. Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service GIS forestry inventory

4. Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Sources of forest growth & yield curves Stand table projection model (stand simulator): Best possible regression equations link growth and influencing factors derived from PSP data, and calibrated using TSP data. Calculate periodic recruitment, increment and survival of tree cohort (defined by species, DBH, and age). Project overall stand development over time based on characterising the stand structure at the start of the projection period (initial condition). A conventional stand table format is used to define structure of a stand on a specific site at any point in time. Simplicity, relative accuracy in prediction of volume growth, largely used in forest industry for timber supply analysis and management planning. Require no climate data in projection of stand development (assuming that tree growth conditions remain constant over time).

5. Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Process-based forest growth model Physiological process-based growth model: Key physiological processes are driven by climate and soil variables that define tree growth and biomass yield. Complex data of many parameters for calibration, validation, and prediction. Don’t have the same accuracy as empirical G & Y model. Need professional expertise to calibrate and use. Useful tools in research of climate change impacts, but rarely suitable for practical forestry. Forest gap model: Key physiological processes are simplified and driven by climate and soil variables that define tree growth and biomass yield. Less parameters for calibration, validation, and prediction. Don’t have the same accuracy as empirical G & Y model. Need professional expertise to calibrate and use. Popular tools in research of climate change impacts, but rarely suitable for practical forestry.

6. Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Jabowa III forest gap model Initial Stand Condition (PSPs) DBH, Height, Species Site Conditions (PSPs) Elevation, Latitude, Soil texture, Soil rock percentage, Soil depth, Soil fertility status, Root depth, Depth of water table Historical weather records Future climate change scenarios Temperature Precipitation

7. Composition of the Atmosphere and Radiative Forcing Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service PERMANENT GASESVARIABLE GASES GasPercentGasPercentPPM(by volume) Dry air N 2 78.08H 2 O0 to 4 O 2 20.95CO 2 0.0391391 Ar0.93 (<1%)CH 4 0.000171.7 Ne0.0018N 2 O0.000030.3 He0.0005O 3 0.0000040.04 H 2 0.00006*CFCs0.000000020.0002 Xe0.000009*F-gases (HFC, PFC, SF6)

8. Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service IPCC Assessment Reports:1990 SR90, 1992 IS92, 2000 SAR, TAR, 2007 AR4, 2013 AR5 Others: academic (1/2/4xCO2), Stabilization Pathways (S, SRE, SP), etc. IPCC scenario development process Socio- economic scenarios Population GDP Energy Industry Transportation Agriculture … Emission scenarios GHGs Aerosols & VOCs… Land use & land cover Radiative forcing scenarios to GCM Atmospheric concentration Global carbon cycle Atmospheric chemistry Global climate model (GCM) scenarios Temperature Humidity Soil moisture Extreme events …

9. Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service GCM calibration IPCC AR5 Report

10. Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service (Moss et al., Nature 2010, IPCC AR5 2013) IPCC 2013 AR5 Scenarios Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) NameRadiative forcing CO 2 - equiv. emissions PathwayAR 5 surface temperature projections ( o C) 2046 – 2065 Mean & range 2081- 2100 Mean & range RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 ~2.6 W m -2, peak b/w 2010-2020 ~4.5 W m -2, peak at 2010 ~6.0 W m -2, peak at 2080 ~8.0 W m -2, rising in 21 st century ~490 ppm ~650 ppm ~850 ppm >1,370 ppm peak & decline stabilization rising 1.0 (0.4 -1.6) 1.4 (0.9 – 2.0) 1.3 (0.8 – 1.8) 2.0 (1.4 – 2.6) 1.0 (0.3 -1.7) 1.8 (1.1 – 2.6) 2.2 (1.4 – 3.1) 3.7 (2.6 – 4.8)

11. Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Outputs from GCMs

12. Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Outputs from GCMs

13. Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service CGCM3T47 has a resolution of 4.7 o Latitude x 4.7 o Longitude (map grids) Wood supply analysis is based on ecoregion. GCM Resolution

14. GCM Outputs vs. Observed Data Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Port Aux Basque Corner Brook Deer LakeSt. Anthony

15. GCM Outputs vs. Observed Data Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Port Aux Basque Corner Brook Deer LakeSt. Anthony

16. A Downscaling Technique (Weather Generator) Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Distribution of dry & wet length Mean temp standard deviation dry/wet days Distribution of dry & wet days Inputs: historical weather records (30 years) Solar radiation air temperature precipitation Outputs: synthetic surface weather (30 years) Solar radiation air temperature precipitation Seasonal cycles of MEANS and STDEVs are modeled with Fourier Series

17. Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Downscaled Minimum Temperature Port Aux Basque Corner Brook Deer LakeSt. Anthony

18. Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Downscaled Precipitation Port Aux Basque Corner Brook Deer LakeSt. Anthony

19. Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Spatial interpolation of downscaled climate data Prepare database (daily minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, solar radiation*) for all sites. Temperature adjustment based on the lapse rate (6 o C/km ) before and after applying the GIS surface interpolation.

20. Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Converting data to the required format for JABOWA III forest gap model Deer Lake – Baseline – 1961-1990

21. Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Jabowa III forest gap model Initial Stand Condition (PSPs) DBH, Height, Species Site Conditions (PSPs) Elevation, Latitude, Soil texture, Soil rock percentage, Soil depth, Soil fertility status, Root depth, Depth of water table Historical weather records Future climate change scenarios Temperature Precipitation

22. Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Model calibration and simulation PSP growth data – historical JABOWA-III Gap Model Historical climate data 1960 - 2011 PSP tree list Initial stand condition AR 5 climate change scenarios 2008 - 2100 Simulated growth – RCP 2.6 Simulated growth – RCP 4.5 Simulated growth – RCP 6.0 Simulated growth – RCP 8.5Simulated growth – Historical Calibration

23. Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Model Calibration Immature balsam fir (Plot number 187005, District 14) Balsam fir White birch

24. Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Simulated basal Area Balsam fir – Avalon Ecoregion Simulation Period (1 = 5 yrs)

25. Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Simulated stand volume Balsam fir – Central Ecoregion Simulation Period (1 = 5 yrs)

26. Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Estimate of climate change impacts PSP growth data – historical JABOWA-III Gap Model Historical climate data 1960 - 2011 PSP tree list Initial stand condition AR 5 climate change scenarios 2008 - 2100 Simulated growth – RCP 2.6 Simulated growth – RCP 4.5 Simulated growth – RCP 6.0 Simulated growth – RCP 8.5Simulated growth – Historical Calibration Strata-b ased climate change modifiers– RCP 2.6 Strata-b ased climate change modifiers– RCP 4.5 Strata-b ased climate change modifiers– RCP 6.0 Strata-b ased climate change modifiers– RCP 8.5 Calculation of climate change modifiers

27. Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Climate Change Modifiers Province Average RCP 2.6bSbFwSwBtL Year RCP 2.6 01.000 10.9710.9540.9980.9060.904 50.9120.9100.8760.9560.918 100.8820.9080.9070.9050.825 150.8520.8610.7770.9290.833 200.8330.8500.8190.9080.770 250.8290.8270.7820.9320.759 300.8350.8390.7740.8980.760 350.8340.8410.7750.9080.742 400.8330.8100.7560.8980.675 450.8220.8030.7201.0180.558 500.8270.7860.6931.2840.512 550.8390.7800.6370.7720.452 600.8430.7740.6310.7960.364 650.8490.7680.6150.8210.343 700.8550.7630.6060.8670.308 750.8600.7590.6011.0240.239 800.8650.7580.5880.9970.024 850.8710.7570.5721.0820 900.8760.7550.5621.1600 RCP 4.5bSbFwSwBtL Year RCP 4.5 01.000 10.9700.9421.0100.9040.901 50.8800.8650.8630.9410.855 100.8200.7930.8060.8920.830 150.7910.7730.7580.8730.812 200.7670.7370.7650.8730.793 250.7520.732 0.9110.745 300.7470.7210.7160.9020.754 350.7320.7150.7130.8900.756 400.7160.7110.7140.9150.800 450.7030.6580.6881.1140.658 500.7000.6320.6561.4630.673 550.7050.6110.6450.7650.696 600.7030.5920.6310.7960.703 650.7030.5860.6060.8330.501 700.7040.5810.5880.8990.256 750.7040.5760.5661.3810.258 800.7040.5700.5421.3200.138 850.7050.5630.5101.3660 900.7040.5560.4831.5880 RCP 8.5bSbFwSwBtL Year RCP 8.5 01.000 10.9510.9210.9920.8910.901 50.8430.7430.8440.9030.889 100.7730.6970.7880.8210.781 150.7160.6260.6910.8220.695 200.6850.5920.7300.8090.634 250.6540.5820.6950.8310.613 300.6410.5830.6620.7860.728 350.6250.5280.6280.8220.748 400.6120.5000.6140.8690.696 450.5960.4550.6061.0310.550 500.5890.4360.5831.0680.439 550.5770.4110.5560.6500.441 600.5590.3980.5410.6570.459 650.5500.3860.5180.6570.486 700.5440.3780.5020.6440.529 750.5370.3690.4841.1860.615 800.5300.3600.4651.1490.449 850.5240.3520.4271.0990.302 900.5170.3440.3861.0680.143

28. Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Climate Modifiers

29. Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Climate Modifiers

30. Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Yield curves x Climate modifiers Original yield curves Climate modifiers

31. Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Climate-modified yield curves

32. Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Forest inventory (stand type, site quality…) Planning periods (5yrs) Planning horizon (160 yrs) Decision variables Management strategies Modified G & Y curves Coefficients Objective functions (management goals, Constraints) LP AAC Stocking level Species composition Age structure Harvest schedule Forest Planning System

33. Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Acknowledgement CFSI and IBES funded the project through graduate student fellowship UNB colleagues provide supervision of graduate student activities NRCan colleagues provide downscaled climate change scenarios data

34. Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service