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JTH 17-07-2001 1 COP6bis/SBSTA Briefing on WGI contribution Bonn: Tuesday 17 July 2001 The Scientific Basis Sir John Houghton Overview of WGI findings,

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Presentation on theme: "JTH 17-07-2001 1 COP6bis/SBSTA Briefing on WGI contribution Bonn: Tuesday 17 July 2001 The Scientific Basis Sir John Houghton Overview of WGI findings,"— Presentation transcript:

1 JTH 17-07-2001 1 COP6bis/SBSTA Briefing on WGI contribution Bonn: Tuesday 17 July 2001 The Scientific Basis Sir John Houghton Overview of WGI findings, observations, radiative forcing Dr John MitchellModel evaluation, detection and attribution Dr Bob WatsonThe carbon cycle Dr Ulrich CubaschClimate projections (including regional projections and sea level) IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

2 JTH 17-07-2001 2 COP6bis/SBSTA IPCC Website http://www.ipcc.ch

3 JTH 17-07-2001 3 COP6bis/SBSTA Structure of IPCC 1997  2001 WMO United Nations UNEPCOP/FCCC Subsidiary bodies of the framework convention on climate change World Climate Programme IGBP Global Climate Observing system etc IPCC Bureau WGI Science WGII Impacts and adaptation WGIII Mitigation Lead Authors, Contributors, Reviewers

4 JTH 17-07-2001 4 COP6bis/SBSTA Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis WGI contribution to IPCC Third Assessment Report Summary for Policymakers (SPM) Drafted by a team of 59 Approved ‘sentence by sentence’ by WGI plenary (99 Governments and 45 scientists) 14 chapters 881 pages 120 Lead Authors 515 Contributing Authors 4621 References quoted

5 JTH 17-07-2001 5 COP6bis/SBSTA

6 JTH 17-07-2001 6 COP6bis/SBSTA Key steps in preparation of Working Group I (science) component of Third Assessment Report WORKING GROUP I SESSION LEAD AUTHORS MEETING TS / SPM DRAFTING INFORMAL REVIEW EXPERT REVIEW GOVERNMENT REVIEW 1998199920002001 Bad Munsteriefel Scoping Meeting Vienna VII 1 Paris 2 Arusha 3 Auckland 4 VictoriaShanghai New York Shanghai VIII 5

7 JTH 17-07-2001 7 COP6bis/SBSTA What is global warming about ?

8 JTH 17-07-2001 8 COP6bis/SBSTA SPM 1a Variations of the Earth’s surface temperature for the past 140 years

9 JTH 17-07-2001 9 COP6bis/SBSTA SPM 1b Variations of the Earth’s surface temperature for the past 1,000 years

10 JTH 17-07-2001 10 COP6bis/SBSTA Concentration of Carbon Dioxide and Methane Have Risen Greatly Since Pre-Industrial Times Carbon dioxide: 33% riseMethane: 100% rise The MetOffice. Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research. BW 5

11 JTH 17-07-2001 11 COP6bis/SBSTA The last 160,000 years (from ice cores) and the next 100 years Time (thousands of years) 1601208040Now –10 0 10 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 CO 2 in 2100 (with business as usual) Double pre-industrial CO 2 Lowest possible CO 2 stabilisation level by 2100 CO 2 now Temperature difference from now °C CO 2 concentration (ppmv)

12 JTH 17-07-2001 12 COP6bis/SBSTA The Greenhouse Effect Solar radiation Long-wave radiation

13 JTH 17-07-2001 13 COP6bis/SBSTA The Enhanced Greenhouse Effect Solar (S) and longwave (L) radiation in Wm  2 at the top of the atmosphere SL236 T =  18°C SL 236232 CO 2 x 2 SL236 CO 2 x 2 SL236 CO 2 x 2 + Feedbacks H 2 O (+60%) Ice/Albedo (+60%) Cloud? Ocean? T S = 15°C  T S ~ 1.2K  T S ~ 2.5K

14 JTH 17-07-2001 14 COP6bis/SBSTA Variations of the Earth’s surface temperature; 1000 to 2100

15 JTH 17-07-2001 15 COP6bis/SBSTA The Carbon Cycle

16 JTH 17-07-2001 16 COP6bis/SBSTA Human Perturbation of the Carbon Cycle

17 JTH 17-07-2001 17 COP6bis/SBSTA Partitioning of CO 2 uptake using O 2 measurements

18 JTH 17-07-2001 18 COP6bis/SBSTA Changing Land Use Changing land use could influence atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Hypothetically, if all of the carbon released by historical land-use changes could be restored to the terrestrial biosphere over the course of the century (e.g., by reforestation), CO 2 concentration would be reduced by 40 to 70 ppm.

19 JTH 17-07-2001 19 COP6bis/SBSTA Radiative Forcing

20 JTH 17-07-2001 20 COP6bis/SBSTA SPM 3

21 JTH 17-07-2001 21 COP6bis/SBSTA Estimated solar irradiance variations 1750-2000

22 JTH 17-07-2001 22 COP6bis/SBSTA Main climate changes Sea level rise Higher temperatures - especially on land Hydrological cycle more intense Changes at regional level

23 JTH 17-07-2001 23 COP6bis/SBSTA Sea-level transgression scenarios for Bangladesh Adapted from Milliman et al. (1989).

24 JTH 17-07-2001 24 COP6bis/SBSTA Percent of the continental USA with a much above normal proportion of total annual precipitation from 1-day extreme events (more than 2 inches or 50.8mm) Karl et al. 1996 BW 7

25 JTH 17-07-2001 25 COP6bis/SBSTA Patterns of Climate Response

26 JTH 17-07-2001 26 COP6bis/SBSTA The 1997/98 El Niño Strongest on Record* *As shown by changes in sea-surface temperature (relative to the 1961-1990 average) for the eastern tropical Pacific off Peru El Niño years La Niña years BW 14

27 JTH 17-07-2001 27 COP6bis/SBSTA Global ocean circulation A simplified view of the global thermohaline conveyor belt, showing cooling and downwelling in the North Atlantic, warming and freshening in the southern hemisphere, and return flow as a warm surface current. Cooling Warm and less salineAntarctic circumpolar current Warm surface current Intermediate waters

28 JTH 17-07-2001 28 COP6bis/SBSTA Stabilisation of Climate

29 JTH 17-07-2001 29 COP6bis/SBSTA UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE Rio de Janeiro : June 1992 ARTICLE 2: OBJECTIVE The ultimate objective of this Convention.... is to achieve,.… stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient : to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change. to ensure that food production is not threatened, and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.

30 JTH 17-07-2001 30 COP6bis/SBSTA

31 JTH 17-07-2001 31 COP6bis/SBSTA CO 2 emissions for SRES and stabilisation scenarios

32 JTH 17-07-2001 32 COP6bis/SBSTA

33 JTH 17-07-2001 33 COP6bis/SBSTA

34 JTH 17-07-2001 34 COP6bis/SBSTA

35 JTH 17-07-2001 35 COP6bis/SBSTA

36 JTH 17-07-2001 36 COP6bis/SBSTA

37 JTH 17-07-2001 37 COP6bis/SBSTA

38 JTH 17-07-2001 38 COP6bis/SBSTA

39 JTH 17-07-2001 39 COP6bis/SBSTA

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