1. © Human Systems Limited 1999-2003 1 Project Management and Complexity Theory The Human Heart of Project Management. Dr. Terry Cooke-Davies Managing Director, Human Systems Limited Adjunct Professor, University of Technology, Sydney Honorary Research Fellow, University College, London.

2. © Human Systems Limited 1999-2003 2 Project Management and Complexity Theory Today’s Agenda Project management’s roots in “control theory”, and some unanswered paradoxes. Some assumptions “smuggled in” to project management along with “control theory”. Insights from complexity sciences. Are they just the latest “fad”, or a radical rethink of “management”? What might these insights mean for the management of projects?

3. © Human Systems Limited 1999-2003 3 Project Management and Complexity Theory Project Management’s Roots in Control Proto-Projects 6000+ Dramatic increase in work done as projects. Engineering 150+ Gantt etc. 100+ Military 60+ Professional Associations 40 North Sea Oil 30 PC/ICT 20 Pharma R&D 10+

4. © Human Systems Limited 1999-2003 4 Project Management and Complexity Theory Maturity of Different Industries

5. © Human Systems Limited 1999-2003 5 Project Management and Complexity Theory Some Paradoxes Project management expenditure and activity is rising BUT little evidence that project results are improving proportionately & “trainwrecks” still happen regularly. Pressure to improve resource productivity is rising in many industries BUT productivity is not responding as a result of project management. Major efforts are made to “learn lessons” from projects and transfer them across the organization. BUT PM focus remains on “control”.

6. © Human Systems Limited 1999-2003 6 Project Management and Complexity Theory Two Competing Explanations “We DO project management pretty well, but senior management doesn’t understand us, and so the environment is inappropriate” “Project Management is based on control theory/ operational research, and this is inadequate to investigate all aspects of life that bear on projects.”

7. © Human Systems Limited 1999-2003 7 Project Management and Complexity Theory Deeply-held Assumption 1: Systemic Control System/ Process Controller/ Manager Goals Classic project management thinking assumes “first-order” control – goals remain constant (or at least under change control). Gaps in benefits imply “second- order” control – goals are subject to change – system is more flexible, and more difficult to control. System/ Process Target Actual Operations Goals

8. © Human Systems Limited 1999-2003 8 Project Management and Complexity Theory Deeply Held Assumption 2: Individual is Distinct from Group.

9. © Human Systems Limited 1999-2003 9 Project Management and Complexity Theory A Radically Different View Separation: steer to avoid crowding local flockmates Alignment: steer towards the average heading of local flockmates Cohesion: steer to move toward the average position of local flockmates Source: Craig Reynolds http://www.red3d.com/cwr/boids/

10. © Human Systems Limited 1999-2003 10 Project Management and Complexity Theory “Complexity Theory” Has At Least Three Strands. Chaos theory and derivatives. –e.g. Glueck, 1988; Stewart, 1989. –Strange attractors, fractals. Dissipative structure theory –e.g. Prigogene –Bifurcations, spontaneous self-organization. Complex adaptive systems –e.g. Reynolds –Agent-based systems, spontaneous adaptation, self- organization “at the edge of chaos”. –“Complex organizational response” (Stacey and team) is one particular aspect.

11. © Human Systems Limited 1999-2003 11 Project Management and Complexity Theory “Organization” As “Communicative Relationships”. Conversation Responsive communicative action Turn-taking Local language practices Self-organization Power, inclusion & exclusion Fantasy & unconscious processes Organization as communicating in the living present. Source: Stacey (2001) Complex Responsive Processes.

12. © Human Systems Limited 1999-2003 12 Project Management and Complexity Theory Implications For PM Theory. As “flocking” is an emergent property of essential bird behaviour........ So “organization”, “knowledge” and so on are emergent properties of the essential human behaviour of communicating – of “complex responsive processes”.

13. © Human Systems Limited 1999-2003 13 Project Management and Complexity Theory Corroboration? 2 “Straws in the Wind”. Specific benchmark performance (days) Team authority & empowerment. Source: Unpublished PMKN Study. Org structure Project risk Relational norms Frequency Media Content Source: R. Müller. “Determinants for external communications of IT project managers”, IJPM, July 2003

14. © Human Systems Limited 1999-2003 14 Project Management and Complexity Theory Some Implications For The Management of Projects. 1. Redefine governance Above the waterline Free to take risks Encourage “owners” to find their own solutions Below the waterline Take no risks “Off limits” Given 2. Redefine team process Use “Open Space” principles “Self-organize” around clear goals. From “Process”  “Outcome” 3. Redefine capabilities of leaders Competence as conceptual level. Strategic competence Integrative competence.

15. © Human Systems Limited 1999-2003 15 Project Management and Complexity Theory Is It Real? There’s a breakthrough out there waiting to happen!!