1. Food and Biofuel Jan Kees Vis Unilever

2. What is sustainable? If we can continue doing it indefinitely, i.e. Sustainable activities contribute to ]Financial capital ]Social capital ]Human capital ]Natural capital

3. Planet Earth Time Natural Resource Consumption 4,500,000,000 3,500,000,000 3,000,000,000 2,000,000,000 1,000,000,000 530,000,000 480,000,000 310,000,000 200,000 32,000 10,000 500 Planet earth Proto-bacteria Photosynthesis Eukaryotic cells Algae Fish Plants Early mammals Homo Sapiens Cave paintings Agriculture Industrialisation 00:00 05:30 08:00 14:00 19:00 21:10 21:30 22:22 23:59:58 23:59:59:40 23:59:59:80 23:59:59:99 1234

4. Agriculture’s Current Global Footprint 33% of earth’s surface in crops or grazing—55% of habitable area

5. Ecosystems Change in ecosystems can stretch over billions of years There is no way of knowing what might be in store Current system supports homo sapiens Mankind has a marked influence on ecosystem services (MEA) Sustainability is an anthropogenic concept

6. Nature is insensitiveNature is tolerant Nature is benevolentNature is vulnerable Simple System Dynamics

7. Disturbing the equilibrium Ag system Edible oils market: 2.5 m barrels/day Ag system Energy market: 85.5 m barrels/day

8. Oil Palm and Forest Cover in Borneo

9. Biofuels & Renewables from Agriculture Biodiesel ]Palm oil ]Canola/Rape ]Soy ]Jatropha ]Pongamia ]Castor oil ]Sunflower ]Safflower ]Sugarcane Bioethanol ]Sugarcane ]Sugar beet ]Corn ]Wheat ]Grapes Cellulosic Ethanol ]Crop residue (rice, wheat, corn, sorghum) ]Perennial grasses ]Temperate tree plantations ]Tropical tree plantations #2 Heating/Furnace Oil ]Palm oil Renewable Energy ]Crop residue ]Temperate tree plantations ]Tropical tree plantations

10. Change vs disruption Ecosystems change all the time Natural change happens at geological time scales Ecosystems can flip from one dynamic equilibrium to another, but These transitions cannot be managed and must therefore be avoided

11. Reduce dependence on fossil fuel Energy conservation Low energy technologies (Capture carbon dioxide emissions) Alternative fuels Rwaste to energy Rbiomass to energy Kdirect conversion (power stations) Kbiomass to liquid biofuels (bioethanol, biodiesel)

12. IF biofuels is a good idea…. Then agriculture will have to produce food, feed, fiber and fuel For a population that will grow to 10 billion Land will be the limiting factor, Together with water

13. ..then these are the challenges Make optimum use of land in cultivation (no extensive agriculture) Organise access for farmers to best available technology Prioritise through policy instruments relative importance of food, feed, fiber, fuel “If burning food is a bad idea, then burning food with subsidy is criminal” “Consumption vs combustion”

14. Biofuels are not necessarily sustainable Farm inputs account for a lot of fossil fuel Net energy balance needs to be calculated Net carbon balance needs to be calculated ]Carbon to air ]Carbon to soil Soil health is crucial to productive capacity Replacement effects on other markets