6. Why Do Beliefs Die? You predicted that: your portfolios would continue to generate high returns for years to come; your portfolios would remain consistently in the top quartile; you would protect your clients against sudden drastic losses; you would maintain high outperformance and low tracking error simultaneously. Result: Your predictions were wrong, and your clients are gone.

7. Why Don't Beliefs Die? The Rev. William Miller predicted that the Second Coming of Christ would occur on: –April 23, 1843; –March 21, 1844; –October 22, 1844. Result: The world may not have ended, but the Seventh-Day Adventist Church today claims more than 11 million members worldwide. The Rev. Charles Taze Russell and his followers predicted that Christ would return "in the flesh" in: –1873 or 1874; –1881; –1914; –1918; –1925. Result: The ultimate "harvest" may not have occurred. But the Jehovah's Witnesses, founded by Russell, now number more than 3.5 million worldwide. Sources: Jon R. Stone, Expecting Armageddon: Essential Readings in Failed Prophecy (Routledge: New York and London, 2000); www.adventists.org; www.watchtower.org

8. How to Keep Beliefs Alive Successful movements feature charismatic founders or dynamic followers as their public "face” Their predictions are only a small part of a complex system of belief They have large numbers of loyal and vocal followers They foster a cohesive community with shared values and a strong sense of "belonging" Source: Jon R. Stone, Expecting Armageddon: Essential Readings in Failed Prophecy (Routledge: New York and London, 2000).