1. UDSMA USD E Unit for Sustainable Development and Environment Organization of American States Jan C. Vermeiren Principal Specialist Managing Water Resources in a Changing Climate in the Caribbean Region

2. UDSMA USD E Present Day Challenges: Securing reliable supply in the face of rising demand and reduction in the resource base. Future Challenges: Planning for potential impact of climate change on the demand and on the resource base. Multiple Challenges

3. UDSMA USD E Present Day Challenges: Supply and Demand Caribbean In several countries, annual per capita freshwater availability falls far below 1000 cubic meter, commonly used to measure scarcity. Deforestation in upper watersheds reduces water retention and base flow. Existing water storage capacity is inadequate. Water distribution systems are overstretched. Export agriculture depends increasingly on irrigation. Growth in population, and especially in tourism, drives increasing demand for water.

4. UDSMA USD E Climate Change: A Source of Uncertainty Traditional water resources management consists in keeping available supplies and demands in balance. Under a changed climate, it is unwise to rely on historical data as sole guide to the future. Use Global Climate models (GCm) to develop climate change scenarios that outline possible changes in key climate variables (temperature, rainfall, sea-level rise). Use Impact Assessment to determine/quantify positive or negative impacts of CC on population, infrastructure, socio-economic activities and ecosystems.

5. Emissions and concentrations of CO 2 from unmitigated and stabilising emission scenarios Unmitigated emissions 750 ppm stabilisation550 ppm stabilisation

6. Temperature rise Annual average, from the present day to the 2080s

7. Change in precipitation Annual average, from the present day to the 2080s

8. The rise in sea-level from unmitigated and stabilising emission scenarios 1900200021002200 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 Sea-level rise (m) Unmitigated emissions 750 ppm stabilisation550 ppm stabilisation

9. UDSMA USD E Climate Change Induced Challenges Changes in the hydrological cycle will affect rainfall patterns, which may result in longer and/or more frequent dry periods, alternated by periods of more intense rainfall, with negative consequences for urban and agricultural water supply, and hydropower generation. Sea-level rise may cause salt-water intrusion in aquifers, in marshlands and areas of brackish water that feed desalinization plants, and in rivermouths Rise in temperature will increase evapo- transpiration and increase urban and agricultural consumption.

10. UDSMA USD E Recent Efforts in Addressing Climate Change and Water Resources Management UNEP/GEF Country Study on CC Impact on Water Resources (1997) in Antigua & Barbuda; unable to quantify impact on water supply due to lack of climate scenario data. National Communications under the UNFCCC identified possible threats to water supply from CC. CPACC Country Policy papers identify need for detailed vulnerability assessment (VA) of water resources sector. UNEP/UNDP/CEHI-GEF project on Integrating Management of Watersheds and Coastal Areas in Caribbean SIDS. IMPACC, the successor project to CPACC, will include waters resources VA and adaptation measures..

11. UDSMA USD E GEF Block B Grant -- February 2000 to December 2001 Implementing Agencies -- UNDP and UNEP Executing Agencies -- UNEP/RCU and CEHI Steering Committee -- CARICOM, CEHI, OAS, UNDP. UNEP Participating countries: CARICOM member nations plus Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba. Assists participating countries in improving watershed and coastal zone management practices in support of sustainable development. Integrating Management of Watersheds and Coastal Areas in Caribbean SIDS

12. UDSMA USD E STATUS: Currently reviewing national reports on critical issues. Regional meeting in Jamaica (February 2001). Regional synthesis being developed. Full project brief will be submitted to the GEF for consideration in October 2001. Integrating Management of Watersheds and Coastal Areas in Caribbean SIDS

13. UDSMA USD E Apply the Precautionary Principle Reduce losses in distribution networks. Promote conservation and recycling of wastewater. Rehabilitate watersheds. Construct additional water storage capacity. Improve climate monitoring and forecasting for reservoir and intake management. Apply true water pricing, creating incentives for conservation Adaptation to CC in the Water Sector

14. UDSMA USD E Unit for Sustainable Development and Environment CONTACT INFORMATION Jan C. Vermeiren Principal Specialist Tel: (202) 458-3006 Fax: (202) 458-3560 E-mail: jvermeiren@oas.org