1. Feedback Dynamics & the Amplification of Climate Change

11. Temperature Radiative Forcing Methane Concentration Carbon Dioxide Concentration Water Vapour Concentration Other GHGs Concentration Albedo Effect Contrails & Aerosols Cloud Effects Geo- thermal energy Solar energy Spatial Sink

12. Temperature Radiative Forcing Methane Concentration Carbon Dioxide Concentration Water Vapour Concentration Other GHGs Concentration Albedo Effect Contrails & Aerosols Cloud Effects F.1 F.2 F.3F.4 F.5 F.6 F.G Geo- thermal energy Solar energy Spatial Sink F.R

13. Temperature Radiative Forcing Methane Concentration Carbon Dioxide Concentration Water Vapour Concentration Other GHGs Concentration Albedo Effect Contrails & Aerosols Cloud Effects F.1 F.2 F.3F.4 F.5 F.6 F.G Geo- thermal energy Solar energy Spatial Sink F.R

14. Temperature Radiative Forcing Methane Concentration Carbon Dioxide Concentration Water Vapour Concentration Other GHGs Concentration Albedo Effect Contrails & Aerosols Cloud Effects F.1 F.2 F.3F.4 F.5 F.6 F.G Geo- thermal energy Solar energy Spatial Sink F.R

15. Temperature Radiative Forcing Methane Concentration Carbon Dioxide Concentration Water Vapour Concentration Other GHGs Concentration Albedo Effect Contrails & Aerosols Cloud Effects F.1 F.2 F.3F.4 F.5 F.6 F.G Geo- thermal energy Solar energy Spatial Sink F.R Thermal Inertia

16. Temperature Radiative Forcing Methane Concentration Carbon Dioxide Concentration Water Vapour Concentration Other GHGs Concentration Albedo Effect Contrails & Aerosols Cloud Effects F.1 F.2 F.3F.4 F.5 F.6 F.G Geo- thermal energy Solar energy Spatial Sink F.R F.Ti Thermal Inertia

17. T h e P r o j e c t Feedback Dynamics Simulator

18. NRI NRI (t) The value of Net Radiative Imbalance at time (t) is governed by: 3: Consequential Feedback at time (t) 4: Radiative Damping Coefficient x ΔT t 1: Change in Solar Radiance from (t 0 ) to (t) 2: Anthropogenic Forcing at time (t)

19. ΔSR t RDC.ΔT t AF t CF t NRI NRI (t) The Core Structure

20. The Fundamental Equation NRI NRI (t) AF t CF t ΔSR t RDC.ΔT t =+ + -

21. Climate Sensitivity Amplification of the Anthropogenic Disturbance of the Climate System

22. Water Vapour Ozone Water Vapour Carbon Dioxide

23. Column 1 Incremental power Column 2 2 raised to power Column 3 Column 2 x 140 Semi-log (base 2) scale construction Pre-Industrial Benchmark Half Benchmark Double Benchmark

24. 0 +4 +6 +8 +2 -2 -4 -6 -8 280 560522487455424 396 369345322300261244227212198185172161150140 °C CO 2 ppm 180 440

25. 0 +4 +6 +8 +2 -2 -4 -6 -8 280 560522487455424 396 369345322300261244227212198185172161150140 °C CO 2 ppm 440 180 * * CO 2 only: amplification x 1.0 1.2 Equilibrium Temperature for CO 2 concentrations with no feedbacks °C

26. 0 +4 +6 +8 +2 -2 -4 -6 -8 280 560522487455424 396 369345322300261244227212198185172161150140 °C CO 2 ppm * * 440 180 * * Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5 CO 2 only: amplification x 1.0 1.2 3 Equilibrium Temperature for CO 2 concentrations with fast feedbacks °C

27. 0 +4 +6 +8 +2 -2 -4 -6 -8 280 560522487455424 396 369345322300261244227212198185172161150140 °C CO 2 ppm * * 440 180 * * Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5 Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75 * * CO 2 only: amplification x 1.0 1.2 3 4.5 Equilibrium Temp. for CO 2 concentrations with fast + C-cycle f-backs °C

28. 0 +4 +6 +8 +2 -2 -4 -6 -8 280 560522487455424 396 369345322300261244227212198185172161150140 °C CO 2 ppm * * 440 180 * * * * Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0 Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5 Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75 * * CO 2 only: amplification x 1.0 1.2 3 4.5 6 Equilibrium Temp. for CO 2 concentrations + fast & some slow f-backs °C

29. Earth System Sensitivity?

30. 0 +4 +6 +8 +2 -2 -4 -6 -8 280 560522487455424 396 369345322300261244227212198185172161150140 °C CO 2 ppm * * 440 180 * * * * Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0 Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5 Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75 * * CO 2 only: amplification x 1.0 1.2 3 4.5 6 7.8 Equilibrium Temp. for CO 2 concentrations with all system feedbacks °C

31. 0 +4 +6 +8 +2 -2 -4 -6 -8 280 560522487455424 396 369345322300261244227212198185172161150140 °C CO 2 ppm * * 440 180 * * * * Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0 Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5 Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75 * * * CO 2 only: amplification x 1.0 1.2 3 4.5 6 7.8 Equilibrium Temp. for CO 2 concentrations with all system feedbacks °C Ice Age Minimum point: [180, -5.0]

32. 0 +4 +6 +8 +2 -2 -4 -6 -8 280 560522487455424 396 369345322300261244227212198185172161150140 °C CO 2 ppm * * 440 180 * * * * Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0 Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5 Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75 * * * CO 2 only: amplification x 1.0 1.2 3 4.5 6 7.8 Equilibrium Temp. for CO 2 concentrations with all system feedbacks °C * Ice Age Minimum point: [180, -5.0] Pre-Industrial Benchmark: [280, -0]

33. 0 +4 +6 +8 +2 -2 -4 -6 -8 280 560522487455424 396 369345322300261244227212198185172161150140 °C CO 2 ppm * * 440 180 * * * * Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0 Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5 Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75 * * * * * CO 2 only: amplification x 1.0 1.2 3 4.5 6 7.8 Equilibrium Temp. for CO 2 concentrations with all system feedbacks °C * Ice Age Minimum point: [180, -5.0] Pre-Industrial Benchmark: [280, -0] Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5

34. 0 +4 +6 +8 +2 -2 -4 -6 -8 280 560522487455424 396 369345322300261244227212198185172161150140 °C CO 2 ppm * * 440 180 * * * * Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0 Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5 Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75 * * * * * CO 2 only: amplification x 1.0 1.2 3 4.5 6 7.8 Equilibrium Temp. for CO 2 concentrations with all system feedbacks °C * Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5 Engelbeen point: [534, 7.1] Ice Age Minimum point: [180, -5.0] * Pre-Industrial Benchmark: [280, -0]

35. 0 +4 +6 +8 +2 -2 -4 -6 -8 280 560522487455424 396 369345322300261244227212198185172161150140 °C CO 2 ppm * * 440 180 * * * * Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0 Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5 Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75 * * * * * CO 2 only: amplification x 1.0 1.2 3 4.5 6 7.8 Equilibrium Temp. for CO 2 concentrations with all system feedbacks °C * Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5 Engelbeen point: [534, 7.1] Pagani point: [360, 3.0] * Ice Age Minimum point: [180, -5.0] * Pre-Industrial Benchmark: [280, -0]

36. 0 +4 +6 +8 +2 -2 -4 -6 -8 280 560522487455424 396 369345322300261244227212198185172161150140 °C CO 2 ppm * * 440 180 * * * * Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0 Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5 Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75 * * * * * CO 2 only: amplification x 1.0 1.2 3 4.5 6 7.8 Equilibrium Temp. for CO 2 concentrations with all system feedbacks °C * Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5 Engelbeen point: [534, 7.1] Pagani point: [360, 3.0] * Ice Age Minimum point: [180, -5.0] * Pre-Industrial Benchmark: [280, -0] Mathematical Cross-Check:

37. 0 +4 +6 +8 +2 -2 -4 -6 -8 280 560522487455424 396 369345322300261244227212198185172161150140 °C CO 2 ppm * * 440 180 * * * * Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0 Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5 Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75 * * * * * CO 2 only: amplification x 1.0 1.2 3 4.5 6 7.8 Equilibrium Temp. for CO 2 concentrations with all system feedbacks °C * Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5 Engelbeen point: [534, 7.1] Pagani point: [360, 3.0] * Ice Age Minimum point: [180, -5.0] * Pre-Industrial Benchmark: [280, -0] Mathematical Cross-Check: Mathematical Cross-Check: Radiative Damping Coefficient = 3.3wm -2 °C -1

38. 0 +4 +6 +8 +2 -2 -4 -6 -8 280 560522487455424 396 369345322300261244227212198185172161150140 °C CO 2 ppm * * 440 180 * * * * Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0 Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5 Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75 * * * * * CO 2 only: amplification x 1.0 1.2 3 4.5 6 7.8 Equilibrium Temp. for CO 2 concentrations with all system feedbacks °C * Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5 Engelbeen point: [534, 7.1] Pagani point: [360, 3.0] * Ice Age Minimum point: [180, -5.0] * Pre-Industrial Benchmark: [280, -0] Mathematical Cross-Check: Mathematical Cross-Check: Radiative Damping Coefficient = 3.3wm -2 °C -1 Radiative increase (Ice-age minimum to Pre-Industrial Benchmark) = 16.5wm -2

39. 0 +4 +6 +8 +2 -2 -4 -6 -8 280 560522487455424 396 369345322300261244227212198185172161150140 °C CO 2 ppm * * 440 180 * * * * Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0 Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5 Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75 * * * * * CO 2 only: amplification x 1.0 1.2 3 4.5 6 7.8 Equilibrium Temp. for CO 2 concentrations with all system feedbacks °C * Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5 Engelbeen point: [534, 7.1] Pagani point: [360, 3.0] * Ice Age Minimum point: [180, -5.0] * Pre-Industrial Benchmark: [280, -0] Mathematical Cross-Check: Mathematical Cross-Check: Radiative Damping Coefficient = 3.3wm -2 °C -1 Radiative increase (Ice-age minimum to Pre-Industrial Benchmark) = 16.5wm -2 CO 2 contribution = 2.54wm -2

40. 0 +4 +6 +8 +2 -2 -4 -6 -8 280 560522487455424 396 369345322300261244227212198185172161150140 °C CO 2 ppm * * 440 180 * * * * Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0 Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5 Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75 * * * * * CO 2 only: amplification x 1.0 1.2 3 4.5 6 7.8 Equilibrium Temp. for CO 2 concentrations with all system feedbacks °C * Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5 Engelbeen point: [534, 7.1] Pagani point: [360, 3.0] * Ice Age Minimum point: [180, -5.0] * Pre-Industrial Benchmark: [280, -0] Mathematical Cross-Check: Mathematical Cross-Check: Radiative Damping Coefficient = 3.3wm -2 °C -1 Radiative increase (Ice-age minimum to Pre-Industrial Benchmark) = 16.5wm -2 CO 2 contribution = 2.54wm -2 Feedback contribution = 13.96wm -2

41. 0 +4 +6 +8 +2 -2 -4 -6 -8 280 560522487455424 396 369345322300261244227212198185172161150140 °C CO 2 ppm * * 440 180 * * * * Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0 Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5 Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75 * * * * * CO 2 only: amplification x 1.0 1.2 3 4.5 6 7.8 Equilibrium Temp. for CO 2 concentrations with all system feedbacks °C * Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5 Engelbeen point: [534, 7.1] Pagani point: [360, 3.0] * Ice Age Minimum point: [180, -5.0] * Pre-Industrial Benchmark: [280, -0] Mathematical Cross-Check: Mathematical Cross-Check: Radiative Damping Coefficient = 3.3wm -2 °C -1 Radiative increase (Ice-age minimum to Pre-Industrial Benchmark) = 16.5wm -2 CO 2 contribution = 2.54wm -2 Feedback contribution = 13.96wm -2 Amplification Factor = 6.49 Hence Amplification Factor = 6.49

42. 0 +4 +6 +8 +2 -2 -4 -6 -8 280 560522487455424 396 369345322300261244227212198185172161150140 °C CO 2 ppm * * 440 180 * * * * Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0 Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5 Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75 * * * * * CO 2 only: amplification x 1.0 1.2 3 4.5 6 7.8 Equilibrium Temp. for CO 2 concentrations with all system feedbacks °C * Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5 Engelbeen point: [534, 7.1] Pagani point: [360, 3.0] * Ice Age Minimum point: [180, -5.0] * Pre-Industrial Benchmark: [280, -0] Mathematical Cross-Check: Mathematical Cross-Check: Radiative Damping Coefficient = 3.3wm -2 °C -1 Radiative increase (Ice-age minimum to Pre-Industrial Benchmark) = 16.5wm -2 CO 2 contribution = 2.54wm -2 Feedback contribution = 13.96wm -2 Amplification Factor = 6.49 Sensitivity = 7.79 °C Hence Amplification Factor = 6.49 Sensitivity = 7.79 °C

43. 0 +4 +6 +8 +2 -2 -4 -6 -8 280 560522487455424 396 369345322300261244227212198185172161150140 °C CO 2 ppm * * 440 180 * * * * Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0 Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5 Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75 * * * * * 350 CO 2 only: amplification x 1.0 1.2 3 4.5 6 7.8 Equilibrium Temp. for CO 2 concentrations with all system feedbacks °C Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5

44. 0 +4 +6 +8 +2 -2 -4 -6 -8 280 560522487455424 396 369345322300261244227212198185172161150140 °C CO 2 ppm * * 440 180 * * * * Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0 Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5 Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75 * * * * * 350 CO 2 only: amplification x 1.0 1.2 3 4.5 6 7.8 Equilibrium Temp. for CO 2 concentrations with all system feedbacks °C Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5 Correlations and Consequences

45. 0 +4 +6 +8 +2 -2 -4 -6 -8 280 560522487455424 396 369345322300261244227212198185172161150140 °C CO 2 ppm * * 440 180 * * * * Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0 Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5 Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75 * * * * * 350 CO 2 only: amplification x 1.0 1.2 3 4.5 6 7.8 Equilibrium Temp. for CO 2 concentrations with all system feedbacks °C Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5

46. 690 °C CO 2 ppm 0 4 6 8 2 12 14 16 10 1120 15.6 12 9 6 2.4 °C 600 643739792849910975 1045 Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0 Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5 Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75 CO 2 only: amplification x 1.0 Equilibrium Temperatures up to second doubling of CO 2 concentrations 690 Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5

47. 0 +4 +6 +8 +2 -2 -4 -6 -8 280 560522487455424 396 369345322300261244227212198185172161150140 °C CO 2 ppm * * 440 180 * * * * Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0 Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5 Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75 * * * * * 350 NB. All lines refer to change that is slow and close to equilibrium Those conditions no longer apply CO 2 only: amplification x 1.0 1.2 3 4.5 6 7.8 Equilibrium Temp. for CO 2 concentrations with all system feedbacks °C Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5