1. NACLIM annual meeting - 15/10/2014 1 NACLIM Annual Meeting 2014 (Berlin) WP4.2 - Extraction of city morphology indicators for urban climate modeling: a case study for Antwerp, Berlin and Almada Bart Thomas (GIM)

2. Impact on urban societies NACLIM annual meeting - 15/10/20142 UHI predictionCMIP5UrbClimsocio-economic Urban morphology Observations Heat stress exposure maps City data

3. Use case cities Different morphologies  density, city layout, vegetation abundance, topography, proximity to the sea, etc. Almada –Mediterranean –Köppen Csa/Csb Antwerp –Maritime temperate –Köppen Cfb Berlin –Warm-Summer Continental –Köppen Dfb NACLIM annual meeting - 15/10/20143

4. Urban morphology indices Relevant land surface parameters –PAI: planar area index –FAI: frontal area index –AVG_H: average building height –STD_H: variation building height –SVF: sky view factor –F_VEG: fraction vegetation cover –LULC: land use / cover (incl. vegetation) type –F_ULU: fraction urban land use Calculated on a spatial grid PAI - planar area index = the ratio of the plane area occupied by buildings to the total ground area FAI - frontal area index = the ratio of the frontal area (i.e. area of buildings exposed to a given wind direction) of buildings to the total ground area (averaged over all wind sectors) NACLIM annual meeting - 15/10/20144

5. Source data 3D City models –Individual buildings  PAI –Building blocks  FAI –Conversion to 2D + attributes –Including / excluding roofs NACLIM annual meeting - 15/10/20145 3D city model (input) Blocks (output, no roofs)Buildings (output, no roofs)

6. Methodology Reference dataset  degree of soil sealing (EEA) Determine area of interest (AOI) of 3D city model Calculations on the analysis grid –Determine optimal spatial resolution  reduce scatter & local effects  1km –Calculate index (e.g. PAI, FAI, …) per grid cell (analysis grid) –Calculate average EEA SSL per grid cell (analysis grid) –Scatter plot & regression between index and average EEA SSL for all grid cells inside AOI (analysis grid) Calculations on the urban climate model grid –Finer resolution than analysis grid  250m –Typically larger extent than AOI 3D city model –Exact calculation of index inside AOI –Extrapolation outside AOI using relationships with EEA SSL Attention for discontinuities on the boundary of the AOI NACLIM annual meeting - 15/10/20146

7. Resolution analysis grid Literature (Bohnenstengel et al., 2011) Reduce scatter due to local effects Resolution EEA SSL (100m) Resolution model grid Stable relationships Sample size (no. grid cells) Example: PAI (Berlin) –Coarser resolution –Similar fit –Reduced scatter –Increasing R 2  Choice = 1km NACLIM annual meeting - 15/10/20147 100m (R 2 lin = 0,54) 200m (R 2 lin = 0,66) 1km (R 2 lin = 0,81) 500m (R 2 lin = 0,76)

8. Urban morphology indices Antwerp –inside AOI  exact calculation –outside AOI  extrapolation (except LULC) NACLIM annual meeting - 15/10/20148 PAIFAIH_AVGH_STD SVFLULCF_VEGF_ULU

9. Urban morphology indices Almada –inside AOI  exact calculation –outside AOI  extrapolation (except LULC) NACLIM annual meeting - 15/10/20149 PAIFAIH_AVGH_STD SVFLULCF_VEGF_ULU

10. Urban morphology indices Berlin –inside AOI  exact calculation –outside AOI  extrapolation (except LULC) NACLIM annual meeting - 15/10/201410 PAIFAIH_AVGH_STD SVFLULCF_VEGF_ULU

11. Planar area index (PAI) PAI versus average EEA SSL (1km analysis grid) NACLIM annual meeting - 15/10/201411

12. Planar area index (PAI) PAI (all cities, 250m model grid) NACLIM annual meeting - 15/10/201412

13. Frontal area index (FAI) FAI versus average EEA SSL (1km analysis grid) NACLIM annual meeting - 15/10/201413

14. Frontal area index (FAI) FAI (all cities, 250m model grid) NACLIM annual meeting - 15/10/201414

15. Transferability equations PAI & FAI versus average EEA SSL (all cities, linear & quadratic fit) NACLIM annual meeting - 15/10/201415

16. Conclusions Promising results to extract urban morphology indices from generic European datasets in absence of detailed city models Modelling community  access to relevant model input parameters for all cities in Europe Flexible approach –Exact calculation when 3D city models are available  calibration on local data –Extrapolation / estimation from average EEA SSL for other regions Transferability relationships depends on urban morphology index Possibility for downscaling urban climate simulations to higher resolution NACLIM annual meeting - 15/10/201416

17. Future / ongoing work Extraction urban morphology indices –Other scenarios per city (e.g. based on existing urban master plans) –Scenarios to be confirmed during 4 th end-user meeting (16-Oct) –Other explaining variables (e.g. population layer EEA)? Heat stress exposure mapping –Process UrbClim model output Time scales: present 1986-2005, near future 2026-2045, far future 2081-2100 Various scenarios / themes Various cities –Identification variables linked to heat stress UHI effect Number of heat waves / heat wave days Heat wave duration Heat wave intensity –Combine results with socio-economic data  focus on: Population (age class) Vulnerable institutions (schools, hospitals, rest homes, child/day care facilities) –Relevant results to be consolidated during 4 th end-user meeting Collaboration NACLIM – EUPORIAS –Additional use case city? –Demonstrate UHI mapping approach NACLIM annual meeting - 15/10/201417

18. Exposure mapping NACLIM annual meeting - 15/10/201418

19. Exposure mapping NACLIM annual meeting - 15/10/201419

20. Exposure mapping NACLIM annual meeting - 15/10/201420

21. Exposure mapping NACLIM annual meeting - 15/10/201421

22. Exposure mapping NACLIM annual meeting - 15/10/201422

23. Exposure mapping NACLIM annual meeting - 15/10/201423

24. Questions? NACLIM annual meeting - 15/10/201424 Don’t hesitate to ask us! GIM nv/sa Researchpark Haasrode 1505 Interleuvenlaan 5 B-3001 Leuven (Heverlee) tel: +32 16 40 30 39 fax: +32 16 40 69 39 e-mail: info@gim.beinfo@gim.be website: www.gim.be

25. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union 7th Framework Programme (FP7 2007-2013), under grant agreement n.308299 NACLIM www.naclim.euwww.naclim.eu NACLIM annual meeting - 15/10/201425