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Published byLeo Knight Modified over 8 years ago
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VoIP AN INVESTOR’S POINT OF VIEW * A Cautionary Look *
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VoIP represents one of the most significant investment opportunities today….. Large global markets Hugely disruptive technologies Significant cost advantages Incredible feature offerings High-margin business opportunities More…
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But … also presents significant investment challenges Large, entrenched customers own all the customers Consumer point of view Multiple cell phones (turning off land lines every day – doesn’t bode too well for home replacement offerings). “Tethered” pc-calling is of limited appeal No “sex appeal” to VoIP … what is that? Highly limited CPE today …How am I supposed to use that?
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Enterprise point of view Security Current Investment Do features really work? Long sales lead time
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In the public markets … a growing bubble An unscientific analysis shows a basket of “VoIP” company’s statistics: Average stock price appreciation of 1446 % over the last year (and most companies are well off their “highs”) Average market capitalization of 12.7 x sales! Most companies have limited cash none are profitable Elusive business models fuel “maybe they’ve got the answer” speculation “Reverse mergers” starting to show up with otherwise unrelated companies now proclaiming they’re launching VoIP businesses (recall all the companies in the Internet bubble era adding “dotcom” to their names)
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Adoption is real, but measured (the BAD news) Forrester Survey 13% of consumers are interested or very interested in VoIP Only 43% have ever heard of the technology 3% of consumers are using VoIP Consumers would be most willing to consider VoIP from their local phone companies
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Adoption is real, but measured (the GOOD news) 90% of existing VoIP users are satisfied with pricing 80% are satisfied with features 70% are satisfies with voice quality and billing Delivering calls VoIP is better Negative industry commentary exists with every “disruptive” force Great companies and business models will emerge
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What VoIP Investors should do Don’t believe the hype …. it’s a sequel! We have all been here before Private & Public Company “stories” will get hot Remember: Excite @ home - bankrupt Webvan - bankrupt Etoys -bankrupt Pets.com-bankrupt Many others
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What VoIP Investors should do (cont) Beware new, ever-evolving metrics Remember: Today we have: We don’t yet have: Eyeballs attempted calls profits Unique users completed callscash flow Members downloadssustainable growth Pageviews quality index Downloads registrations Clicks others
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What VoIP Investors should (cont) The business of VoIP is still evolving Profits and cash flow will come – it’s a huge opportunity Remember: Ebay- mkt cap: $52 Billion Yahoo- mkt cap: $48 Billion Amazon- mkt cap: $14 Billion The business will have arrived when we stop hearing about VoIP and start learning about applications and companies
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What VoIP Investors should (cont) Know the management Who are they? What have they done before? How much of their own money is invested? Who has invested with them? Dig deep Don’t believe everything you read on the internet Start-ups (private or public) face tremendous hurdles and roadblocks. Experienced management can navigate difficult terrain
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What VoIP Investors should (cont) Know the competition The competition is not other “start-ups” The competition has names like BellSouth, SBC, Verizon, BT and others – they have everything to lose and own all the customers The competition also has all the marketing money! Nimble companies create “buzz” and word of mouth to grow Invest for the longer term
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Summary VoIP is and will continue to be a huge opportunity Growing great businesses around the technology will not be easy Competition is large and entrenched Experienced management means everything Thank you!
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