1. Challenges to Manage the Risk of Water Scarcity and Climate Change in the Mediterranean Presented by: Yasmine Fouad Faculty of Economics and Political Science Cairo University Euro med PHD Program2010/2011

2. Outline of the presentation  purpose of the paper  Environmental and social pressures  Climate Change impact on water resources  Current adaptation strategies  Framework for risk for water scarcity  Conclusions  Important reflection on direct relation between water and security

3. Purpose of the paper The paper aims to: 1.present the challenges facing the water scarcity in the Mediterranean through analysis of the environmental and social pressures including climate change. 2.evaluate the adaptation strategies to cope with water scarcity 3.Proposes a framework for managing risk of water scarcity based on preparedness rather than a crises approach

4. Degradation of ecosystem QualityQuantity Water

5. Pressures on water resources in the Mediterranean (quantity ) Environmental pressures Social pressures Demand is more than the available water resources In the last 20 years, drought in the Med. Region is 5 times than in the US causing drastic economic damages little data to forecast future scenarios Different irrigation system and technologies from southern and eastern Mediterranean Increase of economic and social activities with the increase demand for tourism and ecosystem This demand increases due to population growth, upgraded living standards, use of water consuming technologies, increase in tourist population in some countries 3 times higher than the local demand as in Spain, France and Greece

6. Water Quality  Water pollution has become a high priority due to the misuse of both fresh water and groundwater.  The problems of the ground water are due to a) pressures on aquifers b) excessive pumping c) intense use of agro chemicals d) use of fertilizers and pesticides e) drought episode

7. Causes  Increase in temperature  Increase in likelihood of droughts Effects  Influence the availability of water resources  Rise in sea level rise in north Africa especially in Delta/ Egypt Mediterranean region will become increasingly unstable and vulnerable

8. Current Adaptation Strategies Drought management  Drought is on of the main problems that will affect the quantity of water. Both water scarcity and drought have multidimensional impact on the society  The main challenges in the Mediterranean is the weak cooperation among institutions regardless their efforts to develop legislation with different level of integration for overall water management as an example the development of European water framework directive that still suffers from coordination at the transboundary basins  Other challenges include : lack of local drought management plans, water reuse and desalinization technologies, difficulty in quantifying real public participation in water management for both surface and ground water.

9. Strategic Resources and Technology  Technology for the use of the ground water has been developed 50 years ago to satisfy the demand of irrigation in arid and semi arid countries.  Pumping of the ground water causes overexploitation problems with the negative environmental, social and economic impact.  The main challenges of ground water is to maintain its social and strategic value.  Dependency on ground water to face scarcity situations of moderate to severe level Current Adaptation Strategies

10. A Framework for Risk Management of Water Scarcity Components of the framework DataInstitutionsstakeholdersValidationRiskMeasures

11. Conclusion  The challenges of the water resources in the Mediterranean are increasing due to the weak coordination mechanism among institutions and countries, current and future impact of climate change, increase of drought, misuse of surface and ground water with the impact of the human and social activities on the quality of water  Proposed interventions include : - Strengthen the regional cooperation among countries and better understanding of the resources dynamics - Better monitoring and early warning systems to respond directly to changes taking place - Integrate drought management measures in development plans - Above all raise awareness of the governments on the interlink ages factors of the water scarcity

12. Important Reflection on direct relations between water and security

13. Conceptualising conflict and cooperation Conflict Intensity Frame by Zeitoun & Warner (2006) Source: Goulden Marisa, 2006 Tyndall Centre and Overseas Development Group, UEA,

14. Water Event Intensity Scale (Yoffee et al. 2003) BAR SCALE EVENT DESCRIPTIONBAR SCALE EVENT DESCRIPTION 7 Voluntary unification into one nation 0 Neutral or non-significant acts for the inter-nation situation 6 International Freshwater Treaty; Major strategic alliance Mild verbal expressions displaying discord in interaction 5 Military economic or strategic support: -2 Strong verbal expressions displaying hostility 4 Non-military economic, technological or industrial agreement -3 Diplomatic-economic hostile actions 3 Cultural or scientific agreement or support (non-strategic): -4 Political-military hostile actions 2 Official verbal support of goals, values, or regime -5 Small scale military acts 1 Minor official exchanges, talks or policy expressions-mild verbal support -6 Extensive War Acts causing deaths, dislocation or high strategic cost 0 Neutral or non-significant acts for the inter-nation situation -7 Formal Declaration of War Increasing cooperation Increasing conflict http://www.transboundarywaters.orst.edu/projects/events/bar_scale.html

15. Thank you for your kind attention