1. Climate Change and Fossil Fuels Will running out of oil help mitigate global warming?

2. Outline Climate change signals Climate models and projections Peak oil (and natural gas and coal) Will fossil fuel limits have an effect? Conclusion

3. The Past

4. Mean global temperature – single number version

5. Mean global temperature - distribution

6. Energy Balance “Earth’s Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications” James Hansen, et al. Science 3 June 2005 308: 1431-1435 – Current imbalance of 0.85±0.15 W/m 2

7. Total anthropogenic carbon emissions

8. CO 2 concentration

9. Methane concentrations

10. Temperature change - natural or anthropogenic?

11. The Future

12. Model scenario indicators

13. Climate “Forcings”

14. Model projections

17. Energy and fossil fuels

18. World energy use Coal Nuclear Oil (34.9%) Gas Hydro Biomass Geothermal, wind, solar, etc. RE (13.4%) Total ~400 Quadrillion Btu World: ~84 million barrels/day; US: ~21 million barrels/day

19. US oil production

20. US production peak Approximately 30 out of 40 largest producers have crossed a peak

21. Peak models – world production USGS (BP + 50%) BP reserves

22. Discovery vs. consumption

23. Discovery and production

24. US Production and Logistic Model = kQ(1 – Q/Q ∞ ) dQ dt

25. Modified Logistic Q total (Gb) = kQ(1 – Q/Q ∞ ) dQ dt Time-dependent

26. World Reserves and R/P

27. Production and R/P Ratio

29. EIA Predictions The U.S. DOE/EIA's International Energy Outlook 2001 (IEO2001), stated the following concerning future U.K. oil production: "The United Kingdom is expected to produce about 3.1 million barrels/day by the middle of this decade (~2005), followed by a decline to 2.7 MMb/d by 2020.“ 1999: 2.909 MMbd;2000: 2.667; 2001: 2.476; 2002: 2.463; 2003: 2.257 MMbd2004: 2.028; 2005: 1.808 MMbd In the IEO2003, the U.S. DOE/EIA stated the following concerning Norwegian and North Sea oil production: "The decline in North Sea production is slowed as a result of substantial improvement in field recovery rates. Production from Norway, Western Europe's largest producer, is expected to peak at about 3.4 million barrels per day in 2004 and then gradually decline to about 2.5 million barrels per day by the end of the forecast period (2025) with the maturing of some of its larger and older fields.“ 2001: 3.4 MMbd; 2002: 3333; 2003: 3264; 2004: 3188; 2005: 2969

30. Most Recent Predictions (June 2006) In the IEO2006 reference case, … (p)roduction from Norway … is expected to peak at about 3.6 MMbd in 2006 and then decline gradually to about 2.5 MMbd in 2030... The UK sector is expected to produce about 2.2 MMbd in 2010, followed by a decline to 1.4 MMbd in 2030.

31. Natural Gas National Petroleum Council (1998) US Prod.Import from Canada 1998550 Bcm 90 Bcm 2010725 Bcm 120 Bcm 2015780 Bcm Now the numbers are more like … 1998550 Bcm 2003 550 Bcm 2004540 Bcm 2005 526 Bcm And Canada peaked in 2002 at 188 Bcm and expects a decline of 2.5% per year

32. Natural Gas in the US EIA Statistical Review of World Energy data (per day)

33. U.S. Coal Production

34. http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/coal.html Energy Information Administration – Annual Energy Review 2005 Lower quality coal

35. Tar Sands Alberta, Canada Effectively a mining operation Current production of 10 6 bbl/day of synthetic crude oil Estimate ~3 MMb/d in 10 years, 5 MMb/d in 25 years Needs large amounts of NG and water, plus hazardous waste disposal EROEI is perhaps 2:1 – 8:1 The plan now is to expand capacity from the present 155,000 barrels a day to more than 500,000 by 2015. This will require many billions of dollars of further investment in mining and upgrading facilities. Malcolm Brinded Executive Director Exploration & Production, Royal Dutch Shell plc http://www.shell.com/static/media-en/downloads/speeches/mb_oxford_energy_seminar.pdf

36. Oil Shale Western U.S. Possibly 800 billion barrels !! A mined product Techniques proven in principle, but not at large scale Only profitable with oil >$75/bbl High growth, optimum scenario – 10 6 bbl/d in 2025 or later. EROEI is estimated at ~2:1 – 4:1 Rand Corp. report for US DOE, Nat’l. Energy Tech. Lab.

37. Ethanol from Corn Yield for ethanol from corn is ~70 GJ/ha (@9000 kg corn /ha) Automobile + light truck transportation uses ~1.7×10 10 GJ/a Quick calculation: we would need 2.4×10 8 ha of land Currently we have in the US 1.2×10 8 ha of cropland total But … the key point missing is the energy input. Ethanol from industrial-scale corn farming is barely an energy break-even. Energy return on Energy invested (EROEI) ratio is ~1. GHG emissions are only slightly less than for conventional gasoline. D.Pimentel and T. Patzek, Natural Resources Research 14, 65-76 (2005) Shapouri - USDA “The Energy Balance of Corn Ethanol: An Update” Ag. Econ. Report 813 Farrell et al., Science 311, 506-508 (2006)

38. Fossil fuels and CO 2

39. SRES - Oil

41. SRES - NG

42. Oil and CO 2

43. Natural Gas and CO 2

44. Coal and CO 2

45. Total CO 2 – Middle Scenarios

46. Model output – CO 2 concentration 2100

47. Model output - Temperature

48. Peak fossil fuel scenario

49. Stop burning fossil fuels? “The Climate Change Commitment” T. M. L. Wigley 18 MARCH 2005 VOL 307 SCIENCE

50. Keep burning at same rate? “The Climate Change Commitment” T. M. L. Wigley 18 MARCH 2005 VOL 307 SCIENCE

51. Will climate change mitigation be costly? Some coupled economic-climate models show the costs to be minimal Stern report – not acting now will be extremely costly U.S. businesses that have taken action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have found positive bottom-line results