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Air quality real-time forecast of PM 2.5 in Hangzhou metropolitan city with the WRF-CMAQ and WRF/Chem systems: model development and evaluation Shaocai.

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Presentation on theme: "Air quality real-time forecast of PM 2.5 in Hangzhou metropolitan city with the WRF-CMAQ and WRF/Chem systems: model development and evaluation Shaocai."— Presentation transcript:

1 Air quality real-time forecast of PM 2.5 in Hangzhou metropolitan city with the WRF-CMAQ and WRF/Chem systems: model development and evaluation Shaocai Yu 1, Pengfei Li 1, Renchang Yan 1, Liqiang Wang 1, Si Wang 1, Weiping Liu 1, Yang Zhang 2, David Wong 3, Kiran Alapaty 3, Jon Pleim 3 and Rohit Mathur 3 1 Research Center for Air Pollution and Health, College of Environmental and Natural Resources, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310058, P.R. China. 2 Air Quality Forecasting Lab, Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, USA 3 Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division, NERL, U.S. EPA, RTP, NC 27711, USA

2 Air pollution and heavy haze have become China’s biggest environmental problem Introduction (Motivation) Number of haze days in 2013 are the highest since 1960 2012 Beijing Shanghai Wenzhou Fuzhou NanjingChongqing Xian NanchangGuangzhou Taiyuan Tianjin Chengdu Hazy days in 2012: 103-225 day Hangzhou

3 Hangzhou metropolitan city Introduction (background)  With 2,200 years history, Hangzhou is  one of the seven ancient cities in China  one of the most renowned and prosperous cities in China  due to its beautiful natural sceneries: West Lake  a registered population of 8.7 million  the rivers, lakes, ponds, and reservoirs account for 8 % of the city  Hazy days in 2014:154 days, major pollutant is PM 2.5  annul mean PM 2.5 conc.: 64  g m -3

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6 Meteorological Model WRF modeling System:  x=36, 12 km, 4km 29 layers Land-Surface: PX LSM PBL: ACM2 Cloud Physics: Morrison Cumulus: Kain-Fritsch, not for 4km Shortwave: RRTMg, or CAM Longwave: RRTMg, or CAM Coupler Chemical Transport Model CMAQ Modeling System: Photochemistry: CB05 59 organic and inorganic species, 156 chemical reactions Aerosol module: AE6 3 lognormal modes, organic and inorganic Emission: SMOKE In-line emission for biogenic species AQPREP Prepares virtual CMAQ compatible input met. files CMAQ-mixactivate: cloud drop, ice number conc. Direct forcing: Aerosol size, composition, conc. Two-way Coupled WRF-CMAQ Modeling System (Interaction and Feedback) (Yu et al., 2014) Model Description ( Configuration )

7 1 。 1 。， WRF-CMAQ 空气质量模式研究中国东部区域大气污 染和雾霾演变规律及其动态预警预报 Meteorological Model WRF modeling System:  x=36, 12 km, 4km 29 layers Land-Surface: NOAH PBL: YSU Cloud Physics: Morrison Cumulus: Grell 3D, not for 4km Shortwave: RRTMg, Longwave: RRTMg, Chemical Transport Model CHEM Modeling System: Photochemistry: CB05 59 organic and inorganic species, 156 chemical reactions Aerosol module: MADE/VBS 3 lognormal modes, organic and inorganic Emission: MEGAN In-line emission for biogenic species Online coupled WRF-Chem Modeling System (Interaction and feedback) (Wang et al., 2014) Model Description ( Configuration )

8  China WRF-CMAQ simulations and emissions WPS runs: lateral boundary conditions are derived from the Global Forecast System (GFS) model data  Emissions over the eastern Asia:  Anthropogenic: Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR): HTAP V2 (0.1 0* 0.1 0 )  Biogenic VOC: Generated by MEGAN Model (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature)

9 Model Description (Configuration)  Emission inventory and processes  Anthropogenic emission  Emission Inventory Discription The HTAP_V2 dataset provided consists of 0.1degx0.1deg gridmaps (left bottom corner centered) of CO, SO 2 NOx, NMVOC, NH 3, PM 10, PM 2.5, BC and OC. HTAP_V2 uses nationally reported emissions combined with regional scientific inventories in the format of sector-specific gridmaps with a joint effort from US-EPA, the MICS-Asia group, EMEP/TNO, the REAS and the EDGAR group to serve in the first place the scientific community for hemispheric transport of air pollution.

10 Model Description (Configuration)  Emission inventory and processes HTAP_V2 emission inventory  Scope: Global scale  Resolution: 0.1degx0.1deg Focal regionsContribution North America EPA, George Pouliot for US AQMEII data Europe: TNO, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Martijn Schaap Asia: MICS: Qiang Zhang, Jung-Hun Woo, Toshimasa Ohara Africa:Cathy Liousse Gapfilling: EDGAR4.2 Greet Janssens- Maenhout

11 Model Description (Configuration)  Emission inventory and processes  Base Year: 2010 annual and monthly emission files  8 Emission sectors: SectorsDescription htap_1 AirInternational aviation htap_2 ShipsInland Waterways and Marine Shipping htap_3 PowerElectricity generation htap_4 IndustryEnergy production other than electricity generation, Industrial processes, solvent production and application htap_5 TransportGround transport htap_6 ResidentialBuildings heating, cooling, equipment, and waste disposal or incineration htap_8 AgricultureAgriculture and agricultural waste burning

12  Model domain 36 km domain over eastern Asia 12 km domain over eastern China 4 km domain over Zhejiang (Hangzhou) region Hangzhou

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14  Results (Preliminary) (second day) Model forecast results over the three domain (9/22/2015, 13:00 LT) WRF-CMAQWRF-Chem 36 km domain over eastern Asia

15  Results (Preliminary) Model forecast results over the three domains (9/22/2015, 13:00 LT) WRF-CMAQ WRF-Chem 12 km domain over eastern China 4 km domain over Zhejiang (Hangzhou) region

16 WRF-CMAQ WRF-Chem  Results (Preliminary for PM 2.5 ) Comparisons of hourly obs (means at 10 sites in Hangzhou) and models

17 WRF-CMAQ WRF-Chem  Results (Preliminary for O 3 ) Comparisons of hourly obs (means at 10 sites) and models (three domains)

18 WRF-CMAQ WRF-Chem  Results (Preliminary for SO 2 ) Comparisons of hourly obs (means at 10 sites) and models (three domains)

19 WRF-CMAQ WRF-Chem  Results (Preliminary for NO 2 ) Comparisons of hourly obs (means at 10 sites) and models (three domains)

20 WRF-CMAQ WRF-Chem  Results (Preliminary for CO) Comparisons of hourly obs (means at 10 sites) and models (three domains)

21 NMB (%) WRF-CMAQ WRF-Chem domainD04D12D36D04D12D36 PM 2.5 -0.830.7-14.666.969.045.6 O3O3 55.860.730.317.315.424.2 SO 2 89.8127.962.4134.5137.695.0 NO 2 -30.7-60.2-39.7130.3132.158.1 CO-36.9-37.8-50.0309.0315.0209.4  Results (Preliminary model performance summary (NMB (%)) Comparisons of hourly obs (means at 10 sites) and models (three domains)

22 Contacts: Brian K. Eder email: eder@hpcc.epa.gov www.arl.noaa.gov/ www.epa.gov/asmdnerl

23  Results (Emission inventory input to model) SO2 PSO4 NO2 CO

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