1. 1 Next Generation of NR Michiko Masutani January 2009

2. 2 Joint OSSE will be concentrate on existing T511 and T799 Nature run produced by ECMWF for next few years. There are several global meso scale models are being developed. Atmosphere and Ocean coupled model is becoming mature Climate model with more than 20 aerosols and chemical are also available Joint OSSE will keep posting making good nature as one of the goals for development of global models.

3. 3 Good hurricanes and storms in T799 run even for meso scale OSSEs. Before producing regional NR, it is highly recommended to perform regional OSSEs (40-60km resolution) with T799 global NR. Mesoscale NR must be another Joint OSSE NR which will be shared within Joint OSSE Regional OSSEs are affordable to Universities. Simulation of observations may be difficult. Regional OSSE must present evaluation of effect of lateral boundary conditions. Integrations of meso/regional OSSE effort into Joint OSSEs Note: There are global meso-scale model (NICAM, GFDL, ESRL) and relatively low resolution regional OSSEs are considered. Strong demands for high resolution NR

4. 4 Potential candidates for the next Nature Runs

5. 5 ECMWF Plans to make T1279 model operational in 2009. The vertical resolution would remain unchanged (=L91). A non-hydrostatic version of the IFS dynamics has been developed by Meteo-France and partners. This is not envisaged for operations until after 2018 (10 years from now). ECMWF plans are to change from L91 to ~L150 a year or so after the horizontal resolution change. So that is currently planned for 2010. Reference: Presentation by Thomas Jung http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/JointOSSEs/record/NR_ diag/Jung_ECMWF_Nature_Run_TJ.ppt

6. 6 Realistic MJO From Fig 15 in Bechtold et al. (TM556) T159 horizontal resolution (80km) 91 level Observed

7. 7 NICAM Icosahedral atmospheric model Non hydrostatic, cloud resolving model 14 km model with limited coupling with ocean can be run for several month (one year?) once the new computer at Earth Simulator become available. (resource to run 3.5km model for only one week) Realistic MJO in 14km model. 500hPa height forecast skill may not be so good. Out put can be process to a regular lat lon grid. Vertical coordinate number of levels ??

8. 8 6 day forecast from NCEP analysis 26DEC2006 21:00 JST 3.5 Km model Observed NICAM

9. 9 ESRL FIM (FIMS) FvGCM Icosahedral grid with NCEP physics Hydrostatic version Vertical coordinate: Number of levels: 64 Hybrid vertical coordinate hybrid sigma-theta coordinate with low level sigma pressure configured similar to those of GFS 30 km resolution FIMS is running forecast in real time For OSSE nature run, it is possible to run FIM with 15 km resolution. Targeting a 4km resolution model in 2010 NIM: non hydrostatic version of FIM Resolution: targeting at a few km but it heavily depends on the computer resource Number of levels: 100 height coordinate (?). Time line of development: uncertain mainly due to the computer resource 2-D model tested

10. 10 NASA-GFDL model (GEOS-6 ) Target 2011 Dynamical core - FvGCM, cubic globe non hydrostatic Vertical coordinate and number of levels ?? Current version uses NCEP physics (Clouds are parameterized) 1km 32 level is being tested, C360 (25km) produce 70m/s in hurricane One year run with 30km AMIP type run is possible. With more resource one year run with 7km-12km resolution is possible If more resource availableone year run with Non-hydrostatic global cloud-resolving run at 4-5 km

11. 11 GFDL Atmospheric model with coupled chemistry and ocean(CM3) All chemistry in CRTM are included 1 degree 48 level model will be mature in 2012 72 levels require retuning of physics. There is a demand from IPCC for 0.5 degree model. Further detail plan become clearer over the next 12 month. NCEP CFS Ocean Atmosphere coupled model Forecast skill by T386 (40km) coupled model is not less than the uncoupled operational model. Weaker but realistic MJO and ENSO in T62 coupled model For the detail: pan_convection_2008_08.ppt Posted at http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/JointOSSEs/record/2008/Nov08/

12. 12 NCEP CFS coupled model with T62 resolution Realistic MJO V850 at 15N Observed (GDAS) V850 at 15N Coupled CFS T62

13. 13 A global version of NCEP's Eta model has been developed at the University of Maryland, using a framework of optionally quasi-uniform cubic and octagonal grids (Rancic and Zhang 2006). There is a new NSF sponsored project at the University of Maryland with the goal to further advance the developed quasi-uniform grid framework and combine it with the non-hydrostatic NCEP's NMM Rancic et al. (1996); Purser and Rancic (1998; 1989) introduced numerically generated quasi-uniform, quasi-conformal gridding of the sphere Global version of NCEP NMM

14. 14 NCAR/MMM New global weather and climate model building from experience with the WRF and CCSM models. Nonhydrostatic cloud resolving model Horizontal grid: Icosahedral hexagonal grid with C-grid staggering Capability for selective mesh refinement Finite volume numerics with good conservation properties Intended to be able to run at convection-permitting resolution (1-2 km grids) for at least some experimental simulations. At present, a number of technical issues associated with this approach have been resolved and the numerics is being implemented on the sphere. It will be a couple years before we have a fully functioning system capable of simulating these high-resolution Nature Runs.

15. 15 ModelNow20092010201120122013 Global40km 25km 18km 50 levels70 levels 100 levels N At Eur12km 50 levels70 levels 100 levels UK4km1.5km ~0.8km 50 levels70 levels 100 levels Specialist 0.25km 100 levels Planned NWP model changes at UK Met Office

16. 16 Intercomparison of African easterly wave representation in operational numerical weather prediction models Gareth Berry and Chris Thorncroft http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/seminars/presentations/2008/Gareth_emc_081118.pdf TC forecast evaluation at UK Met Office http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone/verification.html Go to the final table for the seasonal mean track errors. Attached isthe northern hemisphere 5-year running mean chart up to the current date. It is showing a continued long term downward trend in errors. As for AEWs, our model is good at analysing them and propagating those that are analysed, but is less good at developing new waves during the forecast. This is one conclusion from a joint paper with ECMWF, NCEP,Meteo France and SUNY, which has just gone for review to Weather and Forecasting. This shouldn't have any impact on tropical cyclone predictions in the Atlantic, since once a storm forms it is initialised in the model and it is then more down to the model's interaction of the initialised vortex with the synoptic scale environment which determines the quality of the forecast track. (UK Net Office) Tropics and hurricanes

17. 17 NOAA/AOML Aiming for 1km hurricane model. HWRF model working close with ESRL, MMM and NCEP. http://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/projects/hrs/wiki High resolution model at by Earth Simulator center in Japan 2-10km Global model 100 levels 100m-2km regional model Physics are rather simple

18. 18 Requirement for the meso scale (can be global) Nature run - sample suggestions- ♦Could be either global or regional. ♦The NWP model must have good forecast skill Great visualization does not guarantee good forecast skill. However, standard good forecast score does not imply good Nature run. We need to work on variation metrics for a good Nature run. ♦Must have a good TC or a severe storm in the nature run period. ♦Sufficient number of vertical levels. Minimum 91 levels. ♦Some degree of coupling with ocean and land surface ♦If it is regional, the effect of the lateral boundary must be evaluated. ♦ A list of verification method must be produced by Joint OSSE. ♦ Need NR to be shared within Joint OSSE ♦ User friendly archive ♦ At least three month is required for OSSE