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NOAA/Climate Prediction Center Outlooks for Spring-Summer, 2010 Ed O’Lenic Chief, Operations Branch NOAA-NWS-Climate Prediction Center Weatherbug Energy.

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Presentation on theme: "NOAA/Climate Prediction Center Outlooks for Spring-Summer, 2010 Ed O’Lenic Chief, Operations Branch NOAA-NWS-Climate Prediction Center Weatherbug Energy."— Presentation transcript:

1 NOAA/Climate Prediction Center Outlooks for Spring-Summer, 2010 Ed O’Lenic Chief, Operations Branch NOAA-NWS-Climate Prediction Center Weatherbug Energy Conference Houston, Texas, April 15, 2010

2 Issues in the Spring-Summer Outlook Temperature tools cooler in recent years, Trend toward warm in decline since late 2007, El Nino likely to end around June, “Spring Barrier” through mid-May = uncertainty, Wet soils = cold early summer temperatures, On-going cold decadal (PDO) event (weak) Transition to Neutral or La Nina in summer?

3 MJJ Outlooks issued March 18 (left) and April 15 (right)

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5 JJA Outlooks issued March 18 (left) and April 15 (right)

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9 SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 14 April 2010 The CFS ensemble mean (heavy blue line) predicts El Niño will last through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010, with a return to ENSO- neutral by summer 2010.

10 Distribution of OBSERVED temperature terciles in the last 14 years (courtesy H. van den Dool) BNAYR 2628461995 3634301996 2732411997 0817751998 1324631999 2220582000 1532532001 1936462002 1538472003 2033472004 0734592005 1028622006 1034562007 3141272008 2740332009 These 3 years were not very biased Suddenly warm. ENSO-related? Normals changed. Still warm-biased Warming seems to accelerate. Surprise cool-off, not really that cold

11 Distribution of OBSERVED temperature terciles in the last 14 years (courtesy H. van den Dool) BNAYR 2628461995 3634301996 2732411997 0817751998 1324631999 2220582000 1532532001 1936462002 1538472003 2033472004 0734592005 1028622006 1034562007 3141272008 2740332009 These 3 years were not very biased Suddenly warm. ENSO-related? Normals changed. Still warm-biased Warming seems to accelerate. Surprise cool-off, not really that cold

12 Distribution of OBSERVED temperature terciles in the last 14 years (courtesy H. van den Dool) BNAYR 2628461995 3634301996 2732411997 0817751998 1324631999 2220582000 1532532001 1936462002 1538472003 2033472004 0734592005 1028622006 1034562007 3141272008 2740332009 These 3 years were not very biased Suddenly warm. ENSO-related? Normals changed. Still warm-biased Warming seems to accelerate. Surprise cool-off, not really that cold

13 Distribution of OBSERVED temperature terciles in the last 14 years (courtesy H. van den Dool) BNAYR 2628461995 3634301996 2732411997 0817751998 1324631999 2220582000 1532532001 1936462002 1538472003 2033472004 0734592005 1028622006 1034562007 3141272008 2740332009 These 3 years were a little biased Suddenly warm. ENSO-related? Normals changed. Still warm-biased Warming seems to accelerate. Unexpected cool-off, not all that cold

14 Summary El Nino likely to end in June Wet soil, cold trends lead to cooler forecasts PDO, possible weak La Nina wild cards CPC forecast skill has gone up (CON)

15 FMA, MAM, AMJ (30 fcsts) Performance of Official (top) and Consolidation (bottom) ½ - month-lead 3-Month Precipitation Forecasts, 1995-2004. Solid/dashed contours show much better/worse (%) the forecast is compared to chance. Colors show the % of the time non-EC is forecast. % coverage improvement by CON is given at bottom. Mean score, %, is at lower right. Official (OFF).5 mo-lead 3-Month Precipitation Outlook, 1995-2004 Consolidation (CON).5 mo-lead 3-Month Precipitation Outlook, 1995-2004 FMA, MAM, AMJ (30 fcsts) MJJ, JJA, JAS (30 fcsts) ASO, SON, OND (30 fcsts) NDJ, DJF, JFM (30 fcsts) MJJ, JJA, JAS (30 fcsts) ASO, SON, OND (30 fcsts) NDJ, DJF, JFM (30 fcsts) FMA, MAM, AMJ (30 fcsts) MJJ, JJA, JAS (30 fcsts) ASO, SON, OND (30 fcsts) NDJ, DJF, JFM (30 fcsts) +20% +8% +18% +16% 0.5 Month Lead 3-Mo Precipitation Outlooks, 1995-2004: CON Raises U.S. Annual Mean s n from 9 to 12, and Increases Skill, non-EC % in All Seasons, Except Winter. 2 13 4 17 4 9 19 12

16 FMA, MAM, AMJ (30 fcsts) Official (OFF).5 mo-lead 3-Month Temperature Outlook, 1995-2004 Consolidation (CON).5 mo-lead 3-Month Temperature Outlook, 1995-2004 NDJ, DJF, JFM (30 fcsts) 0.5 Month Lead 3-Mo Temperature Outlooks, 1995-2004: CON Raises U.S. Annual Mean s n from 18 to 24, and Increases Skill, non-EC % in All Seasons, Except Winter. FMA, MAM, AMJ (30 fcsts) MJJ, JJA, JAS (30 fcsts) ASO, SON, OND (30 fcsts) FMA, MAM, AMJ (30 fcsts) MJJ, JJA, JAS (30 fcsts) +11% +31% +40% +55% NDJ, DJF, JFM (30 fcsts) ASO, SON, OND (30 fcsts) Performance of Official (top) and Consolidation (bottom) ½ - month-lead 3-Month Temperature Forecasts, 1995-2004. Solid/dashed contours show much better/worse (%) the forecast is compared to chance. Colors show the % of the time non-EC is forecast. % coverage improvement by CON is given at bottom. Mean score, %, is at lower right. 37 33 16 23 33 22 25

17 31 27 sd = 38 sd = 34 11 12 CONSOLIDATION IMPLEMENTED snsn sasa s a s n s n -s a n/T Fraction x 100 CONUS Spatial Average, 48-Month Running Mean of area covered,s n, s a, s n -s a 1995-2005 compared with post-2005, Temperature

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