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Published byDavid Miller Modified over 9 years ago
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2005 Outlook for U.S. Construction December 16, 2004 Cliff Brewis Senior Director Editorial McGraw-Hill Construction
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U.S. Macroeconomic Picture The economy is working through the mid-2004 “soft patch”
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Issues Impacting Recovery Pattern of Economic Expansion – Annual GDP 20012002200320042005 +0.8%+1.9%+3.0%+4.3%+3.5% Jobless Recovery –Productivity –Off Shore Employment –Oil/Health Care Cost of Money –Deficit –Inflation International –Iraq/Middle East –China/India Increasing Costs of Material –Tied to China/India –Impacts different Building Sectors
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U.S. Construction Market Indicators
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Ohio
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Major U.S. Construction Sectors By major sector, the construction start pattern has diverged.
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U.S. Single Family Housing Construction continues to be robust... Single Family Housing Starts 2002 1.304 million units +7% 2003 1.417 million units +9% 2004 1.530 million units +8% 2005 1.425 million units -7%
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U.S. Single Family Housing
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Gr. Cincinnati: Single Family
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U.S. Income Properties -- Stores Store Construction 2002 257 msf - 8% 2003 283 msf +10% 2004 290 msf +3% 2005 300 msf +3% (msf = million of sq. ft.)
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Gr. Cincinnati: Retail
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U.S. Income Properties -- Offices Office Construction 2002 157 msf -30% 2003 144 msf -9% 2004 155 msf +8% 2005 170 msf +10%
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U.S. Income Properties -- Offices
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Office Building Factors Year 2004 (Jan. - Sept.) Top 10 Metro Areas for Office Building Ranked by square feet of new office starts 1.Wash. DC+16%6.Chicago-19% 2.New York+181%7.Baltimore+36% 3.Atlanta+53%8.Tampa+24% 4.Phoenix -6%9.Las Vegas+140% 5.Dallas+21%10.San Diego+123% Tech-Related Markets : 11.Seattle+113% 25.Boston+19% 66.Austin-40% 72.San Jose-37% 160.San Francisco-92%
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Gr. Cincinnati: Offices
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U.S. Income Properties -- Multifamily Housing Multifamily Housing 2002 402,000 units -3% 2003 444,000 units +10% 2004 435,000 units -2% 2005 445,000 units +2%
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Gr. Cincinnati: Multi-Family
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U.S. Institutional Buildings School construction still strong, but slipping. Educational Buildings 2002 254 msf -7% 2003 241 msf -5% 2004 217 msf -10% 2005 223 msf +3%
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U.S. Institutional Buildings
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Change in K-12 Student Enrollments, 2003 - 2013 By State, Source: National Center for Education Statistics
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Gr. Cincinnati: Education
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U.S. Institutional Buildings Healthcare Facilities 2002 97 msf +6% 2003 91 msf -6% 2004 86 msf -6% 2005 88 msf +2% Healthcare facilities settling back from a robust 2002.
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Gr. Cincinnati: Medical
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U.S. Public Works Highways, Bridges 2002 $43.5 billion +1% 2003 $42.5 billion -2% 2004 $40.6 billion -5% 2005 $42.5 billion +5% Highways and bridges now settling back...
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OH: Highways
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U.S. Total Construction for 2004/2005 Billions of Dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005_ Total Construction 496.6 503.5 529.8576.6585.4 +5% +1% +5% +9% +2% Single Family Housing 186.9 214.2 242.3 276.6267.6 +6% +15% +13% +14% -3% Income Properties 103.1 94.0 99.5 110.0119.5 -8% -9% +6% +11% +9% Institutional Bldgs. 90.8 90.0 89.9 91.2 97.4 +9% -1% -0- +1% +7% Manufacturing Bldgs. 8.1 5.4 6.4 7.0 8.0 -8% -33% +19% +9% +15% Public Works 83.6 87.9 82.8 85.9 87.4 +7% +5% -6% +4% +2%
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Ohio
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Points of Perspective – U.S. Construction Total Construction by Cycle Cyclical Trough (T) = 100, Based on Constant Dollars
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Questions? Cliff Brewis Senior Director Editorial McGraw-Hill Construction 130 Doolittle Dr Ste 1 San Leandro, CA 94577 510.383.1106 x14 cliff_brewis@mcgraw-hill.com
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Colorado
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