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Testing Viability Jayne Lomas 16 th October 2012
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Today’s presentation…. Context - Planning and viability in 2012 HCA – Our business Area wide testing Site specific testing HCA support and advice.
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NPPF launch – Plans should be deliverable X X XHarman - Advice on viability testing of Local Plans. Further planning reform
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The Balancing Act Local expectation Economic reality Political change Local plan viability Site specific Larger phased sites DELIVERY
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HCA : Our business Housing Delivery Increasing housing supply Places that work Improving quality and standards Effective use of public sector land Meeting housing needs Delivering our programmes
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HCA: As an investor Affordable Housing Programme 2011- 15 £4.5bn (£2.3bn existing commitments) Meeting locally identified needs FirstBuy support for c.10,000 FTBs access affordable home ownership “Helping deliver the Government’s ambition to build up to 170,000 new high quality affordable homes by 2015”
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HCA : As a land owner/agent HCA Land Existing P&R commitments Accelerated disposal of land Other government land Technical support to government departments Economic Assets Programme Over 300 sites transferred – value of £300m Nationally important sites – Enterprise Zones Local stewardship arrangements
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HCA : Why viability test? To make sure we can deliver our land disposal plan To ensure we get the best value for our land To see that our investment goes where it is needed most To make sure that our investment works as hard as it can – maximise recovery To select delivery partners (DPP)
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Think like a developer ….. What is the total amount I could be paid for this development when completed? Gross development value. What will it cost me to construct the development including site set up? Overall build cost. Any additional construction costs? Infrastructure/site abnormals? What additional obligations will I have to meet? S106/CIL/Affordable housing How will I pay for this development work? Finance costs and cashflow impact What costs will I have to pay to sell the units? Marketing and legal costs How can I satisfy my shareholders? Developer’s return or overheads and profit. What can I afford to pay for the land? Residual l and value
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The secret of viability testing Assumptions, assumptions, assumptions Comparators Benchmarks Do ( as much as you can) yourself !
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The overall price at which the developer calculates he can sell on the land and new buildings. Ultimately the ‘fixed cake’ from which everything has to be paid. For sales values look at local market evidence. Hometrack. Sales values used should be forecast to the proposed sales period – could be several years Look at sales rates and the impact this has on cashflow.. Income assumptions
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Expenditure assumptions 1 The total cost of constructing the units Building Cost Information Service (BCIS) from RICS –Definition ‘substructure & superstructure but not infrastructure’ ‘back to the pavement but no further’ –Limitations sample size, Build scale Volume house building –Cost efficiencies of a standard product ? –Supply chain benefits Quality standards - Code for Sustainable Homes (CSH) & Zero Carbon, Life time homes Contingency???? Unit Build costs
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Expenditure assumptions 2 Prelims and site set up – depends on length of contract External works Infrastructure Abnormals (for the type of scheme….) Design fees Finance fees Marketing costs and incentives Overheads and profit
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Expenditure assumptions 3 S106 CIL Affordable Housing – tenure mix, numbers Regulatory burden?
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HCA : Our Viability tools Designed to be neutral, open and transparent Available free from our website No ongoing license fees Guidance online Specific support available via email helpdesk www.homesandcommunities.co.uk/ourwork/viability-planning-tools
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HCA : Area wide viability model A transparent, independent tool The AWVM is simple and can be used for consultation events Can be used for plan making purposes over many years Can be used throughout changes in teams/consultants Land value is calculated as one of the outputs and is not an input derived by the land owner or others. It will ‘goalseek’ to find the viable level of Affordable Housing given the assumptions made
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HCA : Development appraisal tool Site specific viability tool (DAT) Residual value model Based on assumptions Advice on sourcing robust input data Allows benchmarking between bids and sites. Derivations for deferred receipt – Build Now Pay later
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HCA : ATLAS Specialist support on larger sites (ATLAS) Usually at the request of the LPA Housing led development sites +500 units Mixed use complex schemes Any stage of delivery Linked to a site or delivery proposal Non – project support
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