2. Sub-GLOBAL GUESSWORK FRAMEWORK space time GLOBAL GCI www.gci.org.uk C & C - A Syntax for Survival Globalisation of Consciousness Science and the Risks Economic Fundamentals for Climate “Efficiency” Revisited Trends of “Expansion & Divergence” Resolved with “Contraction & Convergence” Syntax for Global Climate Policies

3. Sub-GLOBAL GUESSWORK FRAMEWORK space time GLOBAL GCI www.gci.org.uk FRAMEWORK Sub-GLOBAL G U E S S W O R K Sub-GLOBAL GLOBAL F R A M E W O R K GUESSWORK FRAMEWORKGUESSWORK GLOBAL Sub-GLOBAL Guesswork to Framework...

4. Sub-GLOBAL GUESSWORK FRAMEWORK space time GLOBAL GCI www.gci.org.uk G U E S S W O R K Sub-GLOBAL GLOBAL F R A M E W O R K Fatalist HeirarchistIndividualist Egalitarian Cultural Theory... ?

5. Sub-GLOBAL GUESSWORK FRAMEWORK space time GLOBAL GCI www.gci.org.uk G U E S S W O R K Sub-GLOBAL GLOBAL F R A M E W O R K Fatalist HeirarchistIndividualist Egalitarian Global Consciousness... ? POPULATION IMPACT INCOME

6. Sub-GLOBAL GUESSWORK FRAMEWORK space time GLOBAL GCI www.gci.org.uk will have been completed a process of “Contraction & Convergence” of greenhouse gas emissions “We already know, when dangerous climate change has been avoided, resolving asymmetric conditions of “Expansion & Divergence.” C&C and the UNFCCC

7. Sub-GLOBAL GUESSWORK FRAMEWORK space time GLOBAL GCI www.gci.org.uk “Taking the...... rights-based approach... to its logical conclusion.” I P C C - 2001 3rd Assessment Report C&C and the IPCC

8. Sub-GLOBAL GUESSWORK FRAMEWORK space time GLOBAL GCI www.gci.org.uk C&C

9. Sub-GLOBAL GUESSWORK FRAMEWORK space time GLOBAL GCI www.gci.org.uk Gtc 5Gtc 10Gtc 15Gtc 20Gtc 18001900200021002200 250 450 650 850 1050 ppmv C&C on a timescale

10. Sub-GLOBAL GUESSWORK FRAMEWORK space time GLOBAL GCI www.gci.org.uk Gtc 5Gtc 10Gtc 15Gtc 20Gtc 18001900200021002200 Business As Usual 250 450 650 850 1050 ppmv Concentrations Rising BAU

11. Sub-GLOBAL GUESSWORK FRAMEWORK space time GLOBAL GCI www.gci.org.uk... or Stabilised 450 ppmv

12. Sub-GLOBAL GUESSWORK FRAMEWORK space time GLOBAL GCI www.gci.org.uk 0 1 2 3 4 Celsius Temperature Rising BAU? Business As Usual Gtc 5Gtc 10Gtc 15Gtc 20Gtc 18001900200021002200

13. Sub-GLOBAL GUESSWORK FRAMEWORK space time GLOBAL GCI www.gci.org.uk... or Stabilised below 2 o C

14. Sub-GLOBAL GUESSWORK FRAMEWORK space time GLOBAL GCI www.gci.org.uk CO 2 :GDP Lockstep - Broken? 0% 8% %s CO2 %s GDP 1955 1990

15. Sub-GLOBAL GUESSWORK FRAMEWORK space time GLOBAL GCI www.gci.org.uk Damages – Rising

16. Sub-GLOBAL GUESSWORK FRAMEWORK space time GLOBAL GCI www.gci.org.uk GDP less Damages -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 0$ tr 50$ tr 100$ tr damages as % Of GDP less damages GDP less damages

17. Sub-GLOBAL GUESSWORK FRAMEWORK space time GLOBAL GCI www.gci.org.uk -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 0$ tr 50$ tr 100$ tr GDP less Damages as % GDP growth less damages as % GDP less damages

18. Sub-GLOBAL GUESSWORK FRAMEWORK space time GLOBAL GCI www.gci.org.uk Economy - Basic Features INCOME (Production) PEOPLE (Population) IMPACT (Pollution)..... A L L G R O W I N G

19. Sub-GLOBAL GUESSWORK FRAMEWORK space time GLOBAL GCI www.gci.org.uk Economy Basic Features IMPACT INCOME POPULATION

20. Sub-GLOBAL GUESSWORK FRAMEWORK space time GLOBAL GCI www.gci.org.uk Economy - Basic Relationships HIGH Impact Per Capita LOW Impact Per Capita

21. Sub-GLOBAL GUESSWORK FRAMEWORK space time GLOBAL GCI www.gci.org.uk Economy - Basic Relationships HIGH Income Per Capita LOW Income Per Capita

22. Sub-GLOBAL GUESSWORK FRAMEWORK space time GLOBAL GCI www.gci.org.uk Economy - Basic Relationships HIGH Efficiency [$ Per Tonne] LOW Efficiency [$ Per Tonne]

23. Sub-GLOBAL GUESSWORK FRAMEWORK space time GLOBAL GCI www.gci.org.uk Economy - Basic Relationships

24. Sub-GLOBAL GUESSWORK FRAMEWORK space time GLOBAL GCI www.gci.org.uk

25. Sub-GLOBAL GUESSWORK FRAMEWORK space time GLOBAL GCI www.gci.org.uk PPP $:tonne ‘Efficiency’ - 1990 10% 100% 1,000% 10,000% 1% 0% 10% 100% 1,000% 10,000% 1% 0%

26. Sub-GLOBAL GUESSWORK FRAMEWORK space time GLOBAL GCI www.gci.org.uk INCOME GROSS billions US$ IMPACT GROSS CO 2 billions tonnes carbon INCOME GROSS PPP$ billions PPP$ INCOME PPP$ PER CAPITA PPP$ IMPACT CO 2 PER CAPITA tonnes carbon INCOME PER CAPITA US$ EFFICIENCY PPP$/CO 2 EFFICIENCY US$/CO 2 Trends of Expansion & Divergence

27. Sub-GLOBAL GUESSWORK FRAMEWORK space time GLOBAL GCI www.gci.org.uk Trends of Expansion & Divergence

28. Sub-GLOBAL GUESSWORK FRAMEWORK space time GLOBAL GCI www.gci.org.uk Trends of Expansion & Divergence

29. Sub-GLOBAL GUESSWORK FRAMEWORK space time GLOBAL GCI www.gci.org.uk Contraction & Convergence 2050 5Gtc 10Gtc 190020002100 Rest of World India China Annex 1 (non-OECD) OECD minus USA USA 1800 2200 0 2 4 6 Gross Emissions Per Capita Emissions

30. Sub-GLOBAL GUESSWORK FRAMEWORK space time GLOBAL GCI www.gci.org.uk 0 2 4 6 Contraction & Convergence 2100 5Gtc 10Gtc 1900200021001800 2200 Rest of World India China Annex 1 (non-OECD) OECD minus USA USA Gross Emissions Per Capita Emissions

31. Sub-GLOBAL GUESSWORK FRAMEWORK space time GLOBAL GCI www.gci.org.uk Contraction & Convergence Gtc 10Gtc 18001900200021002200 CO2 Non Annex One CO2 Annex One BAU i.e. Convergence by 2100

32. Sub-GLOBAL GUESSWORK FRAMEWORK space time GLOBAL GCI www.gci.org.uk Contraction & Convergence Gtc 10Gtc 18001900200021002200 CO2 Non Annex One CO2 Annex One BAU i.e. Convergence by 2020

33. Sub-GLOBAL GUESSWORK FRAMEWORK space time GLOBAL GCI www.gci.org.uk Contraction & Convergence Gtc 10Gtc 18001900200021002200 CO2 Non Annex One CO2 Negotiated Area CO2 Annex One BAU i.e. Convergence by 2020 30Gtc 20Gtc

34. Sub-GLOBAL GUESSWORK FRAMEWORK space time GLOBAL GCI www.gci.org.uk Contraction & Convergence Gtc 10Gtc 18001900200021002200 CO2 Non Annex One CO2 Traded Area CO2 Annex One BAU 30Gtc 20Gtc Net Zero CO2 Renewables Efficiency

35. Sub-GLOBAL GUESSWORK FRAMEWORK space time GLOBAL GCI www.gci.org.uk “ C & C ” – The Classic Image

36. Sub-GLOBAL GUESSWORK FRAMEWORK space time GLOBAL GCI www.gci.org.uk “Contraction & Convergence” with emissions trading delivering Objective & Principles of the UNFCCC. “Contraction & Convergence” Emissions Trading Joint Implementation Clean Development Mechanism Kyoto Protocol Sub-GLOBAL GUESSWORK GLOBAL FRAMEWORK POPULATION C & C Resolves Asymmetry of E & D @ 3%/year $ GDP@12%/year Damages Efficiency - $GDP:Tonne Cost Benefit Analysis World Clean Energy Plan Natural Capitalism Technology – [Factor Four to Ten] AOSIS Protocol Brazilian Proposal Dynamic Targets’ linked to GDP Sky Trust Byrd Hagel Resolution (USA)..... is..... Sub-GLOBAL G U E S S W O R K GLOBAL F R A M E W O R K ‘Historic Responsibilities’ IMPACT INCOME

37. Sub-GLOBAL GUESSWORK FRAMEWORK space time GLOBAL GCI www.gci.org.uk will by definition have been completed a process of “Contraction & Convergence” of greenhouse gas emissions “We already know... HERE & NOW By THEN when dangerous climate change has been avoided, resolving asymmetric conditions of “Expansion & Divergence.”