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Tamas Kovacs Hungarian Meteorological Service Climatology Division Seasonal forecast and an outlook for Winter 2013/14 in Hungary Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session.

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Presentation on theme: "Tamas Kovacs Hungarian Meteorological Service Climatology Division Seasonal forecast and an outlook for Winter 2013/14 in Hungary Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session."— Presentation transcript:

1 Tamas Kovacs Hungarian Meteorological Service Climatology Division Seasonal forecast and an outlook for Winter 2013/14 in Hungary Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session of the South-East European Climate Outlook Forum, Belgrade, Serbia, November 20-21 2013

2 SEECOF-9 Consensus Outlook for Summer 2013 Low oceanic forcingno clear teleconnection patterns limited predictability Likelihood of above-normal temperature for the SEECOF region. Hungary lesser probability for exceeding average summer season temperature

3 Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session of the South-East European Climate Outlook Forum, Belgrade, Serbia, November 20-21 2013 SEECOF-9 Consensus Outlook for Summer 2013 Low oceanic forcingno clear teleconnection patterns limited predictability Likelihood of above-normal temperature for the SEECOF region. Larger uncertainties in case of precip. Hungary lesser probability for exceeding average summer season temperature likely near- or below-average precipitation

4 Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session of the South-East European Climate Outlook Forum, Belgrade, Serbia, November 20-21 2013 Summer 2013 in Hungary The 10th hottest Summer since 1901 (+1.5°C) Summer mean temperature 20.7 – 21.7 °C (Szeged: 23.3°C)

5 Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session of the South-East European Climate Outlook Forum, Belgrade, Serbia, November 20-21 2013 Summer 2013 in Hungary The 10th hottest Summer since 1901 (+1.5°C) Summer mean temperature 20.7 – 21.7°C (Szeged: 23.3°C) Summer temperature anomaly +1 - +2°C

6 Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session of the South-East European Climate Outlook Forum, Belgrade, Serbia, November 20-21 2013 Summer 2013 in Hungary The 10th hottest Summer since 1901 (+1.5°C) All summer months above average summer days:67 (56) hot days: 32 (18) heat days:8 (1)

7 Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session of the South-East European Climate Outlook Forum, Belgrade, Serbia, November 20-21 2013 Summer 2013 in Hungary The 10th hottest Summer since 1901 (+1.5°C) All summer months above average summer days:67 (56) hot days: 32 (18) heat days:8 (1) Since 1901: 36th warmest June 16th warmest July 7th warmest August 10th warmest Summer in 2013

8 Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session of the South-East European Climate Outlook Forum, Belgrade, Serbia, November 20-21 2013 Summer 2013 in Hungary The 6th driest Summer since 1901 (60%) Summer precipitation 80 – 120 mm some regions up to 160-180 south and northeast below 80!

9 Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session of the South-East European Climate Outlook Forum, Belgrade, Serbia, November 20-21 2013 Summer 2013 in Hungary The 6th driest Summer since 1901 (60%) Summer precipitation 80 – 120 mm some regions up to 160-180 south and northeast below 80! Summer precipitation anomaly 40 – 80%

10 Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session of the South-East European Climate Outlook Forum, Belgrade, Serbia, November 20-21 2013 Summer 2013 in Hungary The 6th driest Summer since 1901 (60%) All summer months below average wet days: 20 (28)

11 Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session of the South-East European Climate Outlook Forum, Belgrade, Serbia, November 20-21 2013 Summer 2013 in Hungary The 6th driest Summer since 1901 (60%) All summer months below average wet days: 20 (28) Since 1901: 39th direst June 3rd driest July 29th driest August 6th driest Summer in 2013

12 Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session of the South-East European Climate Outlook Forum, Belgrade, Serbia, November 20-21 2013 Seasonal forecast Applying ECMWF System 4 long range forecast Producing forecasts as country averages in every month for mean temperature (6 regions in addition) max. temperature min. temperature precipitation amount (6 regions in addition) in 5-day periods for the following 3 months. Plus an outlook for the 4-6 months as well only mean temp. and precip. country averages Using calibrated grid data for Hungary Verification results show that conversion to System 4 brought advance comparing to previous years.

13 Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session of the South-East European Climate Outlook Forum, Belgrade, Serbia, November 20-21 2013 Seasonal forecast

14 Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session of the South-East European Climate Outlook Forum, Belgrade, Serbia, November 20-21 2013 Seasonal forecast

15 Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session of the South-East European Climate Outlook Forum, Belgrade, Serbia, November 20-21 2013 Seasonal forecast

16 Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session of the South-East European Climate Outlook Forum, Belgrade, Serbia, November 20-21 2013 Monthly forecast December 2013: slightly warmer, slightly drier December 2013 Area Mean temperaturePrecipitation amount mean climat forecast mean climat forecast fromtofromto Hungary0.6-0.92.5442060 Budapest area0.9-0.62.7421560 Northern mountains-0.5-2.11.533550 Northern Great Plain0.0-1.72.0371055 Southern Great Plain0.82.8452060 Southern Transdanubia1.0-0.72.7522565 Northern Transdanubia0.7-0.72.3421555

17 Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session of the South-East European Climate Outlook Forum, Belgrade, Serbia, November 20-21 2013 Monthly forecast January 2014: slightly warmer, drier January 2014 Area Mean temperaturePrecipitation amount mean climat forecast mean climat forecast fromtofromto Hungary-0.8-2.00.9321545 Budapest area-0.6-1.51.2331545 Northern mountains-2.0-3.2-0.225545 Northern Great Plain-1.6-2.90.2271045 Southern Great Plain-0.8-2.11.0291045 Southern Transdanubia-0.4-1.41.2352050 Northern Transdanubia-0.8-1.80.9321545

18 Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session of the South-East European Climate Outlook Forum, Belgrade, Serbia, November 20-21 2013 Monthly forecast February 2014: slightly warmer, drier February 2014 Area Mean temperaturePrecipitation amount mean climat forecast mean climat forecast fromtofromto Hungary1.1-0.92.9291040 Budapest area1.4-0.53.1271035 Northern mountains0.3-1.71.924535 Northern Great Plain0.6-1.52.226540 Southern Great Plain1.1-0.82.928535 Southern Transdanubia1.3-0.73.0331545 Northern Transdanubia1.13.0291040

19 Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session of the South-East European Climate Outlook Forum, Belgrade, Serbia, November 20-21 2013 Forecast for Winter Winter 2013/2014: slightly warmer, drier Winter 2013/2014 outlook for Hungary Mean temperaturePrecipitation amount climat fromto climat fromto December 0.6-0.92.5442060 January -0.8-2.00.9321545 February 1.1-0.92.9291040

20 Thank you for your attention! Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session of the South-East European Climate Outlook Forum, Belgrade, Serbia, November 20-21 2013 Tamas Kovacs Hungarian Meteorological Service Climatology Division

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