1. Prof. dr. Pier Vellinga, OSC Amsterdam Presentation, July 11, 2001 Industrial Transformation Exploring Systems Change in Production and Consumption Prof. dr. Pier Vellinga [ pier.vellinga@ivm.vu.nl] Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) Vrije Universiteit De Boelelaan 1115 1081 HV Amsterdam The Netherlands IHDP

2. Prof. dr. Pier Vellinga, OSC Amsterdam Presentation, July 11, 2001 Critical Issues Human choice & uncertainty Future development trajectories International cooperation

3. Prof. dr. Pier Vellinga, OSC Amsterdam Presentation, July 11, 2001 Local Average Income Levels and Environmental Quality  Household sanitation/health  Water pollution/ health  Air contamination/health  Restoration time: 5-20 years

4. Prof. dr. Pier Vellinga, OSC Amsterdam Presentation, July 11, 2001 Regional Average Income Levels and Environmental Quality  River catchments scale  Quality and quantity of water  Ecosystems acidification/eutrophication  Restoration time: 10-50 years or more

5. Prof. dr. Pier Vellinga, OSC Amsterdam Presentation, July 11, 2001 Global Average Income Levels and Environmental Quality  Climate change  Loss of species  Restoration time: 50-500 years and more

6. Prof. dr. Pier Vellinga, OSC Amsterdam Presentation, July 11, 2001 Development Stages in Corporate and Societal Response Pro-activeSystemsSocietyVision ReactiveEnd-of-pipesSpecialistsMinimisation ReceptiveProcessManagersOptimisation ConstructiveProductSectorAcceleration Response PhaseFocus of AttentionMain ActorsDriving Philosophy

7. Prof. dr. Pier Vellinga, OSC Amsterdam Presentation, July 11, 2001 Micro (Niches) Meso (Regimes) Macro (Landscape) Transformation through reinforcing change at three levels time

8. Prof. dr. Pier Vellinga, OSC Amsterdam Presentation, July 11, 2001 Research Foci and Framework for Industrial Transformation Industrial Transformation Research Cities (Focus on Transportation and Water) Food Energy and Material Flows Information and Communication Governance and Transformation Processes

9. Prof. dr. Pier Vellinga, OSC Amsterdam Presentation, July 11, 2001 Energy and Material Flows - Priority research examples - 1.Transport based on bio-fuels. 2.Transformation of energy system - economic theories. 3.A hydrogen economy with CO 2 underground storage.

10. Prof. dr. Pier Vellinga, OSC Amsterdam Presentation, July 11, 2001 Food - Priority research examples - 1.Shift from animal to plant protein - environmental benefits, social desirability and technical feasibility. 2.Organic farming - feasibility and implications for developing countries. 3.Regional versus global food systems.

11. Prof. dr. Pier Vellinga, OSC Amsterdam Presentation, July 11, 2001 Cities (focus on water and transport ) - Priority research examples - 1.Comparative studies of cities. 2.Options for decoupling urban activities from interference with carbon and water cycles. 3.Cities as complex systems – biocomplexity analysis.

12. Prof. dr. Pier Vellinga, OSC Amsterdam Presentation, July 11, 2001 Information & Communication - Priority research examples - 1.ICT effects on lifestyle and environmental resource use. 2.ICT organizers and their role in global environmental change

13. Prof. dr. Pier Vellinga, OSC Amsterdam Presentation, July 11, 2001 Governance & Transformation Processes - Priority research examples - 1.Corporate strategies towards green, low-budget products in developing countries. 2.Socially Responsible Investments - mechanism for transformation of capital markets towards sustainability. 3.Co-evolution of society-nature interactions.

14. Prof. dr. Pier Vellinga, OSC Amsterdam Presentation, July 11, 2001 Actors in Safe-Guarding the Global Environment Visions on science, technology, societal preferences and investment opportunities Governments/ UN system Civil society / consumers International corporations

15. Prof. dr. Pier Vellinga, OSC Amsterdam Presentation, July 11, 2001 Research Challenges 1.Human choice regarding processes that operate on a time scale of decades to centuries. 2.Exploration of future development trajectories that have a significantly smaller impact on global environmental resources and meet human preferences and needs for energy, transport, food and water. 3.Exploration of mechanisms for effective international cooperation.

16. Prof. dr. Pier Vellinga, OSC Amsterdam Presentation, July 11, 2001 The message 1.To solve global environmental problems “end-of-pipe” and efficiency approaches will not be sufficient. 2.Green products may help but only in the context of systems change. 3.Systems change requires mutually reinforcing societal, institutional and technological changes. 4.While there are many technologies available, the HUMAN DIMENSION is critical for their adoption. 5.The time scale an momentum of global environmental change implies that actions have to be based on scientific projections.