1. FUTURE INTELLIGENCE Dealing with uncertainty
through scenario dynamics.
Philippe Gabilliet, ESCP-EAP

2. « Looking at the human beings living their lives, I can confirm that
their one and almost only preoccupation
is to live their future in advance, »
Jean Sutter

3. ? FACES OF UNCERTAINTY GLOBAL PERSONAL SOCIAL MANAGERIAL MARKETS
CORPORATE

4. CURRENT UNCERTAINTY Basic ingredients
1° - ACCELERATING CHANGES IN THE ENVIRONMENT
2° - LOOSING LANDMARKS AND BLIND FLYING
3° - AN ERA OF COMPLEXITY
4° - REDISCOVERING INERTIA

5. UNCERTAINTY : the four levels
(from : Courtney, Kirkland, Viguerie)
A CLEAR ENOUGH FUTURE
ALTERNATE FUTURES 1 2 3
A single forecast precise enough for determining strategy.
A few discrete outcomes that define the future.
TRUE AMBIGUITY
A RANGE OF FUTURES ?
A range of possible outcomes, but no natural scenarios
No basis to forecast the future.

6. ACCESSING TO THE FUTURE
Three ways
* By the PAST => FORESEEING
* By the FUTURE => PREDICTING
* By the PRESENT => ANTICIPATING

7. Six ways to think about tomorrow
FACING THE FUTURE
Six ways to think about tomorrow
THE OSTRICH
THE FIREMAN
THE GAMBLER
THE INSURER
THE SENTINEL
THE EXPLORER

8. FACE THE FUTURE Three standpoints
REACTIVITY The executive is ready to face changes he ignores all about
PRE-ACTIVITY The executive is ready to face changes predictably enough
PRO-ACTIVITY The executive behaves to produce changes that he wishes

9. THE « A » FORMULA I M
ANTICI-PATION D

10. Four principles for action
ANTICIPATING
Four principles for action
1° - MAKING THE RIGHT DECISION AS A BET
2° - SEARCHING THE CAUSE IN THE FUTURE
3° - REHEARSING THE CRITICAL OPTIONS
4° - THINKING THE COMING LINKS

11. WHAT COULD YOU TELL US
ABOUT YOURSELF
WITHIN 10 YEARS FROM NOW ?

12. FUTURE LANDMARKS
2015
2005

13. « I am myself,
and my circumstances...»
M. Ortega y Gasset

14. FUTURE : Three grounds

15. FUTURE LANDMARKS
2015
2005

16. FOUR QUESTIONS What are the driving forces ? What is inevitable ?
What do you feel is uncertain ?
How about your main areas of free-will and basic options ?

17. FUTURE LANDMARKS
2015
2005

18. 2015 2005 FUTURE LANDMARKS 5. S…………. 4. B………….. S………. 3. T……………
6. O………… F………

19. FUTURE : my key decisions

20. FUTURE-ORIENTED EXECUTIVES
The Fifth Question
WHAT MAY
HAPPEN ?
(alternatives)
WHAT MAY
WE DO ?
(options)
WHAT WILL
WE DO ?
(strategy)
HOW TO DO IT ?
(planning)

21. FUTURE OF THE EXECUTIVE Some basic assumptions
FREE DOM AND RISK
SYSTEMATIC MOVES AND SHARED POWER
WILL AND PROJECT
INTUITION AND AWARENESS

22. « Looking into the future, is changing it already»
Gaston Berger

23. LOOKING AT THE FUTURE The 6 tracks LOOKING FAR AHEAD LOOKING GLOBALLY
LOOKING IN DEPTH
LOOKING RATIONALLY
LOOKING AT DIFFERENT ASSUMPTIONS
LOOKING WITH OTHERS

24. WHAT IS A SCENARIO ?
FUTURE
IMAGE 1 2 3
CURRENT
SYSTEM
PATHWAY

25. SCENARIOS MATRIX (from Ilbury & Sunter) CONTROL CERTAINTY UNCERTAINTY
ABSENCE OF CONTROL

26. FOUR COMON SENSE IDEAS ABOUT THE FUTURE
IT WILL NOT BE PERFECT
IT WILL BE THE PRODUCT OF AN ENVIRONMENT
IT ALREADY EXISTS
MANAGERS WHO GET READY FOR IT TODAY WIL BE THE BEST EQUIPPED TOMORROW

27. « Time scorns what is done in haste»
Paul Morand