1. How to value ecosystem goods and services in agriculture at increasing land use pressure ? Katarina Hedlund Lund university, Sweden

2. Proyeksi Guna-Lahan 1.Production of goods is increasing Food, biofuels, timber, water use 2.Natural habitats are declining 3.Mitigating climate change Increased pressure on land for production of biomass

3. EU biofuel strategy 20061% (produced in EU) 20106%10% of total area 202010%43% of total area Guna-lahan Pertanian Nowicki 2006

4. Current land use in Europe Eurostat 2008

5. Biofuel production Agriculture Natural grasslands Land use demands

6. Extensive agriculture, Dehesas in Spain How do we conserve ecosystem services and biodiversity ? Agri-environmental schemes: Extensification Protected areas Heterogeneity in landscapes

7. EU common agricultural policy CAP Implemented nationally as rural development plans with additional national funding CAP (12 000 million €/yr), 47% of EU budget Farming is 5% of European economy CAP subsidies –Area based income support –Rural development actions –Agri-environmental schemes

8. Jasa-jasa ekosistem terancam oleh Pertanian Intensif 1.Musuh alami 2.Pollination 3.Resistance to pests & invasive species 4.Siklus Hara 5.Terensi Air 6.Retensi Carbon

9. Intensification and above ground services Increased heterogeneity may give higher diversity Effect is scale dependent Not true for all species Tscharnkte et al. 2007

10. Soil ecosystem services Nutrient cycling N, P retention and availability to plants Water retention Aggregate structure, organic matter Carbon retention Fuels microbial activity, mitigates climate change

11. Soil ecosystem services -the ”workers”

12. Soil services Reduced under intensive management Hedlund 2002

13. SOILSERVICE Conflicting demands of land use: Soil biodiversity and the sustainable delivery of ecosystem goods and services in Europe http://www.kem.ekol.lu.se/soilservice/index.html value soil ecosystem services. predict sustainability of ecosystem services, by field and modelling studies. Build scenarios to identify economical and social drivers of land use

14. Biofuel production AgricultureNatural grasslands Land use demands Soil carbon Nutrients Natural enemies Pollination

15. Valuasi Jasa-jasa Ekologis Market values of ecological services: prevention of pests - natural enemies pollination water retention nutrient retention Non market values: recreation landscapes Markanday et al 2008

16. Valuasi Ekonomi merupakan pendekatan yang dinamis Jasa-jasa Ekosistem dalam Pertanian: 1.Dynamic network of interacting organisms 2.Responding to changes in land use 3.Depending on spatial and temporal scales

17. JASA-JASA TANAH Economic model simulated landscapes predicts regional land use (20 yrs) Ecological model farmers scale predicts output of ecosystem services Values of services for farmer and society Predictions on sustainability Feed back to policymakers

18. AgriPoliS Agent-based model of regional structural change over time and space Actions Interactions Farms Factor endowment Agricultural Policy Simulator (Happe 2004, Brady et al 2007) Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO), Halle, Germany

19. Driver untuk AgriPoliS Eksogen: 1.Prices of inputs/outputs 2.Wage and interest rates 3.Agricultural policy 4.Climate 5.Technology Endogen: 1.Land market 2.Regional markets 3.Input & output levels 4.Land use 5.Landscape impacts 6.ES production

20. Output from AgriPoliS Farm structure –Average farm size –Number of farms –Distribution of farm type Land use –Composition of crops –Distribution of field size –Landscape mosaic Econ. Performance –Land rents by soil type –Farm income –Farm profit –Investment activity –Returns to labour Livestock –Numbers of livestock –Animal density

21. Landscape impacts – Land use & field size

22. Land use data (GIS based) Southern Sweden Cereal productionGrasslands