1. Applications in Acquisition Decision-Making Process

2. Why is this important? This is our major task As Managers, this is why we have jobs! Process by which decisions are made affects the way we do business The way we do business affects the process by which we make decisions

3. Phases in Decision Making Process Intelligence Searching the environment for conditions calling for decisions. Data inputs are obtained, processed, and examined for clues that may identify problems or opportunities. Inventing, developing, and analyzing possible courses of action. This involves processes to understand the problem, to generate solutions, and to test solutions for feasibility. Selecting an alternative or course of action from those available. The choice is made and implemented. Design Choice First suggested by H.A. Simon, 1959

4. Intelligence Phase Problem finding –The difference in the existing situation and some desired situation or a “gap” –Expectations and Standards Problem Formulation—clarify the problem –Determine boundaries –Examine causes of “gap” –Analyze (break into smaller problems) –Focus on the controllable

5. Intelligence Phase Often times simply stating the problem clearly leads to an obvious decision Identifying Types often leads to heuristics –Certainty? –Risk? –Programmable? Identifying Impact often leads to solutions

6. Design Phase Development of Alternatives –Creative Process –Must have adequate knowledge (intelligence) –Must be motivated to solve (gap) DoA can be enhanced by aids such as brainstorming, analogies, computer programs, etc.

7. Choice Phase Too much time is spent here rather than in intelligence and design Methods of Choice –Autocratic –Democratic –Mathematical Different Models

8. Rational Manager Model Classic conception developed from micro- economic assumptions –Rationality –Perfect information –Cost-benefit analysis –Utility maximization This is a form of “optimizing”

9. Administrative Model The individual is confronted with alternatives Each alternative is assigned consequences, preferences, and probabilities Alternatives are ranked Highest rank is chosen This model lacks external validity

10. Actual Manager Model Sometimes called the “satisficing” model Based on Bounded Rationality Focuses on Heuristics Focuses on “good enough” Attempts to recognize that the world is what it is and not necessarily what it should be This model has more external validity

11. A Note on Heuristics Rules of Thumb Compromise between –Demands of problem –Capabilities and commitment of the Decision- Maker Can be improved, but at a cost –Calibrated over time

12. Intuition and Judgment? More for the unstructured problem –Difficult to understand What is intuition and judgment? –Study –Experience –Education

13. Information and Decision-making Information Need for Decision Ability to get information Low High Low Bad Decisions Good Decisions Inefficient Process Good Decisions Vickery Model

14. Critical Thinking Thinking, appropriately moved by reason. Skillful, responsible, thinking that is conducive to judgment because it relies on criteria, is self-correcting and is sensitive to context.

15. Critical Thinking D-M Model Investigate the Situation Define Problem Diagnose Causes Determine Objectives Develop Alternatives Pros and Cons Evaluate Alternatives Risk Management Choice Models Implement and Feedback Risk Management “Critical Thinking” (Reason, Logic, Evidence) Challenging Assumptions Developing Better Alternatives Ethical Considerations Divergent Thinking Creativity Innovation Convergent Thinking Taking Action Making Adjustments

16. Ethics The discipline dealing with what is good and bad. Affected by moral duty and obligations A set of moral principles and values Principles of conduct governing an individual or group

17. Ethics and Values Ethics are situational and changing –Things change, decisions change Values are firm and long term –Absolute right and wrong

18. Ethics ETHICS translate values into ACTIONS

19. Ethical Values Values are directly related to our beliefs about what is good and proper Values impose moral obligations upon us

20. Common Rationalizations If it’s necessary it’s right If it’s legal it’s right I was doing it for you! I’m just fighting fire with fire! It’s a victimless crime Everyone’s doing it! I deserve it! He/she deserves it! I don’t gain personally

21. Ethical Decision Making Models Golden Rule Do unto others as you would have them do unto you

22. Ethical Decision Making Models Deontology Emanuel (Kant): “Higher truths” impose absolute moral obligations which must be followed with no regard to the consequences

23. Ethical Decision Making Models Teleology Consequentialism/Utilitarian Ethical Conduct is determined by the consequences produced. Ethical decisions produce the greatest possible balance of benefits vs. costs

24. Ethical Decision Making Models Principled Decision-Making All decisions should consider all stakeholders Ethical Values take precedence over non-ethical ones It is ethically proper to violate an ethical principle when it is clearly necessary to advance another true ethical principle which will produce the greatest good in the long run

25. Summary Problem solving and decision making are continuing tasks in acquisition Generic problem solving model is a systematic way to solve problems Critical thinking takes it to the next level and includes ethics, synthesis, analysis, and evaluation

26. Summary Critical thinking is: –Process used to deal with complex situations –Is a conscious ongoing effort –Has feedback standards –Based on reason, logic, and evidence

27. Assignment “Arab Spring” –What is it? –Why is it happening –Context with the rest of world –Iran

28. Just for Fun no DEAL

29. Just for Fun you just me

30. Just for Fun CHAIAMRGE

31. Just for Fun IT SHE