1. Agriculture & Adaptation to Climate Change John Reilly Massachusetts Institute of Technology Appearance before the Standing Senate Committee on Agriculture and Forestry 25 March 2003, Ottawa, Canada

2. Climate, Weather, & Markets  Climate change: beneficial or detrimental  Time Scale—crop season, decade, century  Persistent trend, variability  Beyond the farm gate: resources, pollution, transportation, communities  Observed trends, predicted changes.

4. US Regional Production Changes, Canadian Center Climate

5. Regional Production Changes, Hadley Center Climate

6. Changes in Resource Use, Canadian and Hadley Center Climates

7. Adaptation: Cautions  A few years may mislead with regard to the long term trend; predictability at relevant spatial scales is a distant goal or impossibility.  Is an adaptive investment viable if trend persists? irrigation may work for a while but not long if the water source disappears.  Economic assistance may reduce incentive to make the difficult but necessary changes.

8. Adaptation  Economics and Management Price (profit, loss) as signals. Risk management & market instruments.  Information Monitoring/analysis of weather trends Improved medium-run forecasting Education re. climate change & potential responses.  Specific Technological Responses Water management Crop varieties, planting dates Pest management