1. Systeemianalyysin, päätöksenteon ja riskienhallinnan tutkijakoulu Syysseminaari 4.-5.12.2002, Tallinna Anu Polvinen: Ageing population and pension system in Finland Population state of health and its impact on retirement age

2. Problems: How to forecast population state of health? => retirement age => public economy (risks)

3. Previous literature: Auerbach, A. & Kotlikoff, L. & Leibfritz, W. (1999): Generational accounting around the world. The University of Chigago press Alho, J.M.(1990): Stochastic Methods in Population Forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting 6 (1990) 521-530. Hakola, Tuulia (2002): Economic Incentives and Labour Market Transitions of the Aged Finnish Workforce. University of Helsinki.

4. Results: Develop statistical methods to estimate ageing population according to state of health, ability to work, incomes and social status Results related to previous population forecasts