1. CEEH Energy System Optimisation Kenneth Karlsson Risø DTU, National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy Technical University of Denmark kenneth.karlsson@risoe.dk

2. Optimisation loop Energy System model Emissions Externalities Economic development etc.

3. Centre for Energy, Environment and Health Energy System Modelling – 2005 to 2050 Energy demand: Transport energy Electricity Heat Fuels - from all sectors Energy supply: Power plants Boilers Energy storage Hydrogen production Bio-fuels Macro economic factors Fuel prices Hardware prices Externalities System prices electricity district heat hydrogen biofuels Energy demand System optimization by minimising total system costs Costs of health related externalities Costs of other externalities (climate change, nature etc.)

4. Geography –Countries –regions –areas Time resolution –e.g. 5 years step simulation –52 weeks with 5 time steps Endogenous investments –power/heating plants –heat storage –electrolysers, heat pumps –transmission lines …etc. Balmorel

5. Linear optimisation model of the energy system Minimising total yearly costs in the system Constraints – balance equations, like: –power balance (at any time step production has to equal demand) –heat balance –hydrogen balance etc. and limitations, like: –resource limits (e.g. max available biomass resource) Balmorel

6. Electricity District heat Hydrogen Bio-fuels Energy production Car Bus Train Air Sea Trucks Vans Train Sea Air people goods Transport Household Industry, trade and service Appliances Heat loss Heat supply Appliances Heat loss Heat supply Proces energy Air emissions and waste products Fuel costs, investment costs, taxes, externalities

7. Linear optimisation models Will always choose the cheapest solution If no restrictions/constraints, there will be one dominating technology Example of change in costs for power producing technologies when including externalities – using www.recabs.orgwww.recabs.org

8. Biomass Offshore wind Gas CC CHP Coal CHP

9. www.recabs.org Biomass Offshore wind Gas CC CHP Coal CHP

10. CO2-price = 300 DKK/t ~ 40 €/t Some Balmorel results Wind and biomass

11. CO2-price = 150 DKK/t ~ 20 €/t Some Balmorel results Wind and coal

12. Some Balmorel results

13. Tank you for your attention

14. Seeking Collaboration Partners Global energy and emission scenarios Global/regional air pollution modelling Regional/local air pollution modelling Effects in Denmark regional energy/emission scenarios Within CEEH Outside CEEH “Optimal” future energy system

15. Balmorel (www.balmorel.com) Global scenarios IPCC Boundary conditions