1. COMT Project meeting Ecological Forecasting, Existing status of CBEPS (Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System), Future developments of CBEPS, Plan for update of ROMS physics and biogeochemistry Raleigh Hood, Christopher Brown, Wen Long, Jiangtao Xu, John Jacobs, Bob Wood, Xinsheng Zhang, Jerry Wiggert, M. Bala Krishna Prasad, Lyon Lanerolle, and Hao Wang Originally Funded by the NOAA Ecological Forecasting and MERHAB programs

2.  Chesapeake Bay Ecological Forecasting System (CBEPS): Overview, Status and Future Efforts  UMCES COMT Project Tasks: 1) Migrate ChesROMS to ROMS version 4.0 2) Update and publish ChesROMS BGC model 3) Generate 25-year hindcast full BGC run 4) Incorporate new ChesROMS into CBEPS and SourceForge Outline:

3.  Chesapeake Bay Ecological Forecasting System (CBEPS): Overview, Status and Future Efforts  UMCES COMT Project Tasks: 1) Migrate ChesROMS to ROMS version 4.0 2) Update and publish ChesROMS BGC model 3) Generate 25-year hindcast full BGC run 4) Incorporate new ChesROMS into CBEPS and SourceForge Outline:

4. CBEPS Motivation and Potential Applications:  At present, provide “operational” nowcasts and short-term (3- day) forecasts of Sea Nettle, HAB, pathogen and also physical and biogeochemical properties for research, management and public uses in Chesapeake Bay.  Sea Nettle forecasts have been transitioned to 24/7 true operational mode in NOAA using CBOFS.  Can be used to predict fish habitat quality.  There is potential to extend this system to include toxin and contaminant transport, transformation and even human exposure.

5. Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System and Model Framework (NCBO -> UMCES)  The core is a coupled hydrodynamic/biogeochemical model (ChesROMS) that is running “operationally” now at UMCES (formally supported by NOAA/NCBO).  Solution advanced daily using a perfect restart with ROMS version 3.0.  Baywide nowcasts and 3 day forecasts of temperature, salinity, biogeochemical properties and ecological forecasts (Sea Nettles, HABS and pathogens) are generated daily.  Use real time river discharge from USGS for nowcasts.  River flows persisted for 3 days for 3 day forecasts.  Atmospheric forcing for 3-day forecasts are from the North American Meteorological Model (NAM).  Use simple seasonal concentration climatologies combined with flow for BGC boundary conditions.

6. ChesROMS Implementation and Availability  Chesapeake Bay implementation of the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS version 3.0).  Curvilinear horizontal grid (100 * 150).  Sigma-coordinate vertical grid (20 levels).  Includes all major tributaries.  Both hindcast and operational implementations.  Open Source (SourceForge).

7. ChesROMS Prototype Operational Biogeochemical Model  Based on Fennel et al. core model bundled with ROMS  NPZD type model with oxic sediment denitrification  Added DON  ISS loading  Atmospheric N deposition  Diffuse N sources  Anoxic benthic denitrification  Water column denitrification, Manuscript in preparation, Wiggert et al. (2014)

8. Four Empirical Habitat Models for Ecological Forecasts Karlodinium veneficum (Brown et al. 2013) Neural Network based on T and S, and time of year Vibrio cholera (Constantin de Magny et al., 2010) Sea Nettles (Decker et al, 2007) logistic regression model, based on T and S Vibrio vulnificus (Jacobs et al., 2010) logistic regression model, based on T and S

9. Ecological Forecasts (Sea Nettles and V. vulnificus)  Sea Nettles (Chrysaora quinquecirrha) can become very abundant in Chesapeake Bay during summer and they sting people.  V. vulnificus infection is also a potential human health threat.  T and S strongly constrain sea nettle and V. vulnificus distributions.  Estimate (nowcast and forecast) T and S using ChesROMS.  Provides input to empirical logistic regression models that predicts probability of sea nettle and V. vulnificus occurrence.

10. Nowcasting/Forecasting Sea Nettles: Brown et al. May 7th, 2012 nowcast  Nettle maps generated daily and posted on the WWW.  V. vulnificus maps are also generated but not currently posted publicly on the WWW.  Nowcasts.  3 day forecasts.  Probabilities are low bay wide for Sea Nettles and V. vulnificus (still too cold). http://chesapeakebay.noaa.gov/forecasting-sea-nettles

11. Nowcasting/Forecasting Temperature: Brown et al. May 7th, 2012 nowcast  Surface temperature maps generated daily and posted on the WWW.  Nowcasts.  3 day forecasts.  Temperatures (below 20 o ) are too cold for both Sea Nettles and V. vulnificus. http://chesapeakebay.noaa.gov/forecasting-sea-nettles

12. Nowcasting/Forecasting Salinity: Brown et al. May 7th, 2012 nowcast  Surface salinity maps generated daily and posted on the WWW.  Nowcasts.  3 day forecasts.  Habitable salinities for Sea Nettles (10 to 20) extend from Tangier Island to the Bay Bridge.  Habitable salinities for V. vulnificus are similar, but slightly lower. http://chesapeakebay.noaa.gov/forecasting-sea-nettles

13. ChesROMS outputs ‏ Striped Bass Squeeze Model Zhang et al., NOAA Oxford Cooperative Lab Good Habitat Bad Habitat Habitat quality based on habitat suitability & bioenergetics Habitat quality nowcast/forecast

14. There is potential to extend this system to include pathogen, toxin and contaminant transport, transformation and even human exposure  Transport via modeled hydrodynamics.  Transformation via modeled water column and sediment biogeochemistry and photochemisty.  Human exposure assessed by modeling the intersection between human populations/behavior and predicted pathogen or toxin/contaminant distributions.

15.  Chesapeake Bay Ecological Forecasting System (CBEPS): Overview, Status and Current Efforts  UMCES COMT Project Tasks: 1) Migrate ChesROMS to ROMS version 4.0 2) Update and publish ChesROMS BGC model 3) Generate 25-year hindcast full BGC run 4) Incorporate new ChesROMS into CBEPS and SourceForge Outline:

16. Migrate ChesROMS to ROMS 4.0 Leverage Cathy Feng’s and Marjy Friedrich’s prior work (ChesNENA -> ChesROMS):  Adopt existing ROMS 4.0 (ChesNENA) implementation in Chesapeake Bay.  Especially need to adopt model configuration/options, advection scheme, turbulence closure, and physical model tuning.  This should save us many months and possibly years of work!

17. Update and Publish ChesROMS BGC Model: Leverage Cathy Feng’s and Marjy Friedrich’s prior work (ChesNENA -> ChesROMS):  ChesNENA is running our BGC model (correct?).  Need to start with their BGC model parameter settings.  This should also save us many months and possibly years of work!  Update to the latest version of the BGC model (Jerry’s version).  Also, get Jerry’s model published.

18. Generate 25-yr Full BGC Run: Leverage Malcom Scully’s work?  Atmospheric forcing.  River boundary conditions.  Open ocean boundary conditions.  This should also save us many months and possibly years of work!  We will generate BGC model boundary conditions.

19. Incorporate New ChesROMS/ChesNENA model into CBEPS and SourceForge:  Replace ChesROMS 3.0 with 4.0 and new BGC in CBEPS.  Replace ChesROMS 3.0 with 4.0 and new BGC in SourceForge.  We we also implement simple oxygen models and compare them in operational mode?

20. Thank You