1. Not Protectively Marked Not Protectively Marked © BAE SYSTEMS 2009. All Rights Reserved An Agile Approach to Directing Product Development Strategy against an Uncertain Future Kevin Smith Operational Analysis Manager, Advanced Projects, Military Air Solutions 26 ISMOR

2. Not Protectively Marked Not Protectively Marked © BAE SYSTEMS 2009. All Rights Reserved Contents & Scope –Dimensions of Uncertainty for Industry –Outline the Analysis Approach –Summarise Key points Utilise Unmanned Aircraft Systems as the application example throughout - Many uncertain dimensions to analysis process

3. Not Protectively Marked Not Protectively Marked © BAE SYSTEMS 2009. All Rights Reserved Key Dimensions of Uncertainty 1.Market –Military, Civil or Commercial customer? –Budget available? 2.Requirements (i.e. User Requirements) –Known, evolving … –Similar across users or discrete? –Expressed differently by alternative Customers 3.Solution –Product or service? –What product?

4. Not Protectively Marked Not Protectively Marked © BAE SYSTEMS 2009. All Rights Reserved Market Analysis – Key Criteria 1. 2.

5. Not Protectively Marked Not Protectively Marked © BAE SYSTEMS 2009. All Rights Reserved Market Analysis – Result Template - by country - by timescale - by …

6. Not Protectively Marked Not Protectively Marked © BAE SYSTEMS 2009. All Rights Reserved Requirements: Establish Global User Capability Taxonomy Traceable to Customer terminology Civil Taxonomies or Applications Military Capability Taxonomies AUS Military Capability Taxonomies US Home Markets End User Capability Taxonomy Military Specific ‘Functionally’ Common Civil & Commercial Specific UR 1UR 2 107 UAS Applications UR 3UR 4 UR 104 UR 105 UR 106 UR 107 Generic role 1Generic role 2Generic role 9 UR 1UR 2 107 UAS Applications UR 3UR 4 UR 104 UR 105 UR 106 UR 107 Generic role 1Generic role 2Generic role 9 UR 1UR 2 UAS Applications UR 3UR 4 UR 104 UR 105 UR 106 UR 107 Generic role 1Generic role 2Generic role 9 Bottom-up exploratory Military Capability Taxonomies UK

7. Not Protectively Marked Not Protectively Marked © BAE SYSTEMS 2009. All Rights Reserved Combat Intensity & Scale Geographic Spread Military Operations – Historical Projections

8. Not Protectively Marked Not Protectively Marked © BAE SYSTEMS 2009. All Rights Reserved Combat Intensity & Scale Geographic Spread 1996 Cold War NATO South NATO North Coalition National Coalition Inter State Conflict Nuclear Non Nuclear

9. Not Protectively Marked Not Protectively Marked © BAE SYSTEMS 2009. All Rights Reserved Combat Intensity & Scale Geographic Spread Later… NATO South Coalition National Coalition National NATO National UN Inter State Conflict Civil Conflict

10. Not Protectively Marked Not Protectively Marked © BAE SYSTEMS 2009. All Rights Reserved Combat Intensity & Scale Geographic Spread Even Later… NATO South Coalition National Coalition National NATO National UN EU Coalition UN Coalition UK / FR Inter State Conflict Civil Conflict

11. Not Protectively Marked Not Protectively Marked © BAE SYSTEMS 2009. All Rights Reserved Combat Intensity & Scale Geographic Spread Today / Future Coalition National NATO National UN EU Coalition UN Coalition UK / FR Coalition EU National UN EU Coalition International Terrorism WMD Proliferation

12. Not Protectively Marked Not Protectively Marked © BAE SYSTEMS 2009. All Rights Reserved Requirements: The Uncertain Future Security Environment –In future there may be: –A lower probability of high threat scenarios involving conventional warfighting –A potential increase in nuclear armed states leading to wider regional instabilities and hence International Conflict –A reduced incidence of interstate warfare between established states that are internationally recognised –An increased potential for intrastate conflict & warfare in less advanced states –An increase in criminal and irregular activity associated with failed or failing states –Consequently there may be: –An increased demand for Intervention & Stabilisation Operations which highlight the increasing importance & value of CIMIC –An increase in Counterinsurgency Operations which may also arise as a consequence of intervention –An increase in Maritime Security Operations to counter smuggling, piracy, irregular activity and in response to contentious sea control activities by developing maritime powers –An increase in covert operations around the world to counter terrorism and to counter proliferation of WMD –An increase in proxy wars and the use of “private” security

13. Not Protectively Marked Not Protectively Marked © BAE SYSTEMS 2009. All Rights Reserved Coyote Solutions: Alternate VTOL UAVs (for Maritime) Camcopter Integrator Fulmar ScanEagle SAAB Skeldar EADS Sharc BAES IAV2 EADS Orka HETEL Ampersand CQ-10B SnowGoose K-Max Fire Scout Hummingbird X-2 X-49A Concept Groen Hawk 4 Eagle Eye CarterCopter AD-150

14. Not Protectively Marked Not Protectively Marked © BAE SYSTEMS 2009. All Rights Reserved Core Analysis process: Capability To Solution Translation Framework Operational Capability Measures – ‘URD’ System performance Characteristics (SRD) Parameters / emphasis driven by Operational Use - Customer / role specific Trade-offs required within solution development Assess Solution Derive Solution

15. Not Protectively Marked Not Protectively Marked © BAE SYSTEMS 2009. All Rights Reserved Overall Analysis Process Market Definition Global ‘End User’ Capability Taxonomy Accessible Market Needs Solution Assessment Solutions Portfolio Solution Development Competition Performance Assessment New Solution or Enhanced Solution

16. Not Protectively Marked Not Protectively Marked © BAE SYSTEMS 2009. All Rights Reserved Generic Capability L1 Analysis Rigour – Confidence & Resource Customer Specific Capability Qualitative / parameter based SME Opinion Effectiveness in Customer Environment Analysis Tools SE Experimentation Visualisation & Promotion in Customer Representative Environment Operational Evaluation / Warfighting Fidelity Time Cost Is it viable ? Should we ? Might it sell ? Just how good is it ? Analysis fidelity must be driven by Confidence requirement / Business risk, matched to resources available … L2 L3 L4

17. Not Protectively Marked Not Protectively Marked © BAE SYSTEMS 2009. All Rights Reserved Example Level 2 Parameter Framework: Range & Responsiveness

18. Not Protectively Marked Not Protectively Marked © BAE SYSTEMS 2009. All Rights Reserved UK Maritime UAS – L4 Approach required! Maritime/Littoral Scenario Development (Nigeria) Generic Naval Task Group Roles and Functions Systems v Roles Evaluation Force Mixes ~6 Solutions: - Existing manned systems - Future manned/unmanned systems - BAES UAS Portfolio - Other manned/unmanned (gaps) RN/RM Plans, Practice & Doctrine Establish likely fleet/market size Derive Maritime UAS Requirements Watching brief on other nations* Understand Naval Ops Explore Force-Mix Solutions * USA, Australia, Canada, EU/NATO, India Vignettes Concept Suitability Filter Analysis of Force-Mix Solutions Exploit Analysis Product developmentNew concepts Preferred System-of-Systems System-of-Systems Formulation Qualitative Analysis Force Mix Quantities & Costs

19. Not Protectively Marked Not Protectively Marked © BAE SYSTEMS 2009. All Rights Reserved Summary –Objective, scaleable, evidence-based approach enabling/driving an integrated UAS solution portfolio development –Enables the alignment to market needs of – –Concept development & new concept generation –Product investment (inc technology) planning –Integrated UAS portfolio marketing –Critically, it is –A self-consistent analysis across the Global operation –Underpinned by Information / Knowledge management –Rationale, traceable, agile –Rigorous where necessary

20. Not Protectively Marked Not Protectively Marked © BAE SYSTEMS 2009. All Rights Reserved Questions ? Kevin.smith@baesystems.com 01772 855168